Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 1/4 cents to $5.23, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation today as prices have broken below a three-week-old trading range at elevated levels. Lower soybean and wheat futures prices today also weighed on corn. A firmer U.S. dollar index today that is near a nearly three-month high was a bearish outside-market element for corn today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.566 MMT during the week ended Sept. 24, down 394,223 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the top end of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 1.25 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
Corn traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 57% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which would be unchanged from last week and compares to 66% in the same categories one year ago at the same time. The corn crop is expected at 19% harvested as of Sunday. The agency will also release its quarterly grain stocks report on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today said the western Corn Belt will see wet weather into Thursday, slowing fieldwork, with some heavy rain Tuesday into Thursday from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas into Iowa. Much of eastern Nebraska into Iowa and some nearby areas already have saturated or nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding is likely after rain Tuesday into Thursday. A much drier weather pattern will occur Friday into Oct. 12 and harvesting of summer crops and planting of winter wheat will quickly accelerate outside of eastern Nebraska into Iowa and nearby areas, where a gradual resumption of fieldwork is likely.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls are fading and appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09, which is the bottom of an upside gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.29 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.14 3/4 and then at $5.10.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 30 3/4 cents to $12.88 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a three-month low. December soybean meal lost $11.60 to $359.40, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil fell 18 points to 67.66 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw heavy selling pressure today as traders were disappointed that soybeans were left out of the Trump-Xi summit final statements. China is set to cut tariffs on a broad range of U.S. agricultural goods, from corn and wheat to meat and dairy, but soybeans were excluded from a tariff-reduction list jointly issued by China’s commerce ministry and the White House.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.153 MMT during the week ended Sept. 24, up 383,215 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 600,000 to 900,000 MT.
Soybean complex traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 58% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which would be unchanged from last week and compares to 62% in the same categories one year ago at the same time. The soybean crop is expected at 19% harvested as of Sunday. The agency will also release its quarterly grain stocks report on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today said additional waves of rain are coming to the western U.S. Corn Belt early to mid-week this week, delaying fieldwork. Eastern Midwest crop areas will see good drying conditions. The Delta may trend wetter later this weekend and into the weekend with some of that moisture impacting a part of the lower eastern Midwest and/or the southeastern states. Drier weather is coming to the Midwest in mid-October.
Technical analysis: November soybeans have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from the sideways trading range at higher levels, to suggest a market top is in place. Bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at today’s high of $13.22 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.79 1/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend on the daily bar chart now in serious jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $345.00. First resistance comes in at $365.00 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $358.10 and then at $355.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.18 cents and then at last week’s high of 69.20 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 14 1/2 cents to $6.88 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. December HRW fell 16 1/4 cents to $7.45 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a six-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 11 3/4 cents to $7.01 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw solid technical selling pressure today as both SRW and HRW are in price downtrends. The firmer U.S. dollar index today this is near the recent three-month high was also a bearish outside-market factor for the wheat markets. The bulls got not help today from Russia’s weekend airstrikes that killed at least four people across Ukraine and hit a data center in Kyiv, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Odesa Region Governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram that a “massive” overnight strike damaged a medical facility, a hotel, a shop, and a warehouse for storing grain crops, among other things.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 310,635 MT during the week ended Sept. 24, down 29,320 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
Russia’s September exports of wheat, barley and corn are estimated at 2.65 MMT, according to SovEcon, up from 2.4 MMT in August.
Wheat traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop 28% planted as of Sunday. The agency will also release its quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, relief to months of hot, dry, weather is coming to the southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase soil moisture from the southwestern Plains into Nebraska and temperatures will be mild to warm. Improved winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment conditions are likely as time moves along during the next two weeks. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across portions of the crop region, alongside seasonable temperatures, though much of Montana will remain drier biased. Rainfall may inhibit some fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.03 and then at $7.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.83 and then at $6.70.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen today’s high of $7.62 3/4 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.38 3/4 and then at $7.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 15 points to 82.86 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some tepid short covering today. Gains were limited by a firmer U.S. dollar index and a sell off in the grain futures today.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see another round of significant rain into Thursday that will come too late to benefit most cotton, while some cotton is likely discolored with some stringing out of cotton fibers and boll rot possible as well. Drier weather advertised for Friday through Oct. 12 and will be important in drying out cotton bolls and bleaching the fibers white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will be dry most often through the next two weeks and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment before and after a significant rain event Wednesday into Sunday that will improve drought conditions.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices still trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 88.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 83.96 and then at 84.50 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at the September low of 80.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.