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China, China, China… China purchased 12.28 million MT of soybeans in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before U.S. supplies begin to dominate the global market. Bloomberg speculates those imports, mainly from Brazil, have left Chinese crushers better prepared for a winter possibly without U.S. soybeans. China’s stockpiles of imported soybeans totaled about 6.8 million tons as of last Friday, near the highest since March.
China’s export growth slowed to the weakest in six months as a slump in shipments to the U.S. deepened again, although a surge in sales to other markets kept China on track for a record trade surplus
West Coast demand a welcome shift… The California general assembly’s approval of E15 sales last week and the governor’s expected ok is expected to boost corn demand as growers make ready to harvest what is projected to be a record crop. The Renewable Fuels Association’s Troy Bredenkamp says once Governor Newsom signs the E15 bill, California will become the largest E15 consuming state in the nation saying quote, “That adds another 500, almost 600 (M) million gallons of new demand for American ethanol, when California adopts E15.”
Bredenkamp hopes the California decision will encourage congressional approval of nationwide year-round E15 sales.
Trade deal with Japan implemented… President Trump on Thursday last week signed an order to implement a trade agreement with Japan that is expected to increase U.S. agricultural sales by $8 billion a year. Over the past five years, Japan has bought on average just under $12.9 billion in annual farm goods from the U.S. In detailing the agreement, the White House cited, “Critically, unlike any other agreement in American history, the Government of Japan has agreed to invest $550 billion in the United States.”
Those investments will be chosen by the U.S. government and are expected to “generate hundreds of thousands of United States jobs, expand domestic manufacturing, and secure American prosperity for generations,” according to the White House.
Separately, Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor said in a press release, “As the effects of this agreement ripple out, it will drive new business between U.S. ethanol producers and Japanese buyers, which in turn will translate into more corn purchases and more income for American farmers. We commend the administration for keeping its promises on trade and look forward to watching these agreements bear fruit for American farmers and rural communities.”
According to Growth Energy, the U.S. exported 129 million gallons of ethanol to Japan in 2024 primarily as ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE). Through July 2025 the U.S. had exported 82 million gallons of ethanol to Japan, putting the industry on track to exceed last year’s total.
Population trends among U.S. Trading Partners… Washington, DC -- Long-term trends of decreasing population growth are projected to continue over the next decade for most countries. Major U.S. trading partners with high incomes and declining fertility rates are expected to be especially affected.
For example, the population growth rate for Japan has been below zero and the population has been shrinking since 2009. The Eurozone is projected to have a near-zero (below 0.1 percent) population growth rate in 2025, a trend that is expected to continue for the next decade. For Mexico and Canada, population growth is projected to remain positive over the next decade (2025-34) but will grow at a slower rate than the previous decade (2015-24).
China, the third-largest purchaser of U.S. agricultural exports by value, is projected to experience negative population growth by 2034.
USDA posits a slowly growing or declining consumer base can reduce demand for imported agricultural products, affecting export opportunities for U.S. farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses. -source: USDA Press Release
Net Farm Income Projected to rise; for some… USDA’s September 2025 net farm income forecast, released Sept. 3, projects net farm income will rise sharply from 2024. While stronger performance in some sectors is a factor in the increase, much of it is tied to continued support from government disaster assistance.
Cash receipts from crop sales are forecasted to decrease by $6.1 billion, or 2.5%, from $242.7 billion in 2024 to $236.6 billion in 2025. USDA lowered its crop cash receipts projection by $17 billion from the $253.6 billion forecast in February 2025. If this forecast is realized, this would be the lowest cash receipts for crop sales since 2007.
Total animal/animal product cash receipts are forecast to increase by $30 billion, or 11.2%, from $268.6 billion in 2024 to $298.6 billion in 2025. Receipts for all major animal/animal products are expected to grow mostly from higher prices. If realized, this would be a record high for cash receipts from animals and animal products.
Milk is the only major animal product with cash receipts forecast to fall with USDA estimating a $500 million, or 1%, drop, from $50.7 billion in 2024 to $50.2 billion in 2025.
Notable closes…
A round of much-needed short-covering supported wheat futures. The high-range close sets the stage for followthrough buying.
- December HRW wheat futures were 12 cents higher at $5.17 ¼
- December SRW wheat up 4 ½ cents to $5.23 ¾
- December spring wheat closed at $5.76 ¾ up 10 ¾ cents
Export inspections of corn in the week ended September 4 totaled nearly 1.443 million metric tons – that was at the high end of trade expectations and gets the new-crop marketing year off to a great start.
- December corn futures were 3 ¾ cents higher at $4.21 3/4
- March corn up 3 cents to $4.39 1/2
- May corn futures closed at $4.49 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents