This is an updated version of an article that appeared in the Oct. 24 Pro Farmer weekly newsletter.
USDA anticipates a record soybean yield, pegging the national average at 53.1 bu. per acre in its October Crop Production Report. That is modestly shy of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimate of 53.3 bu. per acre. Crop Tour found ample pods and a crop that had the moisture needed to finish. While harvest got off to a late start due to a wet September, it has caught up to average.
Yield reports across the Soybean Belt carry a consistent tune. Record yields are the norm rather than the exception this year, especially in Crop Tour states. The risk is for yields to work higher, possibly surpassing our estimate, yet the market has shown resilience, especially compared to corn and wheat over the past several weeks.
Our analysis of FSA certified acres indicates a late-season change to harvested acres is unlikely, meaning any change to the supply side of the balance sheet will have to come from a change in yield.
Domestic demand remains robust
Crushers continue to make money hand over fist, averaging around $2.50 per bu., well above the long-term average around $1.38 per bushel. Crushers took time for seasonal maintenance in August ahead of anticipated new-crop supplies in September, which ultimately led to relatively low crush for two consecutive months. Crush use totaled around 201 million bushels in September, the lowest since Aug. 2025. Harvest delays led to a lack of supplies, especially in Iowa, drawing the national number down despite most crushers operating at capacity.
Soyoil stocks fell to the lowest mark in nearly 12 years, showing robust demand. The combination of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, war in the Black Sea and high renewable volume obligations are driving demand for soyoil. Meal demand has held up better than expected, which led to the ongoing rally in meal prices, further bolstering crusher margins.
China demand living up to expectations
China has purchased 15.1 MMT of soybeans with unknown destinations adding another 6.2 MMT, a significant portion of which is likely booked by China. That total of 21.3 MMT is just 3.7 MMT shy of the 25 MMT goal for the marketing year, a target that is within reach. The market has not reacted to a slew of purchases over the past week announced via daily sales, indicating that either funds are in liquidation mode and ignoring fundamentals or that Chinese demand was already priced in. We sit in the former camp.
Total commitments for soybeans (outstanding sales plus accumulated shipments) totaled 962.7 million bushels for the week ended Oct. 15. That is the most for this time of year since 2022-23. The pace of export shipments as a proportion of expected annual exports is off to the best start since 2023-24, a positive sign that exports could top current expectations. USDA is likely behind the curve on the export estimate. Given the huge influx of Chinese buying since the latest export data, that holds even more true. The demand prospects for U.S. soybeans on the domestic and world markets are likely to quickly consume any increase in production.
Quick look to 2027
The soybean/corn ratio has shifted in favor of higher bean acres in recent weeks amid relative strength. Concerns over input costs for corn have shifted producer preferences over to soybean plantings as well. Coming off a year of 183.7 million corn and soy acres, more of those acres could shift to soybeans next year.
Attention remains on South American production
Last week Dr. Michael Cordonnier, Pro Farmer crop consultant, increased his production estimate for Brazil. This week he noted some concerns over portions of the south central areas due to wetness. Conab and USDA have increased their estimates in recent weeks also. The effect of El Niño on Brazilian production remains a wild card. China has showcased its talent as a savvy trader, taking advantage of cheap products, whether from the U.S. market or from Brazil.