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USDA’s weekly crop progress data released Monday afternoon showed the corn harvest still lags behind the historical pace as it enters the home stretch, while winter wheat conditions showed notable improvement.
- USDA said 81% of the corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 74% a week earlier but behind the 84% forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and behind the five-year average of 86% for this time of year. Iowa’s harvest was 72% complete, well behind the average of 89%, while Nebraska was 74% complete, 10 percentage points behind average.
- USDA pegged soybean harvest at 92% finished, up from 88% a week earlier. It was two percentage points behind the average estimate but a percentage point ahead of the five-year average.
- Winter wheat plantings were 89% complete, just below the 90% average estimate, which is also the five-year average. USDA said 49% of the winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent, up five percentage points from the previous week and topping the average estimate of 46%. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) for hard red winter wheat rose a substantial 11.29 points to 337.44 this week, with Kansas seeing the biggest gain. The crop condition index for SRW was 372.51,up 5.06 points from last week.
Market recap: Grain and soy complex futures continued to slide heading into Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, while cattle futures bounced back in line with a rebound by the stock market following last week’s AI-led Wall Street rout.
- December corn fell 2 ¼ cents to close at $4.39 ¼, finishing at a four-month low.
- January soybeans fell 5 ½ cents to close at $11.88 ¼, with December soybean meal up $1.50 to $320.70 and December soybean oil down 23 points to 62.03 cents – a seven-month low close.
- December soft red winter wheat lost 3 ¼ cents to end at $5.88 – the lowest close in four months. December hard red winter wheat finished unchanged and December spring wheat rose 6 ¼ cents.
- December cotton fell 33 points to 78.78 cents.
- December live cattle rose $2.15 to end at $216.20, after hitting an 11-month low for the contract on Friday. January feeders rose $5.80 to $324.175, bouncing of a six-week low set Friday.
- December lean hog futures gained $2.35 to end at $55.875, finding support on short covering after hitting a series of contract lows last week.
Cordonnier leaves South America estimates unchanged… Dr. Michael Cordonnier, Pro Farmer crop consultant, left his estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop unchanged at 182 million tons with a neutral bias. The growing season got off to a better than expected start given the presence of a strong El Nino. Predictions for above normal rainfall in southern Brazil proved accurate, causing problems for early crop development, while rainfall in central and northern areas has been somewhat better than expected, though soil moisture remains short in some areas, he said. “The estimate could go either way depending on the weather during November and December. He maintained his Argentine soybean production forecast a 54.0 MT with a neutral bias.
- Argentina may plant more corn… Argentina’s corn crop estimate was also left unchanged at 60 MT, with a neutral to higher bias. “It is still too early to tell for sure, but farmers in Argentina may end up planting more corn than originally intended,” Cordonnier wrote, noting that planting is running ahead of normal for this time of year. “In addition to being more profitable, another reason why they may plant more corn than anticipated is low numbers of corn leafhoppers.”
Disagreements may derail Trump-Putin-Xi summit… The U.S. and China disagree on the format of a proposed trilateral summit between President Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Beijing wants the meeting to be a tightly scripted affair, with each leader reading a prepared statement and providing little room for discussion, the report said. The Trump administration is pushing for a looser format that would allow a freer exchange between the three leaders, the report said.The differences between Beijing and Washington on the ground rules and agenda raise doubts about whether the extraordinary meeting will happen, according to the Journal, despite the U.S., China and Russia all expressing initial openness to the idea.
Tyson to restart Amarillo 2nd shift... Tyson Foods announced on Monday that it would partner with Allied Beef, a consortium of U.S. ranchers, to reopen a second production shift at its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility. The company said it had already started restoring select second shift operations and expects the shift to be fully operational by next summer. Tyson laid off thousands of workers and closed facilities earlier this year in response to historically tight cattle supplies and negative margins in its beef business. “Together, we plan to strengthen our beef production, creating value for American ranchers, and helping to ensure a reliable supply of high-quality beef for customers and consumers,” said Tyson Chief Operating Officer Wes Morris, in a news release. Allied Beef expects to create new opportunities for ranchers while helping to support the continued growth of beef production, the news release said. Reuters reported that Allied Beef is a group of ranchers and feeders located in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and other states.
China quotas dent JBS earnings… JBS NV saw improvement in its U.S. beef business, but it was offset by the impact from China’s import restrictions, the world’s largest meatpacker said Monday as it delivered weaker results in Brazil and Australia, Bloomberg reported. Both countries hit an annual quota limit on shipments into China earlier this year. The company’s U.S. beef unit booked adjusted losses of $2 million before items including interest and taxes, narrower than the $42 million loss in the same period of 2025, according to IFRS accounting standards, the report said. On a U.S. GAAP basis, the unit showed positive adjusted earnings. Overall, JBS reported adjusted earnings of 15 cents a share, down sharply from 52 cents a year earlier.
AI tool to double-check USDA estimates… USDA will use an artificial intelligence tool it built to check data in next week’s monthly crop production report, Reuters reported, amid growing farmer and trader distrust over the agency’s data reliability. After the USDA discovered errors in its corn data from September, officials determined the AI tool would have flagged the problem and decided to use it on the crop production report due on November 10, USDA Under Secretary Scott Hutchins told Reuters. “I’m very bullish on the fact that we’ll be able to utilize these tools in the future to help us avoid these kinds of really, truly unfortunate errors,” Hutchins said last week. USDA last month corrected its September corn production and yield data. The correction raised the yield estimate by about 3% in Nebraska, the third-biggest corn-producing state, and lowered it by about 2% in Kansas.