Cotton producers: Advance crop sales… Cotton futures have set back from multi-year highs amid a move lower across the ag complex. Fundamental support looks shaky as the export book is slim and domestic use is light. We advise producers to take advantage of the rally and sell another 10% of expected 2026 production. You should now be 70% forward sold on anticipated 2026 production. We look to initiate 2027 sales soon. Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for our marketing plan.
The U.S. national average diesel price hit a record $5.82 a gallon on Thursday, according to fuel price-tracking service GasBuddy, surpassing the previous peak of $5.819 set on June 17, 2022, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis, at GasBuddy in an X post.
The move underscores how fuel prices, particularly diesel, have surged as a result of the Iran war while crude oil prices have remained elevated yet relatively range-bound. The Iran war has done more to choke off the supply of refined products from the Gulf, while curtailed crude flows have left refiners in Asia and Europe struggling to meet demand. Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports, further limiting global supply. Historically, Russia has been the world’s second-largest diesel exporter after the U.S.
The timing of the diesel surge just ahead of harvest is another pain point for farmers as they deal with rising input costs. Rising diesel prices have also stoked fears of inflationary pressures due to the fuel’s essential role in agriculture and transportation. Diesel prices are up around 60% over the past 12 months.
Vice President JD Vance told reporters at the White House on Thursday that gas prices are high because the Iranian regime is targeting oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Vance claimed that gas prices “could have been much much higher were it not for our efforts” and downplayed the notion that the world is currently experiencing an energy crisis, Politico reported.
“I can’t repeat this enough, but for the leadership of President Trump and the hard work of our troops, we would have had an energy crisis because the Iranians refused to stop acting like terrorists in the Strait of Hormuz,” Vance said.
Market recap: Grain futures saw heavy overnight selling pressure after Russian President Vladimir Putin said there was a chance of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister told reporters in Kyiv that there’s a “new dynamic in the peace efforts, with the return of this active phase of political and diplomatic engagement in many capitals around the world,” Reuters reported. Skepticism on the prospects for an agreement runs high, but the potential for a truce to free up grain exports via the Black Sea region that have been severely curtailed due to escalating attacks by the two sides sparked follow-through liquidation, particularly in wheat futures.
- December soft red winter wheat fell 19 ¾ cents to end at $7.54 ¼, while December hard red winter wheat lost 18 ¾ cents to $8.15 ½ and December spring wheat futures dropped 16 ½ cents to $7.67 ½.
- December corn fell 2 ¾ cents to $5.40 ¾, but ended well off session lowers as dip buyers quickly emerged.
- November soybeans shrugged off early selling to rise 6 cents, ending at $13.16 1/4
- December cotton futures tumbled 248 points to 86.45 cents.
- October live cattle rose $4.125 to $214.30, nearer the daily high. November feeder cattle rose $6.95 to $315.30, nearer the daily high.
- October lean hog futures fell $0.325 to $83.45, nearer the daily low.
July ethanol exports down 3%: U.S. ethanol exports inched down 3% to 199.5 million gallons (mg) in July as sizable swings among key markets largely offset one another, the Refined Fuels Association said Thursday.
- Canada remained the leading destination, despite shipments declining 5% to 74.4 mg. It accounted for 37% of total U.S. ethanol exports and 61% of denatured fuel ethanol exports, the RFA said.
- Exports to the European Union dropped 18% to 50.4 mg, with most shipments entering through the Netherlands. The EU remained the principal destination for undenatured fuel ethanol, RFA said.
- Exports to Vietnam expanded sixfold to a record-high of 18.6 mg.
- Exports to the United Kingdom declined 14% to 12.8 mg.
- Exports to South Korea nearly doubled to 11.5 mg.
- India received 10.8 mg—the first substantial volume shipped there in four months.
Together, these six markets accounted for 9 out of every 10 gallons shipped in July, RFA said. U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed coproduct generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, were effectively unchanged from June at 1.10 million metric tons (mt).
House Ag chair wants another term: House Agriculture Chair G.T. Thompson is seeking a waiver to continue as the panel’s top Republican next year, despite a term limit, Politico reported, citing a letter he sent to top Republicans on Wednesday. In the letter, Thompson asked the House GOP steering committee of leadership and other senior Republicans to grant him the waiver to build on the series of “major wins” Republicans have delivered in recent years. “It is my temperament and willingness to roll up my sleeves to get the job done, which still positions me as the best member of the Republican conference to lead the House Committee on Agriculture,” Thompson wrote, according to the report. Politico noted the move is seen as certain to set off a scramble by other senior Republicans who have been angling for the role. Under House GOP conference rules, members can’t serve more than three terms as the top member of a committee.
Tyson cuts guidance, cites cattle outlook: Tyson Foods cut its outlook for revenue growth Thursday, citing expectations for a bigger-than-expected loss in its beef business. The company said it expects fiscal 2026 revenue to grow by 1.5% to 2% versus an earlier forecast of 2.5% to 3.5%, according to the Wall Street Journal. Tyson now expects its beef segment to generate an adjusted operating loss of $625 million to $725 million for the fiscal year, after previously guiding for a loss of $500 million to $650 million.
- “The revised outlook is primarily driven by significant margin compression amid volatile cattle prices and one of the most severe cattle shortages in U.S. history, as well as the expected impact of lower cattle prices on the value of live cattle inventories,” the company said.