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Employment slump expected to continue… Analysts expect Friday’s employment report to extend the weakest stretch of U.S. jobs growth since the pandemic, likely locking in a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. On average, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, which would be the highest level since 2021.
Ethanol exports post summertime swoon… According to the Renewable Fuels Association, U.S. ethanol exports reached 164.4 million gallons (mg) in July, easing 5% from June yet still running 28% ahead of year-ago levels. The decline was somewhat misleading: shipments of both denatured and undenatured fuel ethanol actually rose, but India’s retreat from the market—taking just 0.5 mg versus 24.2 mg the prior month—pulled the overall total lower.
Export activity was concentrated in only a dozen markets. Canada remained the largest destination, climbing 4% to a ten-month high of 67.2 mg. The European Union rebounded 42% to 28.8 mg, led by the Netherlands, while the United Kingdom nearly doubled its imports to 21.1 mg. Other notable shifts included softer demand from Colombia (down 9% to 9.9 mg) and the Philippines (down 21% to 9.5 mg), while Brazil re-entered with a six-month high of 9.2 mg.
Imports remained minimal, with the U.S. bringing in just 121,266 gallons of undenatured fuel ethanol from Brazil and Canada during July. For the year to date, imports stand at 3.5 mg.
U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, expanded 15% in July to 1.06 million metric tons (mt), marking multi-month highs in most major markets. Shipments to top buyer Mexico edged down 1% to a five-month low of 182,255 mt, but strong gains elsewhere more than offset the dip. -source: RFA Press Release
Brazilian tariff fuels ire among corn growers… U.S. corn growers and ethanol producers once enjoyed a level playing field with Brazil. But in 2017, without provocation, Brazil imposed a 20% tariff on U.S. ethanol. The tariff was suspended but was later reinstated at 16%. Then, in early 2024, Brazil increased the tariff to 18%. One of the nation’s top farmers, testifying today before members of a trade panel established by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, praised the Trump administration for investigating Brazil’s trade practices and encouraged quick action to address any wrongdoing.
“Unfortunately, Brazil does not value a level playing field and unfairly penalizes U.S. corn growers,” Illinois farmer and National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman Jr. told the panel. “Over the past decade, Brazil has taken targeted trade actions aimed at evaporating current and future demand for U.S. farmers. Brazil was the top market for U.S. ethanol exports by far,” Hartman told the panel. “But as soon as the tariff was reimposed, the market was in freefall decline. And while Brazil was imposing tariffs that resulted in a decline of American exports, Brazilian sugarcane ethanol was being imported into the United States at an increasing rate.”
Hartman suggests the United States should take reciprocal measures if negotiations do not result in Brazil’s elimination of the tariff. -source: NCGA Press Release
Formerly endangered wolf becomes dangerous nuisance… Yesterday, the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife and Fisheries held a hearing on the Enhancing Safety for Animals Act of 2025 that would delist the Mexican wolf under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Various national and regional Cattlemen’s Associations and the Public Lands Council (PLC) all support passage of this critical bill. New Mexico Cattle Growers Association (NMCGA) President-Elect Tom Paterson testified in support of this bill and described how burdensome the federal management restrictions for the Mexican wolf have become.
“Rural communities are currently facing the grave consequences from an apex predator that should be delisted. Mexican wolves now stalk local kids and the elderly, snatch and kill cats and dogs off front porches in town and even kill our kids’ horses,” said Paterson.
The Mexican wolf is listed under the Endangered Species Act as a 10(J) experimental population. Mexican wolf populations have skyrocketed in New Mexico and Arizona, while established science shows that this species is recovered and should be managed with more complete tools to protect the future of the wolf in the ecosystem as well as surrounding communities.
“Millions of taxpayer dollars have been spent to recover a species that is wreaking havoc on communities that already have to deal with intense weather conditions and other natural resource challenges. The problem is worsening,” said NCBA Executive Director of Natural Resources and PLC Executive Director Kaitlynn Glover. “Ranchers across the West commend this Subcommittee and Rep. Gosar for standing with them and working to bring relief to these impacted communities.” -source NCBA Press Release
American Bison stampede into the EU… The European Commission has proposed legislation allowing some duty-free access for U.S. bison meat into the European Union. Under the legislation, the current 20 percent tariff on U.S. bison would be eliminated under an annual tariff rate quota. National Bison Association Executive Director Jim Matheson said it’s access they’ve wanted for a long time.
“The EU has been a big goal of ours for a number of years. I would say we’ve been lobbying for 12 to 15 years to lower the tariffs and the duties on our products going over there, and, sure enough, last week, we got word that they are finally going to go ahead and eliminate those tariffs on bison, and that’s what should happen,” Matheson noted.
Australia has recently offered similar tariff relief for U.S. Bison, and the industry is reportedly eyeing sendoffs to Asia and the U.K. as its next potential lower-duty customers.
Notable closes:
Welp, so much for yesterday’s theory that hogs are following cattle futures… at least for today’s market action.
- October live cattle were $1.37 ½ lower at $236.95
- December live cattle down $1.70 to $238.55
- October feeders down $2.55 to $358.95
- October hogs up $1.20 to $95.02 ½
- December hogs up 17 ½ cents to $87.30