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Major agricultural firms are warning of a rocky path into 2027 thanks to soaring diesel prices, wars in the Middle East and Europe and persistent trade frictions that continue to strain global supply chains, Bloomberg reported.
Both grain merchant Bunge Global SA and farm-equipment maker AGCO Corp. warned of a complex outlook despite both delivering third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, the report noted. AGCO lowered its full-year sales outlook, with CEO Eric Hansotia describing a decade low in global equipment demand alongside rising input costs and higher interest rates. “Global demand is now at its weakest level in more than a decade,” Chief Executive Officer Eric Hansotia said on the company’s earnings call. “We continue to believe the industry is at the trough of this cycle, with some recovery coming in 2027.”
Bunge maintained its full-year guidance, but Chief Financial Officer John Neppl told analysts that the processing giant is “entering into next year with about as complicated an environment as we’ve seen in a long time.” Bunge said it expects slightly lower results in its soybean processing business on shrinking margins in the US, Brazil and Europe. It anticipates higher results in grain merchandising and milling on expectations of good grain harvests in Australia and Canada, even as supplies out of the Black Sea remain constrained.
Bunge shares fell 4.8% Thursday. Bunge stock had soared in the first half of the year, rising more than 45% at its June high. Shares are now up less than 8% year to date. AGCO shares rose 5.6% Thursday and are up 3.4% so far in 2026.
Market recap: Wheat futures benefited somewhat from a glimmer of hope on possible Chinese demand, while corn and soybeans continued to work lower despite a weaker dollar and solid weekly export sales as harvest pressure continues. Strong export sales also buoyed cotton and long-suffering lean-hog futures, while cattle saw another round of profit taking as cash trade weakened.
- December corn finished ¼ cent lower at $4.64 ¾.
- January soybeans fell 3 ¼ cents to $12.34 ¾.
- December soybean meal dropped $6.40 to $329.30
- December soybean oil leaked out a gain of 8 points to 65.64.
- December SRW rose 4 ¾ cents to close at $6.03 ¾.
- December HRW gained 2 ¼ to finish at $6.45 ¼.
- December spring wheat futures were 4 ¾ cents higher at $6.24 ½.
- December cotton futures rose 9 points to 78.15 cents.
- December live cattle fell $1.025 to $226.30, hitting a two-week low early on. November feeder cattle lost $0.275 to close at $346.475.
- December lean hog futures rose $1.225 to $59.825.
GDP jumps, inflation sticky… Economic data on Thursday morning showed inflation continues to run hot, with the Fed’s favored price gauge, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, accelerating in September to 3.1% year over year. The reading was expected but, combined with a stronger than expected third-quarter gross domestic product reading that showed the U.S. economy expanded at a 3.4% annualized pace, reinforces expectations for a December rate hike after policymakers stood pat yesterday. Strong consumer spending was an ingredient in growth, but came as households shrank the savings rate in response to higher prices.
- “The one red flag of all the numbers this morning was the -0.3% month on month contraction in real disposable personal incomes for September,” said economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research. It reflected the “combination of (i) soft wages, (ii) weak employment growth, and (iii) energy-induced price increases.”
Argentine crops off to good start… Moist soils and timely rainfall in southern, central, and eastern Argentina have allowed winter wheat as well as early season summer crops to develop favorably in recent weeks, World Weather Inc. said Thursday. Rain has slowed fieldwork at times, but adequate breaks between rounds of rain have allowed progress. The forecaster said there are still lingering pockets of dryness from northern San Luis and Cordoba to Santiago del Estero to central Chaco where rain Saturday into Tuesday will be timely for summer crops.
- “More sunshine than rain is expected during the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around poorly organized showers likely most days and one to two rounds of organized rain,” World Weather wrote. “Rain through the next 10 days will be greatest Saturday into Tuesday and the moisture will be important in the drier areas in western and north-central Argentina while the precipitation likely stalls fieldwork for multiple days elsewhere. Most of the drier areas will be left with significant improvements in conditions for summer crop development, but the soil is dry enough that follow-up rain will be needed soon to ensure the soil does not quickly dry out again.”
As of Oct. 22, corn planting was ahead of the pace of the last several years and was 35% planted compared to 31% at that time last year and 24% in 2024, World Weather said. Rice planting was well ahead of last year’s pace at 67% this year compared to 50% in 2025. Planting of sunseed was at 49% which was the same as last year. Cotton and soybean planting had just begun, as had the winter wheat harvest, the report said.
Costa seeks top House ag post… California Democrat Jim Costa threw his hat in the ring to become the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, Agri-Pulse reported. “My agenda is simple: keep farmers farming, keep families fed, and make this committee work for every member,” he said in a letter to Democratic colleagues. Costa will be competing with Rep. Shontel Brown, D-Ohio, currently the vice ranking member of the panel, who won the endorsement of Minnesota’s Angie Craig, the ranking Democrat, who is leaving Congress at the end of the current term. Costa lost a 2024 bid to become top Democrat to Craig.
Diesel supply picture improving?... Nearby New York diesel futures have pulled back around 9% from their Sept. 10 high, and one analyst sees encouraging signs that a supply crunch may be starting to ease. “Diesel looks especially weak as it looks like supply is going up with Russia not seeing any refinery attacks from Ukraine since October 15, China adding exports quotas, and South Korea easing diesel export curbs as their supply has balanced, " said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP, in a note. “Petrobras also reported record production in their quarterly report which just shows you that the supply side is adjusting.” That said, fears of a re-escalation of fighting between the U.S. and Iran after next week’s midterms is likely limiting downside, he wrote.
N.J. threatens to block Russian diesel… New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill told the Financial Times she was considering measures to block tankers carrying Russian diesel from offloading their cargoes in the state, which is the home of the nation’s largest petroleum distribution and import hub. “Trump’s diesel deal with Putin is corrupt and illegal, and I am evaluating options to stop it from arriving at a port in New Jersey,” she said. Three tankers are due to arrive at U.S. ports just days ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Rural bank CEOs grow more downbeat… The October Creighton University survey of rural bank CEOs in 10 agricultural and energy-dependent states saw the Rural Mainstreet Index sink to 42.5, marking its fifth month below growth neutral in the past six. High diesel and fertilizer prices driven by supply chain disruptions continue to suppress economic confidence, which sits at 27.5. Conversely, farmland values edged higher to 50.3 due to a positive long-term agricultural outlook, while farm equipment sales remained weak for the 38th consecutive month at 36.8.