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A top USDA official said payments to farmers under the $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program announced by President Donald Trump earlier this week should be out in November. Richard Fordyce, undersecretary for farm production and conservation, told AgriTalk host Chip Flory on Friday that the new fuel relief program is aimed squarely at fuel costs incurred in the field, not in transportation.
“This program is specifically for helping offset the cost of additional diesel fuel in a farming operation. It’s more specifically for that in-field operation,” Fordyce says. “If we think about a typical corn production system, you’ve got to prepare the ground in a certain way, whether that’s chemical, tillage or whatever, and then planting, certainly, the maintenance of that crop throughout the growing season and then ultimately harvest.”
Payment rates will be similar to the bridge assistance program announced late last year and are expected to be out in November. A second tranche will be for specialty crops.
Weekly recap: Corn saw renewed pressure, while soybean futures attempted to stabilize heading into the weekend. Soybeans on Thursday snapped an eight-day losing streak, while corn ended a similar slide the previous session. Both have felt commercial hedge pressure as farmers took advantage of clear weather to continue catching up on harvest activity across the Corn Belt. The drop in prices has attracted buyers, with China maintaining a stream of soybean purchases and weekly data showing strong corn exports. Wheat futures remained under pressure on a reduced Black Sea war premium, Southern Hemisphere harvest activity and a continued dearth in U.S. export demand. Live and feeder cattle futures hit three-month highs on strong cash trade and concerns over feeder numbers before pausing ahead of this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report (see item below). Lean hog futures hit a series of contract lows, dogged by weak cash fundamentals.
- December corn fell 4 ½ cents to end at $4.56, its lowest close in over three months and down 18 ¼ cents on the week.
- November soybeans rose 3 ½ cents to $12.56 ½, for a weekly fall of 4 ¾ cents. December soybean meal fell $1.20 to $346.10, shedding $11 for the week, while December soybean oil lost 9 points to end at 66.83 cents, a 30 cent weekly loss.
- December soft red winter wheat eked out a ¼ cent gain to close at $6.25, for a weekly loss of 35 ½ cents. December hard red winter wheat lost 1 ¼ cents to close at $6.64 ½, hitting a more than three month low and shedding 39 ½ cents for the week. December spring wheat lost ¼ cent to close at $6.41 ½, down 35 cents on the week.
- December cotton fell 49 points to end at 80.20 cents, a gain of 20 points on the week.
- December live cattle finished unchanged at $231.125, leaving it with a weekly gain of $2.775. November feeders rose $1.20 to $348.125, gaining $6.225 for the week.
- December lean hog futures lost $0.025 to end at $65.575, seeing very mild short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday.
Oops, USDA acknowledges “processing error”... In a late Friday afternoon announcement, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said it “found a processing error that affected September corn plant populations, ear counts, yields, and production for Kansas and Nebraska.” The agency said the error also affected the September 10-state averages for plant populations and ear counts, along with U.S. corn yield and production forecasts. USDA, however, didn’t elaborate on what the error was. And while it corrected the error in the September data, USDA said its October corn yield and production estimates will stand. “The October forecasts published on October 9 were reviewed, validated, and have not changed,” USDA said.
Read: USDA Admits Corn Data Error in September Report, But Controversial 181.2-Bu. Yield Forecast Stands
Oil surges to highest since April… December Brent crude, the global benchmark, advanced another 3.1% Friday to close at $116.72 a barrel, logging a 6.2% weekly gain and ending at its highest since April 29. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose 3.8% to $103.27 a barrel, up 4.3% for the week. Volatility in energy markets was driven in part by fears of a re-escalation of U.S.-Iran hostilities and threats by Tehran to widen attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure. Reports said the U.S. and Israel were planning renewed attacks on Iran following next month’s midterm elections, while strikes on Saudi Arabia by Iran-backed Houthi rebels continued. Iran has warned publicly and via private diplomatic channels that renewed strikes by the U.S. and Israel would prompt attacks on airports, pipelines and other economic infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, the Wall Street Journal reported. The report said analysts estimate Iran has hundreds to thousands of ballistic missiles, and that U.S. and regional officials believe it has resumed production of ballistic missiles in limited numbers using stockpiled components and working in underground facilities.
10-year Treasury yield ends week below 5%... Surging oil prices and volatile trade in tech stocks, where fears of an AI bubble appear to be on the rise alongside concerns about credit exposure, prompted a Thursday flight to safety that saw the yield on the 10-year Treasury note drop nearly 20 basis points (yields move opposite of Treasury prices). Traders significantly scaled back bets the Federal Reserve will raise rates when policy makers meet next week. While a decline in yields, all else being equal, tends to be viewed as a positive for equity and commodity markets, the implications of Thursday’s turnabout aren’t entirely clear.
- “If Treasury markets are reacting to some sort of credit problem related to AI and tech, then that’s actually going to be a much bigger issue going forward,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.
Trump drops some Canada tariffs… The White House on Friday said the Trump administration is dropping some tariffs on Canadian goods, but “replacing” them with levies on other products. CNBC noted the move came after Sen. Susan Collins, R-Me., who is locked in a tight re-election battle, took credit for pushing the administration to issue tariff exemptions on Canadian imports that she called “crucial” to her state’s industries. Collins’ Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, blamed Collins for enabling Trump’s tariff policies, saying she “now wants credit for bringing a cup of water to put out the fire.”
A White House fact sheet said the proclamation removes “certain products — such as plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment, and certain packing crates and boxes — from the scope of the Section 338 tariffs and replaces those products with certain valves, carpets, waste products, and others.”