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Crop scouts have returned from the fields and the tabulations are being made for the final leg of the 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour through Iowa and Minnesota, completing a seven-state sweep that offers the first comprehensive, field-level look at U.S. crop potential. In fact, it’s the concerns about the lack of potential for the corn crop that has grabbed the attention of the grain market. Corn futures have rallied this week after a series of underwhelming results, while a particularly steep fall in the Tour’s estimate of the Illinois corn yield Wednesday night helped propel the December contract to its first close above $5 since May (see item below).
Initial results from western Iowa on Wednesday night raised concerns about the state’s ability to produce the record corn yield forecast by USDA. Tune in at 7:55 p.m. here to see the results from Iowa and Minnesota. Pro Farmer will release its national corn and soybean estimates Friday afternoon.
Market recap: Soybean pod counts in Illinois and western Iowa were also mostly down relative to last year but remained above the three-year average, leaving the crop with potential if weather cooperates over the next few weeks.
- December corn ended 5 1/2 cents higher at $5.03 1/2.
- November soybeans lost 3/4 of a cent after hitting a three-week high.
- September soft red winter wheat rose 2 1/2 cents to $6.82 3/4.
- December cotton lost a point to 88.34 cents.
- October live cattle rose 77.5 cents to $218, while September feeder cattle lost 20 cents to $329.925.
- October lean-hot futures fell $1.275 to $80.225.
See After the Bell for a full rundown of Thursday’s price action.
Sonora screwworm case: The detection of New World Screwworm in the Mexican state of Sonora on Wednesday threatens to complicate the planned Aug. 24 reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to Mexican cattle imports, reports Angie Denton of Drovers. Sonora is just south of Arizona. The case was reported in a cow in the southern region of the state. USDA has previously emphasized that the reopening schedule is flexible and could be paused if authorities detect an increased risk on either side of the border.
Walmart warning: Disappointing earnings from Walmart sent shares of the largest U.S. retailer sliding more than 9% on Thursday, dragging down major stock indexes. The company reported the weakest sales growth in six years, amplifying concerns about the strength of the consumer – a particular concern for the cattle market where signs of resistance to higher beef prices have begun to emerge. A recent Bloomberg report noted beef sales volume fell 0.3% in the 13 weeks ending in mid-July while sales volumes for less expensive proteins rose 2%.
Bond yields defy buybacks: Treasury yields snapped back higher on Thursday, defying an effort by the Treasury Department to stem a selloff that has taken long-term yields to their highest levels in years. Yields had retreated sharply on Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to double buybacks of the securities (yields and bond prices move opposite each other). Rising yields are seen as a sign of worry over mounting U.S.debt levels. U.S. national debt hit a record $40 trillion, the Treasury Department announced Wednesday. Turmoil in the bond market can send ripples through financial and commodity markets.