Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
China’s central bank has moved to slow the renminbi’s advance in reaction to a rapid appreciation that is testing Beijing’s tolerance for a stronger currency that could threaten its export-oriented economy, the Financial Times reported.
The People’s Bank of China on Friday said it would scrap a reserve requirement of 20 percent for forward contracts selling the renminbi, making it cheaper for traders to bet on a weakening Chinese currency.
The renminbi has rallied nearly 2% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, making it one of Asia’s strongest-performing currencies.
- A combination of a strong yuan, given China’s role as the world’s top ag importer, and continued strength in Brazil’s real, the biggest competitor to the U.S., contributes to a positive backdrop for U.S. agricultural commodities.
Favorable February: February was kind to agricultural commodities overall, living up to its seasonal history as a favorable month for the grain markets.
It’s soybean oil that’s stealing the show so far in 2026, however. Soybean oil futures advanced 14.6% in February, second only to silver futures, which were up over 19%, among 49 markets tracked by Finviz.
- Year-to-date, nearby soybean oil futures have rallied more than 26%, trailing only heating oil (up 51.4%), natural gas (up 45.7%), and silver (up 32.4%) on a most-active basis.
Bean oil has been boosted by optimism over renewable fuel standards. The big news this past week was a Reuters report that the Trump administration has settled on a plan that would require big oil refineries to make up for at least half of the biofuel blending volumes obligations waived in recent years under the Small Refinery Exemption program.
On Feb. 19, USDA, in its Grain and Oilseeds Outlook, projected the use of soybean oil for biofuel in the 2026/27 marketing year would rise to 17.3 billion pounds, up 2.5 billion from the prior marketing year. It’s important to note, however, that if final Renewable Volume Obligations – the annual, mandatory, EPA-set volume requirements for the amount of renewable fuels that refiners, importers and other parties must blend into the U.S. transportation fuel supply – diverge from a June 2025 proposal, USDA will adjust its forecast in subsequent supply/demand reports.
February saw SRW wheat rally 9%. Friday saw a 17-cent gain that propelled May SRW to its highest close in seven months, while May HRW wheat rose 18 1/4 cents. Expanding drought in the Plains along with concerns around the Black Sea have provided a lift.
Corn rose 2.5% in February, returning to the trading range that had prevailed ahead of a bearish Jan. 12 USDA Crop Production report.
On the losing side of the market ledger in February, natural gas futures fell by over a third after a January deep freeze sent them up by over 100%. Cocoa plunged nearly 32%, while bitcoin suffered a 22% drop.
Meanwhile, silver, gold, platinum and crude all saw winning months after a winning, but volatile, January that had served to reinforce faith in the longer-term case for hard assets.
Brazil’s soybean traffic jam: Reuters reports that truck drivers in Brazil are facing unusually long delays to deliver soybeans at the Miritituba port terminal in the Amazon rainforest, as a record harvest of approximately 180 million metric tons overwhelms logistics at one of the world’s key export hubs for the crop.
The backlog for moving soybeans from the world’s largest producer and exporter highlights ongoing logistical hurdles in Brazil’s agricultural supply chain, the report said, noting much of the soybean harvest is destined for China.
Miritituba is a critical transshipment point, handling around 12 million metric tons of grains annually, including soy and corn, the report said. Cargill, Bunge and Brazil’s Amaggi operate river terminals where crops are loaded onto barges for downstream transport to larger facilities capable of filling ocean-going vessels.
Stock-market jitters: For the month, Nasdaq dropped 3.4%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.9%, both losses the sharpest since March 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow held onto a 0.2% gain, its 10th straight winning month.
Rising worries over trouble in the private credit markets weighed on banks Friday, while February saw a turnabout in the AI narrative from unstoppable growth engine to unstoppable destroyer of jobs and disrupter of industries. A report earlier this week by Citrini Research, imagining that AI had laid waste to the white-collar workforce, spiked the unemployment rate into double digits and sparked a deep bear market in stocks, seemed to fan those dystopian fears.
Needless to say, the doom-laden scenario is getting some pushback. Here’s Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip, who argues that the AI revolution is likely to follow the same pattern as other disruptive technologies when it comes to the workforce:
Don’t miss these Friday must-reads: