Wheat producers: Advance 2026, initiate 2027 crop sales... Wheat futures have surged higher amid constrained exports out of the Black Sea. Wheat is trading at multi-year highs, providing a good selling and hedging opportunity. We advise selling 30% of 2026 production to get to 60% sold in the cash market. We also advise initiating 2027 crop sales, selling 10% of anticipated production. Price action remains predicated on rhetoric around the Black Sea and the rally deserves rewarding, despite persistent bullish world fundamentals. Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
The Trump administration is considering a plan that would add 500 million gallons to 2027 biofuel blending quotas in an effort to offset the hit to demand that would come from higher-than-expected exemptions to quotas that are expected to be announced soon by the Environmental Protection Agency, reports Jarrett Renshaw of Reuters
Farm and biofuel groups have been lobbying furiously to head off a sharp increase in exemptions beyond the roughly 900 million gallons previously penciled in by EPA. News reports have put total exemptions as high as 1.8 billion gallons – a level that biofuel advocates say would threaten to gut what had been expected to be a major ramp-up in demand after EPA earlier set blending requirements. Renshaw, citing people familiar with the matter, said the supplemental quotas would equal roughly 70% of the gallons that exceed EPA’s initial estimates – roughly equal to the percentage EPA had committed to reallocation to larger refiners in its initial proposal.
“Reducing blending volumes in the RFS program through the use of SREs will destroy the biofuel demand that is now working to restore the rural economy and reduce fuel costs for drivers,” companies and groups wrote to President Trump on Thursday, Agri-Pulse reported. Signers included the Clean Fuels Alliance America; the American Soybean Association; crop handling giant Bunge Global; POET, the world’s biggest corn ethanol producer; the National Oilseed Processors Association; and Darling Ingredients, co-owner of North America’s largest producer of renewable diesel.
Soybean oil futures bounced higher in Thursday’s session amid market chatter the final exemptions would likely be closer to around 1.2 billion gallons.
‘Nothing comparable’ in history of grain market: Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon further cut its estimate of Russian wheat exports in August by 300,000 metric tons to 1.9 million MT. That compares with 4.5 MMT a year ago and an average of 5.0 MMT. More than 95% of Russia’s combined Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain export capacity is currently shut down,the firm noted, alongside damage to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
- “Nothing comparable has happened in the history of the modern grain market: neither in 2010, when Russia imposed its grain export ban, nor in the first half of 2022, after the war began,” wrote SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov on X. “Until recently, the market had been catastrophically underpricing this story.”
Market recap: Wheat futures continued to push higher Thursday, building on a limit-higher close for soft red winter wheat the previous session, as an escalation of Russia-Ukraine fighting continues to choke off exports from the world’s top wheat-exporting region.
- December soft red winter wheat rose 12 ½ cents to $7.60 3/4
- December hard red winter wheat gained 13 ¼ cents to $8.22
- December spring wheat futures rose 9 ¾ cents to $7.57 3/4
- December corn fell 3 cents to $5.33 ½
- November soybeans rose 2 cents to $12.68
- December soybean meal rose $1.60 to $340.90
- December soybean oil gained 77 points to 68.51 cents.
- December cotton futures surged 327 points to end at 92.41 cents.
- October live cattle rose $2.15 to $212.925, near mid-range. November feeder cattle rose $3.975 to $311.475, also near mid-range.
- October lean hog futures fell $0.275 to $80.625.
China crop woes: High temperatures and excessive rain have battered China’s key corn, soybean and cotton-growing regions since mid-July, Reuters reported. The weather has threatened crop quality and yield losses, potentially boosting imports of feed grains and cotton, including from the U.S. The report, citing traders and analysts, noted that if weather damage reduces output or quality, Beijing could boost imports of corn, sorghum or cotton.
‘Lake America’: President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order to change the name of Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” as the trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada intensifies. The order directs the Interior Department to update the Geographic Names Information System to reflect the name change, effective immediately, the Wall Street Journal reported, noting the name change is likely to harden public sentiment against the Trump administration in Canada.
China truce extension: An extension of the U.S.-China trade truce reached last fall in South Korea is seen as “almost certain” when Chinese leader Xi Jinping visits the U.S. on Sept. 24 to meet with President Trump, the South China Morning Post reported. Chinese and U.S. officials are discussing whether business leaders will join Xi’s delegation after Trump traveled to Beijing in May with several U.S. CEOs, including the heads of Tesla, Apple, Nvidia and Boeing.