USDA Crop Progress as of Sept. 28…USDA rated the corn crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor,” unchanged from last week. Harvest was estimated to have advanced seven percentage points from last week to 18%, one point behind the five-year average.
The soybean crop improved a point from last week to 62% “good” to “excellent,” while the “poor” to “very poor” rating eased a point to 11%. Soybean harvest was estimated to be 19% complete, up 10 percentage points from last week, but behind the five-year average of 20%.
USDA rated the cotton crop as 47% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating declined a point to 17%. Harvest was estimated to be 16% complete, up four percentage points on the week and in line with the five-year average.
The winter wheat crop was estimated to 34% planted as of September 28, up 14 points on the week but still behind the five-year average of 36%. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
U.S. economy set to become murkier in the event of a gov. shutdown...a shutdown of the federal government could deprive policymakers of critical data to assess the state of the U.S. economy, as many federal operations will pause and nonessential employees will be furloughed or fired, notes Bloomberg.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics would cease operations and likely delay the payroll report in the event of a shutdown, with the employment report and consumer price index (CPI), being the first major releases to be affected.
A shutdown will elevate uncertainty for companies and business leaders and also make it increasingly difficult to justify another interest rate cut without having the latest government numbers.
Of note: A shutdown will halt the data collection for the upcoming October WASDE and Production Reports, which supplies the marketplace with crucial crop data.
Taiwan signs letters of intent with Indiana to purchase U.S. corn and soybeans…the Indiana State Department of Agriculture reported today that Taiwan signed two letters of intent with the Indiana Corn Marketing Council and the Indiana Soybean Alliance to purchase nearly $6.4 billion of U.S. corn and soybeans over the next four years.
As part of the Taiwan Agricultural Trade Goodwill Mission, the Letter of Intent between the Indiana Corn Marketing Council and the Taiwan Feed Industry Association states that Taiwan will purchase nearly $2.12 billion of U.S. corn and corn products from 2026-2029. The Letter of Intent between the Indiana Soybean Alliance and Taiwan Vegetable Oil Manufacturers Association states that Taiwan will purchase between $3.44 billion and $4.2 billion of U.S. soybeans from 2026-2029.
“Selling our corn and soybeans around the world keeps Indiana’s farm economy strong,” Lieutenant Governor Beckwith, Indian’s Secretary of Agriculture said. “These agreements mean more markets for the crops our farmers work hard to grow, and they show that other countries count Indiana to deliver quality corn and soybeans year after year.
Tim Guach, president of the Indiana Corn Marketing Council and Denise Scarbrough, chair of the Indiana soybean Alliance, signed letters of intent on behalf of their respective programs.
The ceremony was witnessed by Go. Mike Braun, Lt. Gov Micah Beckwith and the Indiana State Department of Agriculture Director Don Lamb, who served as official signatories for Indiana.
Australian beef has replaced U.S. supply in China…U.S. shipments to China, worth around $120 million a month, collapsed after Beijing in March allowed permits to expire at hundreds of American meat facilities amid a tit-for-tat trade war.
However, U.S. beef exports have generally declined in recent years as drought shrank the country’s cattle herd, reducing production and pushing prices to record highs, but the drop in trade with China has been farm more sudden and extreme.
The value of U.S. beef sent to China tumbled to $8.1 million in July and $9.5 million August, according to Chinese trade data, compared to $118 million and $125 million in the same months a year earlier.
Brazil, China’s largest beef supplier, has also stepped up exports in recent months, but Australia has benefited most as its grain-fed beef is the closest equivalent to U.S. products.
Reuters quoted U.S. Meat Export Federation spokesperson Joe Schuele, who stated, “The beef impasse with China has very little to do with beef. It’s entangled in other issues between the U.S. and China. If they can make progress on those issues, we see more hope for getting this resolved.” Schuele also noted that we still need to export the cuts that do not attract a lot of attention in the domestic market, “we’re losing out on the upward pressure of the Chinese bids.”
However, even with a trade agreement, Matt Dalgleigh, a meat and livestock analyst at Australian consultants indicated that even with a trade agreement, the U.S. would struggle to take back market share for several years.
Mexico meat sector decries new livestock movement rules…Mexico’s meat industry is pushing back against new government regulations on livestock movement was tensions with the U.S. heat up over an outbreak of the flesh-eating New World screwworm.
A document dated September 19 from Mexico’s agriculture ministry and sanitation agency Senasica, seen by Reuters and confirmed by a Senasica spokesperson, said the anti-parasite drug Ivermectin must be given 72 hours in advance of the movement of cattle under supervision of staff from the International Regional Organization for Animal and Plant Health. A Mexican industry official, who asked to remain unidentified, stated the ivermectin requirement would substantially delay livestock movement.
the Mexican meat chamber AMEG released a statement on Friday, which noted that restricting movement of livestock from south to north of the country “threatens the viability of a sector that generated $192 billion in 2024.”
“Recent measures…jeopardize the supply chain of the meat production sector,” AMEG stated without specifying specific measures. It said the only proven method to eradicate the screwworm, was the release of sterile flies to reduce the mating population in the wild.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week that the country was working on new measures that would soon be announced but said restricting livestock movement from south to the north was not simple.
NWS has moved northward from Central America and while it has not yet reached the U.S. border, it poses a multibillion-dollar risk to the country’s beef industry.