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Geopolitical jitters were back on the market’s radar Monday, with China sending what it called a “stern warning” against outside interference as it launched major military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan.
A U.S.-China trade truce, reached by President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October, has seen Beijing resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the country seen on track to hit a target of 12 million metric tons by the end of February with the promise, according to U.S. officials, of 25 million MT in purchases over the next three calendar years. The truce, however, has long been seen as fragile, meaning traders will pay close attention to flare-ups over Taiwan or other issues.
The drills follow the Trump administration’s approval earlier this month of one of the largest packages of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, valued at over $11 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. In response, Beijing on Friday imposed sanctions targeting 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives.
Tensions around Taiwan rose in November after new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that a Chinese naval blockade or other action against Taiwan could be grounds for a Japanese military response. Beijing claims Taiwan is Chinese territory and must eventually be reunified with the mainland. The U.S. has supplied arms to Taiwan but has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” around how it would respond if China attacked the island.
Days numbered for cheap Brazil beef?...Brazil is a beef-exporting juggernaut, but the country’s ability to tame global prices may soon be tested, Bloomberg reports, noting that the country is about to enter a period of shrinking supplies.
The report noted that a surge in Brazil’s beef production has helped fuel surging exports over the past two years. It came as big herds drove down cattle prices relative to elsewhere, encouraging ranchers to send more animals to slaughter. At the same time, the U.S. and other countries struggled with high food costs and sought sources of cheaper beef. The U.S. imposed hefty tariffs on Brazilian imports earlier this year, but lifted them this fall. The tariffs were seen as a factor in helping U.S. cattle and beef prices soar to records, while the removal of the tariffs added momentum to a pullback from all-time highs for cattle futures.
But the Trump administration’s hopes that imports will help hold down U.S. beef prices come as the cycle is turning, Bloomberg noted, with prices for calves climbing in Brazil as producers begin holding back heifers to rebuild herds. That reduces the number of animals sent to slaughter and marks the start of a tightening supply cycle. Other countries are also in the process of rebuilding herds, while cattle supplies are expected to remain tight in the U.S. for at least another year amid a lack of signs that heifer retention has yet got under way. “Next year will be crucial because all the major countries in the cattle market will be in a scenario fo herd recovery,” Raphael Galo, head of agribusiness at A7 Capital, told Bloomberg.
Soy traders preparing to abandon Amazon rainforest pact…Some of the world’s largest soybean traders are preparing to abandon an agreement to limit deforestation of the Amazon rainforest to preserve tax benefits in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top farm state, according to a report from Reuters. Citing a source speaking on the condition of anonymity, Reuters reported that the companies planning to exit from the so-called Amazon Soy Moratorium are looking to shield themselves from a new state law that, beginning in January, would strip tax incentives from companies taking part in the program. Mato Grosso grew around 51 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025. The moratorium is considered a key factor in slowing deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon over the past two decades because it bars signatories from buying soybeans from farmers who plant on land deforested after July 2008, Reuters noted, with researchers estimating that an area of rainforest the size of Ireland would have been lost to soybean farms in Brazil without the moratorium and related conservation efforts. Critics of the moratorium say it restricts the market and hurts farmers.
Hog wild in Mississippi…Mississippi suffers around $60 million to $80 million in damage every year from wild hogs, including eating crops and damaging property, according to Mississippi Today, which noted the state was the first to launch a statewide hog-control program in 2020. The program provides education and traps to landowners, operating with a budget of $183,000 a year that goes mostly to staff salaries and the maintenance of smart traps and cameras.
The report noted that trapping is one of the most common methods for dealing with wild hogs and is preferred since it takes less time and effort than other methods. A new study from Mississippi State University took a close look at trapping. It found the average landowner in the study had an estimated $20,000 in hog damages per year, and showed that reducing a local pig population can lead to less damage and between $300 and $4,000 in savings per pig the next year for landowners.