Livestock producers: Extend feed coverage... We advise livestock producers to cover through September for corn and soymeal needs in the cash market. Corn futures fell under heavy selling the past few weeks despite firm fundamental support and deteriorating crop conditions. Meal futures are well off the July highs and are entering value territory despite persistent robust demand, evidenced in this week’s crush report. You were previously hand to mouth on feed coverage but now have coverage in cash through the end of September.
Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid on Wednesday said agricultural lenders in his district are describing an increasingly “complex and uncertain” environment for producers characterized by punishing margins alongside resilient land values and continued productivity gains.
“Some borrowers may be considering selling their farm or even filing for bankruptcy because of ongoing economic pressure,” Schmid said in prepared remarks at the regional Fed bank’s Agricultural Economic Summit in Omaha. “At the same time, the market for farm real estate appears nearly as strong as ever and productivity gains in the industry continue to lead to expanded production of food and agricultural products.”
The Kansas City Fed serves as the Federal Reserve System’s primary hub for intelligence on the ag economy. That contrast echoes another observation Schmid said he hears regularly throughout the Kansas City Fed District, which is that some parts of the ag economy are facing significant pressure while others thrive.
“Among producers of row crops, a combination of low prices and persistent cost pressures have continued to limit profit opportunities and raise questions about the longer term trajectory for farm operations and broader supply chains,” he said. “At the same time, however, a record-setting increase in cattle prices over the past few years, supported by resilient consumer demand for beef, has positioned operations in that industry for significant gains.”
Schmid said that these shifts in technology and labor hit at the heart of the Fed’s two main jobs: stable prices and maximum employment.
Market recap: Favorable weather and lower oil prices kept pressure on the grain markets.
- Corn fell 5 ½ cents to $4.60, its lowest close in three weeks.
- November soybeans lost 3 cents to $11.74 ¾, hitting a four-week low.
- September soft red winter wheat rose 3 ¾ cents to $6.42 ¼.
- December cotton rose 56 points to 83.02 cents.
- October live cattle rose $1.575 to $229.475, while September feeder cattle gained $2.225 to $348.375, with both hitting three-week highs.
- October lean-hog futures fell $1.325 lower for its lowest close in four weeks at $83.025.
Hormuz deal: Iran and Oman were putting finishing touches on a draft agreement Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that would give Tehran oversight of ships entering the Persian Gulf but wouldn’t let it levy tolls or service fees, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The parties have agreed on the main points of the draft, which would set up an inbound lane near Iran and an outbound lane near Oman, and have shared it with the U.S., countries in the region and Iran’s top leaders, who still needed to sign off, they said.
As anyone who’s paid any attention knows, diplomatic efforts to open the strait have been hailed before, only to fall apart. Any deal could be undermined by hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Journal noted. Oil futures have fallen hard this week on prospects for an agreement, with Nymex WTI crude futures trading near $75.16 a barrel.
Diesel pinch: The cost of diesel during President Donald Trump’s second term has surpassed the average price seen during Joseph Biden’s presidency, the Financial Times reported, underlining how surging inflation as a result of the Iran war is becoming a growing liability for the White House ahead of this fall’s midterm elections.
The diesel price since Trump returned to office in January 2025 has averaged $4.09, according to FT calculations based on Energy Information Administration data, compared with $4.08 during Biden’s term, when diesel surged due to the energy shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Diesel prices have risen sharply this summer due to curtailed flows of Middle Eastern crude that are ideal for producing middle distillates. Tight stocks and seasonal demand have also played a role, along with a Russian ban on diesel exports due to Ukrainian attacks on the country’ s refining industry.
Black Sea shipping costs surge: Escalating attacks on vessels and port infrastructure in the Black Sea are curtailing trade flows and driving up shipping costs, Reuters reported. According to Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry, July saw 35 attacks on vessels in port, 22 at sea, and 67 strikes on port facilities—compared to just 14 vessel attacks in all of 2025. Russia has also intensified strikes around Odesa, which handles over 90% of Ukraine’s ag exports. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi noted alternative routes will not reach full capacity until late August and will handle only about half of normal Black Sea volumes.
Meanwhile, Russian shipping group FESCO suspended new Black Sea orders after a drone hit a vessel. Disruptions extend to major Russian grain and oil hubs like Taman, Novorossiysk, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, impacting Kazakh crude exports, the report said. It noted that rising security risks have triggered steep cost increases. Average daily Black Sea oil tanker costs have jumped past $300,000, up from over $200,000 a week ago. War insurance premiums for port calls doubled to as much as 2% of ship value over two weeks, adding hundreds of thousands of dollars per voyage.
Hedge funds targeted by cyberattackers: Hackers launched a wave of attacks on Wall Street hedge funds in recent days, targeting information systems, Bloomberg reported. Point72 Asset Management told investors on Wednesday it had been attacked, but that initial indications were that no client information had been stolen. Attempts were also made to infiltrate information systems at other major hedge funds, including Millenium Management, Two Sigma Investments and Citadel as well as several private equity firms, the report said.
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