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Surge expected in global biofuel output: Global biofuel output is set to surge nearly 70% by 2030 from 2025 levels, according to a Chatham House and Forest Stewardship Council study reported by Reuters. The jump follows a wave of higher blending mandates in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States and the European Union after the Iran war drove fossil-fuel prices higher.
Most of that extra fuel would still come from food and feed crops such as corn and sugarcane. If proposed mandates are fully implemented, land used for biofuel feedstocks could more than double from 2023 levels, adding about 36 million hectares — an area the size of Germany.
The authors warn that demand may rise faster than certification, land-use planning and enforcement. That raises risks of food-price spikes, deforestation and water stress. Crude oil has risen nearly 40% since the war began in late February; sugar and corn are up about 20%. Waste-based “advanced” biofuels would ease the land pressure, but first-generation crop fuels are what policy is scaling now.
Trump/Xi – what to expect: Xi Jinping arrives in Washington Wednesday for a one-day summit with Trump on Thursday — his first U.S. visit in three years. The meeting is aimed at steadying a fragile relationship, not striking a grand bargain. Trade, AI, critical minerals, the Iran war and Taiwan sit at the center of the agenda.
Bloomberg reports the immediate test is whether the two sides extend last October’s tariff-and-minerals truce, due to lapse in early November, and whether they advance a narrower deal to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of goods each way. Washington wants China to make good on farm and aircraft purchases and to keep rare-earth shipments flowing. Beijing wants fewer U.S. tariffs and looser controls on advanced chips.
Artificial intelligence is newly near the top of the list. Officials have floated a dialogue on incidents and “guardrails” so leading models do not reach non-state actors. That sits uneasily next to U.S. export limits, a Pentagon blacklist of Chinese firms, and an all-out race for AI dominance. Tech CEOs are expected around the visit.
On Iran, the White House wants Xi to lean on Tehran and help keep the Strait of Hormuz open. On Taiwan, Beijing still treats the issue as central; Trump has described a pending U.S. arms package as a negotiating chip. Neither file is likely to be settled in a day.
The realistic outcome is an extension of the trade truce, some farm-related announcements, and a talking shop on AI — with the harder disputes managed rather than resolved.
Diesel export ban? Republican lawmakers are lining up behind a ban on U.S. diesel exports as pump prices set records less than two months before the midterms, Bloomberg reports. Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, trailing Democrat Mary Peltola and among the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents, joined the call Tuesday.
The push is coming from farm and swing-state Republicans who say $6-plus diesel is crushing growers and truckers. Iowa’s Chuck Grassley has compared an export embargo to 1970s food-export limits. Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson, also running for Senate, wants exports paused and the gas tax suspended. Tennessee’s Tim Burchett has a bill; South Dakota’s John Thune says he is open to looking at it. Even Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, whose state is a refining and export hub, has floated a 90-day ban.
President Trump said Tuesday he has already told aides, “let’s not send out the diesel.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration is studying whether a full or partial ban is feasible given refining capacity. Oil and refining lobbies warn it would backfire: refiners would cut runs, gasoline could rise, allies would pay more, and the U.S. would look like an unreliable supplier. Analysts say any relief at home would likely be short-lived while global distillate stays tight through 2027.
Saudi Arabia patches up East-West pipeline: the Red Sea bypass that lets Riyadh export crude without using the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The line was shut after drone strikes earlier this month damaged infrastructure along the route, notes Bloomberg.
The kingdom is building pressure on the pipe and aiming for a meaningful restart of flows by Saturday, with exports from Yanbu targeted later this week. Traders already report tankers gathering at the Red Sea port. Aramco has been working around a damaged pumping station; a return to full capacity — the route had been moving about 4 million barrels a day, or roughly 4% of global supply — could take about six weeks. Aramco and the oil ministry did not comment.
