Corn
Price action: December corn rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.87 1/2, near the daily high and hit a two-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw fresh speculator and technical buying interest as a heat wave persists in the Plains and far western Corn Belt. Some weather forecasters are saying the heat in the Midwest will build heading into August. And the near-term chart posture for the corn futures market remains bullish and is getting more bullish. Geopolitical and related production risks continue to loom and are limiting selling any interest in corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 332,700 MT for 2026-27 during the week ended July 16, up 6% from the previous week but down 44% from the four-week average. Net sales of 701,500 MT were reported for 2026-27. Net sales were shy of pre-report expectations, which ranged from 400,000 to 800,000 MT for old-crop but were near the upper- end of expectations for new-crop sales.
Drought conditions eased modestly in the U.S., with the July 21 drought monitor showing a 0.5% decline from the previous week. Currently, 19% of corn acres, 18% of soybean acres and 24% of spring wheat acres are in D1-D4 drought.
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt over the next 10 days, resulting in some concern over yield potential because reproduction for corn has begun. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.90 1/4 and then at $4.95. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.83 and then at $4.75.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 4 3/4 cents to $12.43 3/4, near mid-range and hit a contract high. September soybean meal fell $0.80 to $328.80, near mid-range and hit an eight-month high early on. September soybean oil rose 16 points to 74.69 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a six-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw more technical buying interest from the specs today amid weather in the Midwest that some weather forecasters say will heat up moving out of July. Recent China demand for U.S. soybeans is also bullish. USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 126,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean sales of 56,400 MT for 2026-27 during the week ended July 16, down 70% from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales of 1.537 MMT for 2026-27 were primarily to China. Net sales were within pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and yield potential should be high in most areas into the first week of August, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt where low soil moisture and periods of heat will stress crops. Temperatures will not be hot through the period but heat will stress crops in parts of the region Saturday into Monday. There is still some moisture in the soil and that should prevent rapid increase in crop stress and reductions in yields, but if rain does not increase soon notable production cuts are likely.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $12.50 and then at $12.65. First support is seen at $12.25 and then at this week’s low of $12.07 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the November 2025 high of $341.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $316.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $333.60 and then at $335.00. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 75.48 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.68 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW lost 9 1/2 cents to $6.96 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a contract high early on. September HRW fell 3 3/4 cents to $7.59 3/4, near mid-range. September spring wheat futures rose 1 cent to $7.30.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some mild profit-taking pressure today following recent good gains. Bulls could argue this was a needed pause if the bull-market run is to be extended. The technical posture remains bullish. Fundamentally, there are ongoing concerns about global grain supplies and transporting them amid tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 290,000 MT for 2026-27 during the week ended July 16, up 23% from the previous week but down 14% from the four-week average. Net sales were within pre-report expectations.
A crop tour this week headed by the Wheat Quality Council is reporting yield projections for North Dakota down 4 bushels an acre from last year, according to Dow Jones Newswires. At 46 bushels an acre, it’s still close to the 5-year average, but giving grain traders reason to believe that worse yields might soon be reported from the tour, the report said.
In other news, shipowners have temporarily suspended vessel arrivals at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for agricultural exports after a recent surge in Russian attacks on ports and merchant shipping, the country’s agriculture minister said. Ukraine has lost about a third of its capacity to export grain via the Black Sea ports due to Russian missile and drone attacks, traders and analysts have said.
World weather today said good harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays. Spring wheat areas in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing some yield potential. The lack of rain and continued warm to hot weather over the next ten days will perpetuate this trend. Meantime,
too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $7.10 1/4 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $6.78 and then at this week’s low of $6.65 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $7.68 1/2 and then at $7.80. First support is seen at $7.40 and then at Wednesday’s low of $7.34 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 10 points to 81.21 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw mild technical buying to keep the price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart. Reduced risk appetite in the general marketplace today did limit the upside in cotton futures, as did a higher U.S. dollar index. Big gains in crude oil prices this week are price-friendly for cotton.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales of 51,300 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 49 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for China (15,500 RB), Vietnam (12,300 RB) and India (7,100 RB). Net sales of 16,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Vietnam (7,100 RB), India (4,700 RB) and Pakistan (2,200 RB). Exports of 276,300 RB were up 29 percent from the previous week and up 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (96,300 RB), Pakistan (42,700 RB) and Turkey (31,800 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place. Areas that received significant rain recently will have enough soil moisture to support dryland cotton for a while longer as the soil dries down while the many areas that failed to receive significant rain will see increasing crop stress. Scattered showers will bring up to 0.60” of rain and locally more to parts of the region Friday into Saturday. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell last week in the Blacklands and the central and northern Coastal Bend. South Texas and the southern Coastal Bend missed much of the significant rain and should see rising levels of crop stress through most of the period with temporary relief from dryness expected to result from rain today when Tropical Storm Bertha affects the region. Much of the Coastal Bend and South Texas will receive 0.25-1.25” of rain and locally more today.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 82.05 cents and then at the July high of 82.96 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 79.90 cents and then at 79.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.