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Corn conditions unexpectedly improve... USDA rated the corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, up one percentage point from last week. Analysts expected no change. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 5%.
USDA reported the corn crop was 18% silking (15% average) and 3% in dough stage (2%).
Soybean conditions unchanged... USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, as analysts expected though there was a one-point increase in the top category. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 7%.
USDA reported the soybean crop was 96% emerged (98% average), 32% blooming (31%) and 8% setting pods (6%).
Spring wheat conditions unexpectedly decline... USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent,” down three points from last week, with all of the decline in the “good” category. Analysts expected no change. The “poor” to “very poor” rating increased one point to 15%.
USDA reported the spring wheat crop was 61% headed, three points ahead of the five-year average.
Winter wheat harvest passes halfway point but still behind... Winter wheat harvest advanced 16 points to 53%, though that was still one point behind the five-year average. Harvest stood at 83% in Texas (92% average), 83% in Oklahoma (96%) and 82% in Kansas (77%).
Cotton conditions improve... USDA rated the cotton crop as 52% “good” to “excellent,” up one point from last week, with the change in the “good” category. The “poor” to “very poor” rating held at 17%, though there was a one-point increase in the lowest category.
USDA reported the crop was 48% squaring (49% average) and 14% setting bolls (15%).
Trump to increase tariffs on Japan, South Korea... President Donald Trump on Monday said he would impose a 25% blanket tariff on all goods from Japan and South Korea starting on Aug. 1, posting letters to the leaders of those countries on his social media platform. The Aug. 1 deadline suggests there is still time to avoid the increased tariffs, though Trump hinted tariffs could rise beyond 25% if talks stall.
“Please understand that the 25% is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with your Country,” Trump wrote to the leaders of each country. “If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by will be added onto the 25% that we charge.”
About 12 more countries will receive trade letters like the ones sent to Japan and South Korea today, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. The countries receiving letters will be announced on Truth Social by Trump, Leavitt said.
First Argentine soymeal cargo to China... Bunge has chartered a 30,000 MT of Argentine soybean meal cargo destined for China, data seen by Reuters on Monday showed, which would mark the first shipment since Beijing approved Argentine soymeal imports in 2019. The small initial shipment is seen as test case and could potentially unlock more such trades in the future.
Bunge will ship the soymeal from the Terminal 6 facility it operates with Argentina’s AGD in San Lorenzo, north of the Rosario hub, where the vessel NORDTAJO is expected to dock around July 16 to transport the cargo.
China reroutes exports through Southeast Asia to evade Trump tariffs... China is increasingly rerouting its exports through Southeast Asia to circumvent the heavy tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to new data reported by the Financial Times. While the value of Chinese goods directly shipped to the U.S. has dropped sharply in 2025, Chinese exports to ASEAN countries and the European Union have jumped — suggesting that Chinese manufacturers are using neighboring countries as intermediaries to reach Western markets.
This shift highlights how Chinese companies are adapting their supply chains to avoid the brunt of U.S. tariffs. Exporters are either investing in factories in Southeast Asian countries or sending components there for final assembly, effectively disguising the Chinese origin of finished goods. U.S. officials have warned of a crackdown on this practice, but enforcement remains challenging given the complexity of global trade flows.
The trend also risks further trade friction, with Washington urging both ASEAN and EU governments to tighten oversight of origin labeling and transshipment practices. For China, the rerouting offers a temporary relief for its exporters, but it may add logistical costs and complicate long-term trade relationships.
Ag trade deficit widens as exports slide... The U.S. exported $13.75 billion of ag goods in May, while imports totaled $18.64 billion. This produced a May deficit of $4.88 billion — pushing the cumulative fiscal year (FY) 2025 shortfall to $29.7 billion, nearly matching the full-year deficit for FY 2024 ($31.8 billion) with four months still to go.
So far in FY 2025, ag exports have reached $122.4 billion against $152.1 billion in imports. USDA forecasts the full-year export total at $170.5 billion versus a record $220 billion in imports, projecting a record $49.5 billion deficit. To meet these forecasts, monthly exports would need to average $12.0 billion and imports $17.0 billion for the rest of the year. If recent trends continue, both exports and imports could exceed USDA’s current outlook.
U.S. beef, pork exports remain weak in May... The U.S. exported 228.9 million lbs. of beef during May, down 8.3 million lbs. from the previous month and 28.7 million lbs. (11.1%) less than May 2024. That was the smallest May beef shipments since 2020. Through the first five months of the year, beef shipments totaled 1.179 billion lbs., down 71.4 million lbs. (5.7%) from the same period last year. Of the top five destinations for U.S. beef, export increased only to South Korea.
U.S. pork exports totaled 564.6 million lbs. in May, down 18.3 million lbs. from the previous month and 21.5 million lbs. (3.7%) less than last year. That was the smallest monthly pork shipments since September 2024. Through the first five months of this year, pork exports totaled 2.931 billion lbs., down 114.0 million lbs. (3.7%) from the same period last year. Of the top six export destinations for U.S. pork, shipments increase only to Colombia.