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Farm support payments delayed by shutdown… The Trump administration has pushed back its plans to roll out economic aid for farmers this week due to the government shutdown, according to four people familiar with the talks. The Office of Management and Budget has readied between $12 billion and $13 billion to be allocated from an internal USDA account, some of which could be used to fund the [support payments] for farmers hurt by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and other economic headwinds, according to the four people with knowledge of the decision, all granted anonymity to share private details.
No final decision has been made on just how much of the money will go toward farm aid, the people said, and the package won’t be coming out any time soon. The timeline has been further delayed because some USDA political appointees have been furloughed during the shutdown. Officials have been weighing using tariff revenue, USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation fund and other alternative methods to alleviate farmers’ financial stress. There is precedent: Trump tapped USDA’s internal fund to dole out $28 billion worth of [support payments] during his first-term trade war with China. -source: Grace Yarrow, Politico
Purdue University survey finds farmers pessimistic on current economic conditions… Farmer sentiment held steady in September as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose one point to a reading of 126. However, there was a shift in producers’ perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions fell seven points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations climbed five points to 128. Farmers are concerned about current conditions, particularly over record-high corn and soybean yields, which are pressuring crop prices.
At the same time, optimism about the future was supported by farmers’ belief that U.S. policy is headed in the “right direction” and by expectations that potential government support, like the 2019 Market Facilitation Program, will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices. The September Farm Financial Performance Index dropped three points to a reading of 88, making it the third consecutive month farmers have lowered their expectations for 2025.
Machinery Pete Sees Used Tractor Values Coming on Strong… “Finding its footing” is the tag line Greg “Machinery Pete” Peterson uses to describe the current state of the tractor segment in the farm equipment auction world.
Pete is seeing value stabilization come into play after the used tractor class weathered a major drop in auction pricing last fall. It’s a boomerang effect on the heels of an aggressive push of used late-model tractors to auction by equipment dealers at the end of 2024. By proactively managing inventories last year, Pete says, dealers now are in a better inventory position and used tractor prices are bouncing back. Click here to read the entire AgWeb.com article…
Missouri River Basin runoff above average in September… Although the overall runoff in September was above average in the upper Missouri River Basin, the runoff at the Fort Peck and Garrison reaches continues to be well below average.
“Beneficial rainfall occurred over central South Dakota and North Dakota in September, resulting in well-above average runoff into Oahe (Oh-AH-hee), Big Bend, Fort Randall, and Gavin’s Point,” said John Remus, Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Management Division. “The above-average runoff combined with the lower releases from Gavin’s Point slightly improves the System storage outlook for the beginning of the 2026 runoff season.”
September runoff was 1.3 million acre-feet, 109 percent of the average above Sioux City, Iowa. As of October 1, the total volume of water stored in the system was 50.4-million-acre feet, which is 5.7 million below the base of the system’s flood control zone. System storage will continue to decline through the fall.
Notable closes…
November feeders opened slightly higher and on session lows and rallied to a new contract high.
- December live cattle were $1.15 higher at $238.87 ½
- February live cattle up $1.50 to $242.22 ½
- November feeders were $4.57 ½ higher at $368.82 ½
The rest of the world is pushing forward with plans to turn soybean oil into fuel... bean oil yesterday was supported by biofuels news out of Bangladesh – today it was estimates that Brazil’s demand for biodiesel in 2026 could outpace this year by more than 6% helped bean oil push higher.
- November beans were 7 ½ cents higher at $10.29 ½
- January beans up 5 1/4 to $10.44 ¼
- March beans closed at $10.57 1/4, up 4 ¼ cents