Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 cents to $4.80 3/4, near mid-range for the day.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw modest technical selling pressure today. Big gains in the U.S. dollar index today to a 1.5-year high also limited the upside in corn. Combines in the Corn Belt are running in high gear, which is also prompting better commercial hedge pressure on corn futures.
World Weather Inc. today said corn harvest is occurring rapidly in most areas and will continue that way over most of the next two weeks, but around two rounds of organized precipitation. East-central and southeastern Missouri to Kentucky and southern Indiana will see rain during the next couple days.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. Another bear flag or bearish pennant pattern may also be forming on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.57 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.88 1/4 and then at $4.95. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.76 and then at last week’s low of $4.70 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 1/2 cents to $12.77 1/4, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal rose $1.30 to $364.50, near the daily high. December soybean oil lost 96 points to 67.06 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market bulls were sorely disappointed today that prices sold off following news USDA reported daily sales of 470,000 MT of U.S. beans to China during 2026-27. Also, Chinese state buyers bought 8 to 10 Panamax cargoes of U.S. soybeans this week, Reuters reported overnight, marking the first such deals since last month’s summit meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Reuters, citing three trade sources, said the cargoes are for shipment from December onward. A solid rebound in soybean meal futures in late trading today did pull beans slightly up from their daily low.
Commercial hedge selling pressure is stronger this week as combines are rolling full speed over most of the Midwest. The strong U.S. dollar index that today hit a 1.5-year high was also bearish for the soy complex.
China’s soybean crushing sector faces significant overcapacity with daily crushing capacity of imports set to exceed 520,000 MT by the end of the year, an industry official said earlier today.
Soybean complex traders will get the monthly NOPA soybean crush report on Thursday.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will briefly disrupt the U.S. Midwest harvest over the next few days from Nebraska and Kansas to the Great Lakes region, but a period of welcome drying will follow to limit the impact of rain delays. The U.S. Delta and southeastern states will be dry for an extended period of time, supporting good or improving harvest conditions. Meantime, southern Brazil is too wet but a change toward drying will begin Thursday and last into early next week. Timely rain is expected in center-west and perhaps some northeastern crop areas later this week into next week.
Technical analysis: November soybeans still see a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s high of $13.09. First support is seen last week’s low of $12.69 3/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $368.80 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at $355.00 and then at $352.60.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.25 cents and then at this week’s high of 70.08 cents. First support is seen at the September low of 66.61 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 4 cents to $6.73 1/4, near the daily high. December HRW rose 2 3/4 cents to $7.15, near the daily high and hit another three-month low early on. December spring wheat futures fell 4 cents to $6.90, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering amid choppy trading again today. Prices remain trapped in downtrends on the daily bar charts. A strong U.S. dollar index that today hit a 1.5-year high did limit buying interest in wheat futures.
FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for 2026-27 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season, citing reduced competition from the Black Sea region as attacks continue to disrupt grain shipments.
World Weather Inc. today said recent heat and dryness in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas have reduced soil moisture, but portions of the region and the lower Midwest will receive rain more frequently in the coming week to induce better emergence and establishment conditions. Oklahoma, northern Texas and parts of the Delta need rain most as is the case for the Pacific Northwest. Rain and snow in Montana Sunday and early Monday added some moisture for wheat establishment in that part of the nation. Meantime, western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture. Many areas from Slovakia and Hungary into Greece and east across Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region are also dry. Rain is needed in all of these areas. India’s wheat planting is under way and will continue over the next few weeks. Some beneficial moisture is present in the far north, but other areas need more rain to ensure the best emergence and establishment in unirrigated fields.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.81 and then at $6.90. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.61 1/2 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.25 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 15 points to 80.66 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a nearly three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw modest short covering and perceived bargain hunting today from the chart-based specs. The near-term technical posture for cotton futures has turned more bullish this week. Firmer crude oil prices that hit a nearly three-week high today were friendly for cotton futures. However, the strong U.S. dollar index that hit a 1.5-year high today did temper gains in cotton futures.
Tuesday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed that as of Sunday, 31% of the U.S. cotton crop had been harvested, with 82% of the crop’s bolls opening. The crop was rated at 36% poor to very poor, 30% fair and 34% good to excellent.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. cotton quality was compromised in the southeastern states, Arizona and southern California recently by rain, but the region will be dry for the next 10 days to two weeks, inducing some improvement. Some periodic rain will impact west Texas and southwestern Oklahoma over the coming 10 days, with multiple days of dry weather between rain events. The Delta crops have been kept in the best condition and will remain dry for much of the coming ten days.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures have seen a price downtrend on the daily chart negated and prices are now in a fledgling uptrend, to give the bulls some momentum. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 77.05 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 82.25 cents and then at 83.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 79.38 cents and then at last week’s low of 78.77 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.