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Diesel prices haven’t come down significantly despite a number of measures aimed at easing pressure on fuel markets, the Wall Street Journal noted. Wholesale diesel benchmarks in the U.S. and Europe have doubled in the year to date, while distillate crack spreads, a key measure of U.S. diesel refining margins, remain above $100 a barrel. The Journal noted that U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, stood at about 102.6 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 9, according to the Energy Information Administration, down 12% from a year earlier. The shortfall was even more pronounced on the East Coast, where inventories were more than 22% lower than a year earlier.
A temporary agreement by President Trump to ease energy sanctions, enabling Russia to resume limited diesel exports, is expected to provide minimal relief, the report noted. The deal allows for roughly 100,000 barrels per day in October and 125,000 barrels per day in November—a fraction of Russia’s 800,000 barrels per day exported last year. Energy intelligence firm Kpler estimates the global diesel market faces a daily supply deficit of about 1 million barrels, leaving markets vulnerable ahead of winter.
Weekly recap… Corn futures kicked off the week with a bounce after getting routed in the wake of a surprisingly bearish Oct. 9 WASDE report, but then proceeded to slowly edge lower on harvest pressure, a spike higher by the U.S. dollar and a lack of fresh demand news. November soybeans held their ground after the WASDE but sank to six-week lows this week despite renewed Chinese buying. Wheat futures also saw pressure, with improved soil moisture expected to speed planting while aiding the crop already in the ground. Traders continue to monitor fighting between Russia and Ukraine that has closed off Black Sea exports. Live cattle rallied to a nine-week high on firm cash expectations, while lean hogs saw more contract lows on weak cash hog fundamentals.
- December corn fell 3 ¾ cents to end at $4.74 ¼, logging its lowest finish in two months and posting a weekly loss of 5 ½ cents.
- November soybeans fell 1 ¾ cents to finish at $12.61 ¼, hitting a six week low and falling 30 ¾ cents on the week.
- December soybean meal lost $2.70 to $357.10 for a weekly decline of $8.50.
- December soybean oil edged down 2 points to 67.13 cents, leaving the contract 89 points lower on the week.
- December soft red winter wheat fell 9 ½ cents to close at $6.60 ½, hitting a two-month low and losing 10 ½ cents on the week.
- December hard red winter wheat dropped 9 cents to $7.04, notching a three-month low and a weekly loss of 15 ¼ cents.,
- December spring wheat declined 9 ½ cents to $6.76 ½, falling 18 ¾ cents for the week.
Low-carbon marine fuel demand cools… Shippers’ appetite for lower-carbon marine fuels has weakened as the fate of a regulatory emissions framework from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) remained cloudy while some are using carbon credits, Reuters reported, citing industry executives. IMO member nations are set to meet by early November on the formal adoption of a net-zero framework to guide the industry towards zero carbon emissions by 2050, after last year’s vote to delay the move. The report said that demand for marine biofuel, a more readily available alternative fuel on which shippers have focused more, has softened this year at the world’s largest bunker hub of Singapore. Marine biofuel sales at the port totaled about 603,000 tons between January and September, down 47% from the corresponding 2025 period, government data showed. Total 2025 volumes had more than doubled from 2024.
U.S. Mexico-trade snag?... Momentum toward a U.S.-Mexico trade deal has stalled due to opposition from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. News reports had described the U.S. and Mexico as zeroing in on a deal that could cut tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles in exchange for a series of concessions from Mexico. The Journal said progress has slowed significantly, with Lutnick objecting to significant reductions in the 25% tariff on Mexican autos and 50% levies on aluminum and steel, as well as to reduced tariffs on “derivative products” such as finished steel and aluminum products. Officials from both sides have denied any impasse, but the report described Lutnick’s position as a significant obstacle to a deal after months of talks led by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Mexico is the top export destination for U.S pork, corn and wheat exports and the second-largest buyer of soybeans after China.
Lamb industry seeks trade relief… Lamb industry representatives told the U.S. International Trade Commission Friday that sheep ranchers are substantially injured due to low-priced, high-quantity lamb imports, mainly from Australia and New Zealand, Agri-Pulse reported. The ITC launched a Section 201 investigation to determine if domestic lamb meat producers need tariff relief after a request from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The investigation covers fresh, chilled or frozen lamb meat. The report said Paul Rosenthal, the chair of law firm Kelley Drye, told the ITC injury hearing that lambs imported from Australia and New Zealand are the biggest threat to the domestic industry because they have “entered the U.S. market in increasing volumes and low prices, causing serious injury to the domestic producers.”
Read more about the controversy around USDA’s October Crop Production report, next year’s acreage debate and find the latest in-depth market analysis in this week’s Pro Farmer newsletter.