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NCGA examines potential market impacts of E15… If Congress passed legislation that allowed for year-round, nationwide access to fuels with 15% ethanol blends, corn use in ethanol could increase by 50% at full implementation, supporting a higher market price for corn and energy stability for Americans, according to a new analysis released by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).
NCGA has spent months calling on Congress to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, which would eliminate an outdated regulation that prevents the sale of fuel with 15% ethanol blends, referred to as E15.
Over the next decade, USDA forecasts corn use in ethanol to stay near the current 5.6-billion-bushel level and near the current share of total corn use. But the trend for corn production, in the U.S. and globally, is expected to continue rising on productivity gains and expanded production area in other nations. Without allowing demand to increase correspondingly, the analysis notes, the increased supply will further depress already below-breakeven market prices.
Corn grower advocates say it is their goal to get E15 legislation across the finish line by year’s end. President Trump has expressed unwavering support for the legislation. -source: NCGA Press Release
IEA predicts crude oversupply… The International Energy Agency said a record oversupply of crude oil will be bigger than previously estimated and the excess is already starting to build up on ocean-going tankers. World oil supply will exceed demand by almost 4 million barrels a day next year, an unprecedented overhang in annual terms, according to the IEA’s latest monthly report.
Land market economics on shaky ground… The farmland market continued its year-long search for direction in the third quarter. The economists at Agricultural Economic Insights say that, depending on the survey and the time frame, farmland prices moved slightly up, down a bit, or stayed flat. This is evidence of a market that is plateauing and trying to find reasons for prices to go either up or down.
The factors influencing the land market continued to be in flux, with more questions than answers at this juncture. Activity in the farmland market during the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026 will depend on buyers’ and sellers’ views of the ever-changing factors. The supply of farmland for sale and the level of demand to buy it will, as always, drive prices.
Uncertainty among small business owners increases, as optimism sinks… The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.
“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges.
Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose by 3 points from August to 11%. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, up 2 points from August. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 1 point from August.
Price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Unadjusted, 33% of owners reported higher average selling prices and 10% reported lower average prices. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% plan to increase prices in the next three months, up five points from August.
Canadian tractor and combine sales climb… According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturer’s monthly “Flash Report,” the sale of all tractors during September, 2025 in Canada were up 7% from the same month last year.In September, a total of 1,816 tractors were sold which compares to 1,694 sold in 2024.
For the month, two-wheel drive smaller tractors (under 40 HP) were up 11% from last year, while 40 & under 100 HP were up 14%. Sales of 2-wheel drive 100+ HP were up 5%, while 4-wheel drive tractors were down 65%. Combine sales in September totaled 125 up 42% from last year.
For the year, total tractor sales are up 2%. Smaller tractors (under 40 HP) are up 5%, 40 and under 100 HP are up 5% while 100+ HP are down 11%. Sales of 4-wheel drive tractors are down 7%. For the year, combine sales totaled 1,402 through September which is 5% above 2024.
GM dims lights on EV production… General Motors says it will incur a $1.6 billion charge related to shifting away from electric-vehicle production plans, underscoring the toll on U.S. carmakers from declining demand and flagging federal support for electric vehicles. Along with the expense of reconfiguring production capacity, other charges are related to contract cancellation fees and commercial settlements associated with EV investments which, the company sayswill have a cash impact.
Notable closes…
SRW wheat futures posted short-covering gains amid support from a correctively weaker U.S. dollar.
- December HRW wheat futures were 7 ¼ cents higher at $4.88 ½
- December SRW wheat gained 3 ½ cents to close at $5.00 ¼
- December spring wheat closed at $5.53 ½, that’s up 2 cents today
Corn futures notched mild corrective gains in today’s trade. USDA reported weekly corn inspections of 1.13 MMT for the week ended Oct. 9, down 572 thousand MT from the previous week but still well ahead of year ago.
- December corn futures were 2 ¼ cents higher at $4.13
- March corn added 2 cents to $4.29 ¼
- May corn futures closed at $4.38 up 1 ½ cent on the day