Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.60 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw a modest corrective price pullback from recent good gains. Some weather forecasters were putting a bit more rain for the Corn Belt into their extended forecasts, which also somewhat dented bullish enthusiasm today.
USDA rated the corn crop as 68% good to excellent as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, with 500 being perfect), the crop increased 2.01 points to 373.63, with the most notable improvement in Ohio. The CCI rating is 9.92 points behind year-ago at this time.
Brazil’s total grain crop is expected to reach 360.11 million metric tons in the 2025-26 season, national crop agency Conab said on Tuesday, raising its forecast from the 358.64 million tons projected in June. The new estimate, driven mainly by higher soybean and corn production, would mark a 2.2% increase from the previous season, Conab said.
World Weather Inc. today said despite some heat in the west during the next week and net drying in much of Midwest during the next two weeks, moist soils in place and a lack of significant heat in most areas through at least the next week will allow corn pollination to occur favorably in much of the region and production potentials will remain quite high. Exceptions will occur in and near eastern South Dakota this week, where highs will reach the middle and upper 90s with some lower 100s with upper 90s extending into eastern Nebraska and nearby Iowa Friday and Saturday. Crops in these areas will see rising levels of stress and where corn is pollinating some declines in yields are likely due to the heat and the increasingly short soil moisture. Eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota will benefit from cooler temperatures today with crops likely to respond well to showers next Sunday into Monday. Many of the wetter areas in the Midwest will benefit from the expected drying during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.80. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at $4.65 and then at this week’s high of $4.69 1/2. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 3/4 cents to $11.91, nearer the daily high. September soybean meal rose $1.00 to $315.00, near the daily high. September soybean oil fell 49 points to 71.66 cents, near the daily low and hit a four-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets saw corrective price pullbacks today, while spread action supported meal.
USDA rated the soybean crop as 65% good to excellent as of last Sunday, up one percentage point from last week. On our CCI, the crop improved 1.05 points to 368.21, with the most notable improvements in the Delta and southern U.S. The current CCI rating trails year-ago by 5.02 points.
China’s June soybean imports rose 10.5% from a year earlier to 13.55 million metric tons, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Tuesday.
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt this week, resulting in some concern over yield potentials. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored and there is still crop moisture stress.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.07 1/4 and then at $12.14. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.85 1/2 and then at $11.72 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $317.50 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $311.10 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend back in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 73.00 cents and then at 74.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.32 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 9 3/4 cents to $6.45, nearer the daily high and closed at a six-week high close. September HRW rose 11 3/4 cents to $6.78, near the daily high and also closed at a six-week high close. September HRS rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.58.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical buying interest resurface today and were also supported by a drop in the U.S. dollar index.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the spring wheat crop as 58% good to excellent, up one percentage point from the previous week, however, the only improvements were in Minnesota and North Dakota. The current CCI is 1.53 points ahead of year-ago at this time.
World weather today said improved harvest weather is likely in the central U.S. Plains and Midwest, but dryness in the northern Plains may stress some wheat and the region needs to be closely monitored. Not much rain is expected in spring wheat areas for a while. Some crops in southern Canada’s Prairies will also dry down for about a week and then receive some welcome rain. Temperatures will be warm for a while.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.74. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.53 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.40 and then at today’s low of $6.29 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.91 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.59 1/4 and then at $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 64 points to 80.87 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw modest technical buying early on, amid a price uptrend that remains in place on the daily bar chart. However, some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators set in by the close of trading. A drop in the U.S. dollar index today was a supportive element for the cotton market, as was a tamer U.S. inflation report that should work to keep consumer confidence levels up.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture, especially in the dryland areas of the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this week and they may favor some of the drier areas in the south. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition, with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. There is a big need for rain in the Carolinas and in a part of the central Delta and most of the Texas crop areas will need rain soon. Rain is likely for many of these areas this week, although it may not be evenly distributed. Meantime, favorable harvest weather should continue in Argentina, despite a few brief showers. Some showers are slated for center west Brazil crop areas Sunday into Tuesday of next week, which might result in some field working delay and a decline in fiber quality but most of the precipitation will be too brief and light for a lasting impact.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 16% poor to very poor condition, 40% fair and 44% good to excellent. The crop is 60% squaring and 22% setting pods as of last Sunday.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 82.96 cents and then at 84.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 80.62 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.