The outage tightened an already short market and helped push Brent above $130 at one point. News of the restart added to a selloff that took crude back below $100. A restart would ease some of the squeeze on crude and on Red Sea liftings, but product markets — especially diesel — remain tight until Gulf and Russian refined-fuel flows recover more fully.
Traders bet on a Brent decline: Oil traders piled into bets on a Brent decline at a record pace Tuesday, as supply-scare premiums faded. Bloomberg said volume in Brent put options hit about 764,000 contracts, the most on ICE record. A lot of that flow was in tight put spreads, often used to hedge over-the-counter binary bets that prices will fall.
The backdrop is a fifth day of weaker crude — the longest losing streak in more than a year — with Brent back under $100 after a blistering rally. Traders pointed to Saudi efforts to restart the East-West pipeline after drone damage, more Gulf loadings toward Hormuz, and hints of diplomacy that could reopen the strait. President Trump said a U.S. team met Iranians in New York; Iran has floated conditions for easing the waterway.
The options surge is a repositioning after the spike, not proof the war premium is gone. Diesel and other products remain tight even as crude slips. If Hormuz and Saudi flows normalize, banks have sketched a path back toward the $80s. If talks fail or shipping is hit again, the puts expire worthless and the rally can reappear fast.
Canada overhaul: Canada is overhauling how it builds ports, corridors and other transport links so more trade can move to Europe and Asia, Transport Minister Steven MacKinnon told Bloomberg, as Ottawa tries to loosen its dependence on the U.S. market.
The vehicle is Bill C-39, the Building Canada Strong Act, tabled Monday by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. Federal project reviews would be capped at one year, with permits run in parallel rather than in sequence. A new transportation projects office would shepherd priority schemes. Ottawa would designate strategic trade corridors, modernize port governance, push digital trade paperwork and cut construction red tape. The same bill also tightens rules around strikes in federally regulated sectors such as ports and railways.
The timing is the trade war with Washington. Canada wants stronger Atlantic and Pacific gateways, more container capacity (including Vancouver’s Roberts Bank Terminal 2), energy and mineral corridors aimed at the EU and Indo-Pacific, and deals already in train with India, ASEAN and the Philippines. Officials say non-U.S. exports rose sharply last year; the stated goal is to keep that shift going. The test is whether ports and pipelines actually get built before the next shock to U.S.–Canada trade.
Copper on a roll: Copper extended a six-day rally toward record highs as China’s physical market tightened, Bloomberg reported. It is the metal’s longest winning streak in four months.
LME three-month copper was last around $14,745 a ton, up about 0.6%, and close to the early-September peak near $14,875. Comex December futures traded near $6.84–$6.87 a pound, just shy of the Sept. 9 record settlement of $6.8885.
The squeeze is in China. Shanghai Metals Market said cathode stocks in Shanghai fell to 43,900 tons, the lowest since 2023. Imports that have arrived have gone straight to fabricators instead of warehouses. Downstream plants are also restocking ahead of Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. The Yangshan import premium recently hit a nearly four-year high. SHFE warehouse stocks have dropped about 70% since early June.
London is tight too: available LME stocks have fallen and the cash market has flipped into backwardation, a sign buyers want metal now. Mine disruptions and weaker grades are adding to the supply story even as demand from grids, data centers and defense stays firm. U.S. tariff talk on refined copper remains an overhang but has not stopped the physical bid.
Today’ closes:
December corn fell 6 1/4 cents to $5.36 ¾
November soybeans fell 2 1/2 cents to $13.25 ½
December soybean meal rose $2.30 to $370.70
December soybean oil fell 93 points to 67.92 cents
December SRW fell 9 1/2 cents to $7.17 ¼
December HRW fell 13 1/4 cents to $7.81 ¼
December HRS fell a dime to $7.36 1/4.
December cotton futures fell 55 points to 82.87 cents
October live cattle fell $2.175 to $218.775
November feeder cattle lost $2.90 to $323.20
October lean hog futures rose $1.125 to $79.275