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“Underwhelming” was a word used often on Wednesday by crop scouts reporting in from fields in Illinois and western Iowa on Wednesday. If that’s borne out in results this evening it will continue a pattern of lackluster corn yields and soybean pod counts. The two “I” states are the juggernauts of the Corn Belt and follow lackluster showings for Ohio, Indiana, South Dakota and Nebraska. The eastern Corn Belt results have been the most eye-opening, with yields and pod counts both down from last year’s Tour results in Ohio and Indiana – in contrast to USDA’s August estimate, which had forecast corn and soybean yields for both states to rise from last year.
Tune in at 7:55 p.m. CT here to see whether Illinois and western Iowa can pick up the slack.
Check out: Recaps of yesterday’s Tour stops from Chip Flory and Brent Judisch.
Market recap: Grain and soy complex futures continued to find support on disappointing corn yields and pod counts over the first two days of the Tour. Outside markets provided a tailwind for the entire commodity sector (see item below).
- December corn rallied a dime to $4.98 for its highest close in 3 months.
- November soybeans gained 20 ½ cents to $12.37 ¼, hitting a for-the-move high.
- September soybean meal rose $5.90 to $318.90.
- September soybean oil up 17 points to 69.86 cents.
- September SRW up 15 ¾ cents to $6.80 1/4.
- September HRW up 18 ¼ cents at $7.62.
- Spring wheat futures up 17 ¾ cents at $6.94.
- December cotton futures surged 294 points to 88.35 cents.
- October live cattle fell $1.70 to $217.225 September feeder cattle lost $4.225 to $329.125.
- October lean hog futures rose 77.5 cents to $81.50.
‘All the options’: Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Senate Agriculture Committee Republicans are examining “all the options” to move a farm bill through committee following a failed attempt earlier this month, though the “ideal way” would be to hold another vote with Sen. Mitch McConnell present once lawmakers return after the August recess, Agri-Pulse reported. McConnell, R-Ky., has been absent from the Senate since suffering a fall in June.
“We’re looking at all the options,” Thune told reporters at DakotaFest in Mitchell, the report said. “Obviously, without handicapping it too much at this point, the ideal way would be if we can get Senator McConnell back when we get back and then just get it reported out of the committee and then we’ll figure out from there the best path forward.”
Surprise move roils markets: Treasury yields fell sharply after the Treasury Department unexpectedly said it would double bond buybacks. That also put pressure on the dollar. Both lower yields and a weaker currency tend to be positives for commodities. Gold jumped over $100 an ounce, while crude oil also remained firm on concerns over the Middle East. Rising yields have been a source of alarm in financial markets, tied in part to worries over budget deficits and debt in the U.S. and much of the world. While yields, which move opposite to bond prices, dived following Wednesday’s announcement, it’s doubtful intervention alone can keep a lid on rates.
Broader support for rate hikes: Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, which saw three policymakers dissent in favor of a rate hike as a majority voted to hold steady, revealed that others would be prepared to vote in favor of an increase if inflation doesn’t abate.
- “Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” the minutes said.
- “Participants judged that their inflation outlooks were highly uncertain and that inflation risks were skewed to the upside. Many participants noted that the recent re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East significantly clouded the inflation outlook,” the summary said.