Evening Report | Aug. 23, 2021

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Corn ratings drop a bit more than expected… USDA now rates 60% of the U.S. corn crop “good” to “excellent,” a two-point slide from the week prior and a point lower than analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated, on average. But the ratings likely did not account for any benefit stemming from the latest rains in the western Corn Belt.

As of Aug. 22, 85% of the crop was in dough (81% for the five-year average), 41% was dented (38% average) and 4% of the crop was mature (4% average). The crop was planted in a timely manner across much of the Midwest and some crops in the western Corn Belt have been pushed by heat and dryness.

Soybean ratings edge lower, as expected… USDA lowered the amount of soybeans it rates “good” or “excellent” (G/E) a percentage point to 56%, as expected. Last year at this time, 69% of the crop fell in the top two categories. The department now rates 16% of the crop “poor” or “very poor,” up a percentage point from last week.

USDA reports 88% of the soybean crop is setting pods, just a point ahead of the average. And 3% of the crop is dropping leaves — steady with the average for this point in the season.

Farmers continue to make quick work of harvesting the spring wheat crop… Spring wheat harvest continues to advance more rapidly than analysts anticipate, with 77% of the crop cut as of Aug. 22, a 19-point gain from the week prior and three points more advanced than the market anticipated. The 2016 through 2020 average is for 55% of the crop to be harvested at this point in the season.

Cotton condition ratings continue to impress… USDA now rates 71% of the U.S. cotton crop G/E, a four-point jump from the week prior. Last year at this time, just 46% of the crop received top marks. A broad area of top-producing Texas received two to 10 inches of rainfall over the past week, according to the Texas crop progress and condition update.

Today’s update shows 79% of the crop is setting bolls and 14% has bolls open. Crop development lags the norm, with bolls opening lagging the five-year average by five points.

Russian harvest data confirms smaller crop prospects… Russia’s ag ministry has resumed releasing harvest updates after pausing publication for the data on Aug. 11 as the ministry refined the reporting format used by various growing regions. Today’s update shows the country has harvested 62.2 MMT of wheat before drying and cleaning. That compares to 67.4 MMT harvested last year at this time. The average yield of the crop is also down 12.6% from year-ago at 3.13 MT per hectares. This year’s crop was clipped by dry weather.

Also Russian President Vladimir Putin today said the country’s grain crop will likely total around 127 MMT this year, which would be a retreat from 2020 but still sufficient for domestic demand and export needs.

AgRural reports early 2021-22 corn planting is underway… Brazilian producers have planted 4.1% of their 2021-22 full-season corn crop, reports the consultancy AgRural. Meanwhile, harvest of the country’s 2020-21 safrinha corn crop is still wrapping up. AgRural reports 79% of the crop has been picked in Brazil’s center-south region.

EU’s soft wheat crop expected to yield better than average… The European Union’s crop monitoring system MARS now forecasts the country’s soft wheat crop will yield an average of 5.98 MT per hectare, which is a slight retreat from its 6.05 MT per hectare forecast in July. But that would still top the five-year average yield by 5.0%.

Negligible month-to-month change in frozen stocks of beef and pork… There were 401.26 million lbs. of beef in the nation’s freezers at the end of July, just a 256,000-MT decline from the end of June versus the five-year average increase of 23.6 million lbs. for the month. Beef stocks were down 8.8% from year-ago. The data is further proof of impressive beef demand.

Pork stocks totaled 443.13 million lbs. at the end of July, a 1.21-million-lb. increase from the month prior. Pork stocks typically don’t change too much during July, with the five-year average being a 1.8- million-lb. drawdown during the month. Pork stocks were down 3.8% from year-ago levels.

Stocks of frozen poultry totaled 1.173 billion lbs. at the end of July, a 2.3% increase from June but a 16.6% decline from year-ago. Chicken breast stocks were down notably from month and last year’s record level.

USDA enrolls nearly 3 million acres in CRP… USDA announced it has accepted 2.8 million acres in offers from ag producers and private landowners for enrollment into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in 2021. The department reports its has accepted nearly 1.9 million acres in offers via the General CRP signup, with another 897,000 acres enrolled via continuous signup. Continuous signup remains open. USDA expects to enroll more acres into CRP than the 3 million acres that are expiring.

Check out the latest Signal to Noise podcast… AgriTalk Host Chip Flory and Washington Policy Analyst Jim Wiesemeyer discuss current D.C. policy issues and events. Listen here.