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USDA releases Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook…
Beef/cattle: Those looking for herd rebuilding will be disappointed. USDA projects ongoing tightening in calves available for placement in late 2025 and early 2026. A gradual change in beef cow and replacement heifer inventories may occur over the period, but the expectation is for little change. The result is lowered forecasts for beef production in 2025 and 2026, leading to a forecast for even higher cattle prices, strong beef prices amid tighter overall cattle supplies. Imports of beef from Brazil were lowered ‘considerably’ alongside a moderate downward revision to 2025/2026 U.S. beef exports.
Pork/Hogs: The agency reduced 2025 total pork production 1 percent from last month’s forecast to 27.7 billion pounds on slower slaughter rates and reduced dressed weights. Producer-sold hog prices, however, were forecast to increase more than 17 percent y-o-y in Q3 2025 to $77 per cwt. The report notes pork exports increased 5 percent y-o-y in June to 552 million pounds.
Dairy: Larger herds and increased yields will lead to an increase in overall milk production in 2025 and 2026. The all-milk price was unchanged at $22.00 per hundredweight (cwt) for 2025. The 2026 price forecast was projected at $21.90 per cwt with expectations of stronger demand for butter and nonfat dry milk. Exports were revised higher for both 2025 and 2026 while forecasts for domestic use across milk-fat and skim-solids bases were mixed.
Click here to view the report…
Tragedy strikes Colorado dairy… Six people in Northeast Colorado died last week after what’s being described by officials as a “dairy accident” at Prospect Valley Dairy. One of the deceased was a student in the Weld School District. Three other people were taken to a local hospital and released. Officials report the deaths were due to hydrogen sulfide exposure in a confined space due to a pipe leak.
The Occupational Health and Safety Administration says hydrogen sulfide occurs naturally in crude petroleum and natural gas, but is also produced by decomposing manure.
It’s mildly irritating to people’s eyes and respiratory systems when exposed to it in low doses, but it can quickly become deadly when people are exposed to large amounts in a confined space. The Weld County Coroner’s Office said that all the victims were male. The property is owned by Prospect Valley Dairy LLC and lists a Bakersfield, California, address for the owners.
Industry says reallocation is a must… The Environmental Protection Agency issued decisions on 175 small refinery exemptions that had lingered for years. Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, said the more than 140 granted exemptions don’t give farmers and biofuel producers the certainty that they need. “It’s imperative that EPA reallocates each and every exempt gallon in a forthcoming rule,” said Skor.
While the Renewable Fuels Association says it doubts the refineries were truly experiencing “disproportionate economic hardship” due to the RFS, President Geoff Cooper said, “We are pleased to see EPA taking an approach to implementation of these exemptions that’s minimally disruptive to the marketplace.”
Clean Fuels Alliance America said EPA’s “course correction” on exemptions creates fresh uncertainty for America’s farmers and biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF producers. Devin Mogler, President and CEO of the National Oilseed Processors Association, said his group urges EPA to finalize a reallocation policy that fully accounts for the lost gallons.
Notable closes:
Soybean futures chopped around unchanged most of the day session but managed to eek out mild gains by the close. Bloomberg reported China will send a commerce minister to talk trade with U.S. officials, signaling a glimmer of progress in negotiations, although the market was unimpressed.
- September beans gained 3 ¼ cents to $10.28 ¾
- November beans added 1 ¾ cent to $10.49 ½.
Cash cattle trade scored another record last week, rising $1.61 from the previous week to $239.39 as Choice and Select beef each rose. Cattle futures responded positively to the strong demand news.
- October live cattle gained $1.37 ½ to $238.20
- December live cattle firmed a buck-87 to $239.92 1/2.
- September feeders added $3.15 to close at $365.05