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Corn
Price action: March corn rose 6 1/2 cents to $4.30 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. For the week, December corn was up 5 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market saw more short covering today and perceived bargain hunting after the weekly USDA export sales report was very impressive. The agency reported weekly U.S. corn sales of 4.01 MMT for the week ended Jan. 15, which were a marketing-year high. Net sales were up noticeably from the previous week and the four-week average, easily topping the pre-report range of 1.9 to 3.1 MMT. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in corn futures set the stage for follow-through technical buying early next week.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, rain through early next week will be focused on northern Brazil where the remaining drier areas in Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is slowed across the region. Little rain will fall from Mato Grosso do Sul and most of Sao Paulo southward into Paraguay and southern Brazil and fieldwork should advance swiftly. By early next week a larger part of the region will be short of soil moisture and in need of rain to improve conditions for developing crops. Shower activity will expand Tuesday into the first week of February and relief from dryness will occur in the areas mentioned above with the rain too light initially in southern Paraguay and far southern Brazil to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. In Argentina, many of the driest areas in southwestern Argentina will benefit from showers and thunderstorms into Sunday and notable improvements in crop and soil conditions will occur, but rain will not be widespread and much of the significant rain will be confined to San Luis and southwestern Cordoba to La Pampa and western Buenos Aires. Additional rain is expected in western Argentina Monday into Wednesday with another round of rain Thursday into Sunday, Feb. 1 that should favor western and northern areas. Much of western and northern Argentina will be left with favorable soil moisture by early February, while southeastern into parts of central and east-central Argentina are not likely to receive enough rain to prevent significant drying of the soil and rising levels of crop stress. Warm to hot temperatures during the next week will cause rapid increases in crop stress in the drier areas.
90-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor the U.S. government’s intentions on ethanol blends in gasoline. Legislation to allow year-round sales of higher ethanol blends in the U.S. was left out of a suite of 2026 spending bills, as lawmakers sought to avoid another government shutdown. While futures did not react negatively, producers and the National Corn Growers Association were quick to show disapproval. If the government continues to nix year-round sales of higher ethanol blends, such could become a bearish fundamental in the coming months. USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report at the end of March may be the next major grain markets mover.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 3 3/4 cents to $10.67 3/4 near mid-range and for the week were up 10 cents. March soybean meal rose $3.70 to $299.90, near the daily high and on the week up $9.90. March bean oil rose 21 points to 53.99 cents, nearer the session low and hit a five-month high early on. For the week, March bean oil was up 138 points.
5-day outlook: Soybean and meal futures markets closed at technically bullish weekly high closes today, which sets the table for follow-through, chart-based buying early next week. Soybean meal saw a very good trading week, which also gives the soybean bulls some better confidence heading into next week. Solid weekly USDA U.S. soybean sales also supported buying interest in beans and meal today. The agency reported soybean sales of 2.45 MMT for the week ended Jan. 15, a marketing year high and up 19% from the previous week--and 92% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 1.5 MMT to 3.0 MMT.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said drying in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next 7-8 days will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already drying down. Some welcome showers are advertised after this period, though confidence is not high and the situation will need to be closely monitored. Good crop weather will prevail elsewhere. Pro Farmer crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier noted early crop development had been good, but since dryer-than-normal conditions have started to impact the crops as they start to enter reproduction.
90-day outlook: China continues to purchase U.S. soybeans, advancing closer to the agreed-upon 12 million MT figure. The soybean and entire grain futures markets complex needs U.S.-China relations to continue to improve and the present trade truce to hold up for the markets to have better chances of sustaining price uptrends in the coming months. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat rose 14 cents to $5.29 1/2, near the session high, hit a five-week high and for the week up 11 1/2 cents. March HRW wheat gained 15 cents to $5.40 3/4, near the daily high, closed at a two-month high close and on the week up 13 1/2 cents. March spring wheat futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.75, nearer the session high and for the week up 10 cents..
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets were in solid rally mode today, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The markets were also supported by USDA reporting weekly U.S. wheat sales of 618,100 MT for the week ended Jan. 15, which were up noticeably from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range of 150,000 to 450,000 MT. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in winter wheat futures markets will also invite the chart-based specs to play the long sides early next week. Wheat traders are also watching a major winter storm in the Plains states that has the potential to produce some winterkill.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said a close watch on U.S. temperatures and snowfall this week is warranted. Bitter cold this morning have raised a little concern for wheat in Illinois and parts of east-central and north-central Montana where no snow was on the ground. Nebraska received snow overnight to protect its wheat crop and temperatures in Kansas were not low enough to be an issue. Snow is expected in many areas from the central Plains into the Midwest this weekend to protect winter crops from damage. North-central into eastern Montana and a few pockets in the western Dakotas may not have sufficient snow cover and some damage is possible. The losses are unlikely to be very great, though. Meantime, bitter cold in western Russia and northeastern Europe recent has had no negative impact on winter crops because of significant snow cover and no changes in the situation are warranted for the coming week to ten days. Warming is likely next week. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased and will continue to be eased. Tunisia dryness has also been eased recently with more moisture coming. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture as well and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be coming in the next week to 10 days.
90-day outlook: Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar index that today was poised to close at its lowest level since early October is a bullish element for the wheat futures markets. In hard red spring wheat, short-covering gains from the Jan. 16 low led nearby futures above key technical areas, though the upside is likely to be capped by resistance at the Dec. 24 high. A sideways to lower pattern seems likely, though the three-month-long pattern of consolidation could be a basing pattern and ultimately a longer term floor if an upside breakout were to occur
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 7 points to 63.81 cents, near mid-range, hit a four-week low and for the week down 105 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market bulls continued to fade this week, on technical selling pressure. Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in March cotton sets the table for some more chart-based selling pressure early next week. Bulls were disappointed that solid weekly USDA export sales and shipments of cotton could not boost futures prices. USDA today reported U.S. cotton sales of 412,500 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--a marketing-year high--were up 21 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (220,700 RB, including 4,400 RB switched from China), Bangladesh (38,600 RB), Pakistan (31,800 RB, including decreases of 2,700 RB) and Malaysia (26,500 RB). Exports of 187,800 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 20 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (62,300 RB), Pakistan (45,900 RB), Indonesia (16,600 RB) and Bangladesh (14,100 RB).
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said most U.S. cotton areas from southeastern Arizona through West Texas, the Texas Black Lands and upper Texas coast to the Delta and portions of the southeastern states will be impacted by the Friday through Sunday storm system. The precipitation will improve topsoil moisture for possible use in the spring, though much more moisture will be needed. South Texas will get little to no moisture leaving the soil quite dry. South Texas plants cotton first, usually in early March leaving more than a month of time for improved soil moisture. Precipitation that falls from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama will be welcome, but drought conditions will prevail and more moisture will be needed later this spring. Meantime, late season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. However, hot temperatures are coming this weekend into next week raising the potential for stress especially in New South Wales. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina crop conditions are favorable and improving. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next 10 days.
90-day outlook: U.S.-China trade relations will be a key for cotton in the coming months. Weekly U.S. cotton export sales need to continue to be solid in the coming months, including to China, for the cotton market bulls to expect sustainable price uptrends to occur. The National Cotton Council will meet in February and release the first 2026 acreage projection.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.