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China hints at relief on Canadian ag tariffs… A year ago, Canada levied 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese-made electric Vehicles (EV). The move was made in concert with the United States in an effort to safeguard the North American Auto industry. China responded with tariffs against Canada’s ag sector, targeting Canadian pork products, seafood, and, by far the largest of the categories, canola.
Rick White, CEO of the Canadian Canola Growers Association told reporters, “Since these tariffs have come on, no canola has been going to China, whether it’s seed, oil, or meal. We know this is a political problem, and it’s going to take a political fix.” Over the past year, Saskatchewan, Canada’s largest canola producing province, has seen its canola exports decline by 75%.
In a recent appearance on Canadian television, China’s Ambassador suggested China may be willing to drop its levies on Canadian ag exports, including canola, if Ottawa would drop its tariffs on EV’s. Canadian auto makers bristled, telling the Prime Minister’s Office removing barriers to Chinese EV imports into Canada would do material harm to the automotive industry.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged his office is taking a fresh look at the issue.
Brazil pricing themselves out… High premiums on Brazilian cargoes are discouraging soybean buyers in China, which means the country has yet to secure much of its needed soybean supply for December and January. Reuters says the development could prompt the Chinese government to tap state reserves to meet the near-term needs. China covered its needs through November with hefty buys from Argentina in recent weeks, but still needs eight to nine million metric tons for December and January.
Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to shut American soybeans from the market. “China isn’t buying U.S. beans because of the trade war, and Brazilian beans have become too expensive,” one oilseed trader at an international trading company that supplies agricultural products to China told Reuters anonymously. “China might end up using its own reserves for its year-end needs and into early next year, and will wait until the new South American harvest comes in.”
FBN warns about upside risk in key farm chemicals… The Farmers Business Network anticipates pricing for glyphosate and glufosinate coming from China rising in the wake of a 20 percent tariff. The company says other vital farm chemistry including 2,4-D, are already subject to significant duties while warning additional countervailing and anti-dumping duties could drive levies to around 170 percent.
Clean Fuels Alliance makes impact clear… Today, Clean Fuels Alliance America shared with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin projections of the economic impact for U.S. soybean farmers and processors of EPA’s proposed supplemental “SRE reallocation volume” to the 2026 and 2027 RFS volumes. EPA is co-proposing to either fully (100%) or partially (50%) account for 2023-25 small refinery exemptions granted this year by adding a supplemental volume in 2026 and 2027.
Clean Fuels engaged World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services (WAEES) to provide EPA economic analysis of the co-proposed 100% and 50% reallocation supplemental volumes as well as a scenario with 0% reallocation. WAEES’ analysis indicates that if EPA adopts the 50% reallocation proposal rather than complete (100%) reallocation, the results over the 2026 - 2027 timeframe will include:
- 490 million gallons in lost biomass-based diesel production;
- $1.4 billion in lost soybean farm revenue
- a $1.8 billion drop in the value of soybean products to soybean crushers.
If EPA fails to reallocate any of the exempted volumes, WAEES’ analysis shows the results over the 2026 - 2027 timeframe will be considerably worse:
- 1 billion gallons in lost biomass-based diesel production
- $2.6 billion in lost soybean farm revenue
- a $4.9 billion drop in the value of soybean products to soybean crushers.
Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels’ Vice President of Federal Affairs, stated, “Clean Fuels urges EPA to quickly finalize the robust, timely RFS volumes it proposed in June and ensure they are not eroded by small refinery exemptions.” -source: Clean Fuels Alliance America news release
Your weekend read…
The farm machinery math ain’t mathin’ for Mike Hynek.
Across a 50-plus-year career in the fields of extreme southcentral Nebraska, Hynek contends the gap between agribusiness and common farmers has never been greater.
“Fertilizer, chemicals, and seed creeped up over 20 years, but the past five years prices have been downright crazy, and maybe the most frustrating of all is agriculture equipment,” he says. “I’m repeating what you’ll hear from any farmer on the turn row, anywhere in the country: The big machinery companies have lost sight of us.”
Farmer hide is as hard as hickory. However, peel off a thin layer, year over year, and eventually thick skin wears to bone. “I’m speaking up about a damn shame,” Hynek adds. “We’re being driven to the breaking point.”
Read the entire article by Chris Bennett titled, “Nebraska Farmer Calls Out Agriculture Machinery Companies Over High Prices” on AgWeb.com.
Notable closes…
November bean futures opened Monday near the low of the week and ended today near the high of the week.
- November beans were 8 ¾ cents higher at $10.19 1/2
- January beans up 8 1/4 to $10.36 3/4
- March beans closed at $10.50 3/4, up 7 cents
President Trump’s comments about having a plan to “bring beef prices down” triggered today’s aggressive long liquidation. Boxed beef trade didn’t get the memo... movement was outstanding this morning at 139 loads with Choice beef up 89 cents to a new high for the week.
- December live cattle were $6.05 lower at $241.82 ½
- February live cattle down $6.72 ½ to $242.82 ½
- November feeders were down the limit – $9.25 lower at $371.70