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USDA on Thursday said exporters sold a net 12,064 metric tons of U.S. beef to foreign buyers in late June, a 90% reduction from the initial – and quite outsize – figure it reported last week, stirring renewed scrutiny of the department’s data.
USDA on July 2 reported sales of 126,062 MT of beef in the previous week, up almost 500% from the previous week and drawing skepticism from traders. USDA blamed late reporting by a number of countries. This week, USDA said accumulated exports were adjusted down by 113,998 MT. Reuters noted the incident was the latest in a string of recent data snafus that have dented confidence in USDA data among traders, analysts and farmers. USDA was forced to significantly revise corn acres higher late last year, delayed a quarterly agricultural trade report and excluded findings that pointed to tariffs as a reason for a forecast rise in the agricultural trade deficit, the report noted.
USDA said on July 2 that multiple sales had been reported late and that it had confirmed the accuracy of data with an exporter, Reuters noted. On Thursday, the USDA said that the exports had been “reported in error”, but provided no further explanation.
Trump cuts off Spain trade: President Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered a halt to all U.S. trade with Spain due to the country’s failure to ramp up defense spending. USDA data shows U.S. agricultural exports to Spain have been steadily growing, rising to $2.49 billion in 2025, reflecting a 4.6% annualized growth rate. Corn was the top export to Spain at 3.56 million metric tons at a total value of $784.06 million. Soybeans were third, behind tree nuts, at 763,057 metric tons, worth $307.56 million. Spain has also emerged as an important destination for U.S. sorghum, noted Agata Kingsbury of Demetrica Analytics, in a blog post.
Spain’s growing livestock industry helps explain its rising demand for U.S. corn, sorghum, soybean and meal, she observed, while purchases of a range of other U.S. agricultural goods has been on the rise.
- “In an era of shifting global trade patterns, the objective should not be simply to open new markets,” she wrote. “Preserving and strengthening relationships with reliable existing customers may be just as important. Sometimes the most valuable trading partners are not the largest ones. Sometimes they are the ones quietly buying more every year.”
A troublesome paragraph: The Wall Street Journal zeroes in on Paragraph 5 of the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding that had, until recently, halted the shooting war in the Middle East. While the MOU was supposed to open the Strait of Hormuz, it has instead set off a test of wills that has resulted in renewed violence and again roiled global energy and financial markets.
The paragraph says that the Islamic Republic of Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa…”
- “Trump administration officials saw that clause as unlocking the strait, the main accomplishment of the president’s deal,” the Journal wrote. “Iranian hard-liners, however, have used it to push a maximalist interpretation that gives the Islamic Republic exclusive control over the waterway as a key source of leverage…The language of the deal has left the two sides fighting over that point rather than making progress on a final agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program.”
The reverse population bomb: Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie on Tuesday published a report warning that an accelerated decline in fertility rates poses a long-term risk to demand for energy and other commodities. The global fertility rate dropped to 2.2 births per woman in 2025, nearing the 2.1 replacement ratio required to keep the population stable.
- “Demographics dictate destiny,” said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, in a news release. “The fertility rate has fallen from 2.6 births per woman in 2007 to 2.2 today, and China’s population is already 9.6 million below the UN’s 2024 forecast. Shrinking workforces mean slower GDP growth, with direct consequences for energy demand. This is not a tail risk. It belongs in the core scenario of every long-range model the industry relies on.”
Wood Mackenzie forecasts global primary energy consumption will increase by 8% from current levels, peaking at 717 exajoules (EJ) in 2035 before declining to 672 EJ by 2060. Electricity consumption is projected to double to 71 petawatt-hours over the same period.
Serbian ASF outbreak: Serbian authorities started culling 11,000 pigs at a farm in the west of the country following an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), Reuters reported, citing the Tanjug news agency. The local news report, which cited Agriculture Minister Dragan Glamocic, said the cull at the farm in the village of Hrtkovci is expected to take several days. Tanjug quoted Glamocic as saying the state would compensate the farm’s owners.
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