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NOPA March soy crush lower than expected... Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 194.6 million bu. of soybeans during March, 3 million bu. less than analysts expected. The crush pace rose 16.7 million bu. (9.4%) from February but declined 1.9 million bu. (0.9%) from last year. NOPA data implies the full March crush of 206.0 million bushels.
NOPA soyoil stocks totaled 1.498 billion lbs., down 5.1 million lbs. from February – the first monthly decline in six months.
Japan eyes nontariff barrier reforms ahead of U.S. trade talks, including agriculture... With U.S. tariffs looming, Japan has begun reviewing longstanding nontariff trade barriers in a bid to gain leverage ahead of negotiations with the Trump administration. The move comes as President Donald Trump continues to criticize Japan for limiting market access to American goods, especially in the auto and agriculture sectors.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced Monday the government is conducting a comprehensive review of trade rules, including regulations that impact foreign carmakers and American farm exports. “We need to quickly and clearly state how Japan will deal with nontariff barriers,” Ishiba told lawmakers, pointing to automobile safety standards as a key area of focus.
Japan’s review is guided in part by the 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers released by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) on March 31, which devotes 11 pages to Japan. That report criticizes Japan’s regulatory framework as being overly favorable to domestic producers, particularly in electric vehicles and agricultural goods.
Japan is considering easing certification requirements for foreign cars, which currently face long wait times and strict collision testing based on Japanese-specific safety standards. One proposal would allow U.S. crash-test metrics to be accepted for rear-end damage assessments.
The USTR report also alleges Japan’s EV subsidies disproportionately benefit domestic manufacturers and that its unique fast-charging standard discourages imports of U.S.-made EVs. Negotiators are also discussing harmonizing key fob and charging technologies to reduce regulatory friction.
The U.S. also takes issue with Japan’s heavily controlled rice market and accuses the country of deploying opaque pricing and distribution systems that hinder American rice imports. Other complaints include:
· Pork: A tariff mechanism that penalizes lower-priced imports.
· Beef: Mandatory removal of certain cattle tissues not required in U.S. standards.
Japan is also floating alternative concessions, including LNG project cooperation in Alaska and increased U.S. defense purchases, as part of a broader strategy to balance economic and diplomatic interests.
Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Ryosei Akazawa will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday. Japanese officials hope their willingness to address regulatory concerns can soften Trump’s aggressive tariff posture. However, analysts are skeptical.
Brazil’s ethanol boom reshapes global corn market... Farmdoc daily reports that Brazil’s rapid expansion of corn-based ethanol production is transforming the country’s domestic corn market, sharply boosting internal consumption and potentially curbing future exports. Takeaways:
· Record corn use for ethanol: Brazil’s corn ethanol production has surged from 16 million bu. in 2015-16 to 722 million bu. in 2024-25 — 15% of national output. The country now has 25 operational corn ethanol plants with 15 more under construction.
· Domestic consumption soars: Total corn consumption has jumped 53% in the past decade to 3.5 billion bu., with 2.5 billion bu. going to animal protein and 925 million to food, seed and industrial uses – including ethanol.
· Export impacts: Corn exports are projected to fall 20% from their 2023 peak, partly due to China’s declining demand and increased output from the U.S., Argentina and Ukraine.
· Price surge: Domestic corn prices hit a 3-year high in March, topping 37 reais ($6.57) per bushel in Paranaguá.
· Policy & market shifts: Ethanol demand is rising with Brazil possibly raising its gasoline ethanol blend from 27% to 30%. Flex-fuel vehicles and new plants will likely sustain demand growth.
Global implications: Brazil’s booming ethanol sector, powered by second-crop corn (safrinha), is expected to tighten export availability, easing competitive pressure on U.S. corn in global markets and supporting international prices.
China’s sea cargo slows as Trump tariffs bite... China’s seaborne trade momentum is showing signs of strain following the imposition of sweeping U.S. tariffs. According to new data from China’s ministry of transport, the nation’s ports handled 244 MMT of cargo last week, marking a 10% drop from the previous week and a 4% year-over-year decline — the first weekly slowdown since the Lunar New Year.
This downturn could mark an inflection point in Chinese trade, Bloomberg notes, with volumes having peaked at the end of March, just ahead of President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” speech where sweeping new tariffs were unveiled. The impact is now materializing in official data, suggesting exporters may have rushed shipments before the duties took effect. Key stats:
· Sea cargo volume: 244 million tons (down 10% on a weekly basis and 4% annually)
· Container throughput: Also declined last week
· Air cargo flights: up 30%-plus for ninth straight week
Despite a weekend reprieve for some consumer goods, most Chinese exports still face a 145% tariff, and the U.S. plans to eliminate the “de minimis” small-package exemption in May — potentially hurting air cargo shipments next.
The data contrasts sharply with a relatively strong first quarter, when China’s overseas shipments rose nearly 6% in value. However, with retaliatory measures from Beijing and persistent tariff pressure from Washington, trade between the world’s top two economies appears headed for a prolonged downturn.
ECAP payments near $6 billion... Approved applications for payments under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) reached $5.85 billion as of April 13, with $2.25 billion going to corn producers, $1.58 billion to soybean growers, $551.4 million to wheat producers, $521.7 million for cotton and $131.4 million for rice producers.
Iowa has seen the largest payments so far with $607.8 million, followed by Illinois at $546.9 million, North Dakota at $478.9 million, Minnesota at $451.8 million, Texas at $407.1 million, Nebraska at $393.6 million and Kansas at $339.2 million. Payments have totaled $200 million or more in Indiana ($268.7 million), Missouri ($246.9 million) and Arkansas ($206.3 million).
Mexico seeks to renew tomato agreement... The Mexican government said it hopes to begin talks with the U.S. to renew a bilateral agreement on Mexican tomato exports from which Washington has said it intends to withdraw. The pullout by the U.S. entails duties of nearly 20.91% on most Mexican tomato exports from July 14, after the U.S. Commerce Department said the agreement had failed to protect domestic tomato growers.
“A 90-day window is now open, there is going to be a conversation with the United States, we are looking for this agreement to be renewed,” Mexican Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue said. “They already did it in 2019, just like now,” he added.
The two countries have another similar agreement that covers sugar under which Mexico can only send sugar to the U.S. under a system of quotas and quality specifications.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Berdegue also said Mexico has its own anti-dumping investigations that could be activated on two U.S. products: chicken and pork.