Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.56, near the daily low, closed at a 3.5-month low close and for the week down 18 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market has had a technically bearish weekly low close every Friday so far this month. The bulls are hoping for a rebound in prices next week, as the Relative Strength Index shows December corn at its most technically oversold level in more than 2.5 years. U.S. corn harvest remains in high gear, which is keeping the commercial hedgers active and keeping the speculative bulls on the sidelines. A rally in Nymex WTI crude oil futures to above $100 a barrel and heightened inflation worries have not helped out the grain market bulls recently. The big managed-money funds have been continuing to exit their unusually large net-long positions they had held through most of September.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 116,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said harvesting of corn will advance well overall during the next two weeks around precipitation in most of the western Corn Belt Sunday into Tuesday, in many northern areas Wednesday into Thursday, and much of the central and southern Midwest Oct. 30-Nov. 2. In Brazil, Mato Grosso, Goias, and northern Mato Grosso de Sul will see more sunshine than rain into this weekend, with the rain that does fall not likely great enough to prevent planting from advancing well. The region sees a growing need for rain as soil moisture has not been restored in most areas and much of the region is likely to dry down overall.
90-day outlook: Attention of the grain markets will turn from U.S. supplies to export demand in the coming months. Demand for U.S. corn abroad has been decent in recent weeks. The South American growing season and weather patterns there will also move closer to the front burner of the corn futures market for the next few months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 3 1/2 cents to $12.56 1/2, near mid-range and for the week down 4 3/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $1.20 to $346.10, near the daily low and for the week down $11.00. December bean oil fell 9 points to 66.83 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 30 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean futures markets today saw some modest short covering, while meal and bean oil markets paused. With U.S. soybean harvesting at full throttle, commercial hedge selling is capping the upside for the soy complex futures, and will likely continue to do so next week. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has picked up recently. The bean bulls will be looking for more daily flash sales next week.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said southern Brazil has benefited from recent drying, but rain is expected to resume later this week which may bring back some concern about too much moisture. Center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be limited through the weekend and then rain is expected to evolve and increase next week. The moisture should improve planting, emergence and establishment conditions for the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Weather and growing conditions in Brazil and Argentina soybean regions will move closer to the front burner in the coming months, as trader focus shifts from U.S. supplies to South American supplies, as well as export demand for U.S. beans.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/4 cent to $6.25, nearer the session low and for the week down 35 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat lost 1 1/4 cents to $6.64 1/2, near mid-range, hit a more-than-three-month low and for the week down 39 1/2 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 1/4 cent to $6.41 1/2, near the daily low and for the week down 35 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw pauses today to end another bearish trading week. Technical selling pressure may resume early next week as prices continue to trend down on the daily bar charts. Any fresh news on the proposed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks among Presidents Trump, Putin and Xi will be market-sensitive for wheat futures.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said drought remains in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and a part of the Great Plains would benefit from additional moisture to induce the best establishment. Most of the Midwest crops are rated favorably but dryness is a concern in the Delta and a part of the Tennessee River Basin. Meantime, some beneficial rain will fall in western Europe Friday through the weekend improving soil moisture for wheat and barley emergence and establishment. Some new planting may occur as well. Eastern Europe will remain a little too dry, but some showers are expected. Eastern Europe needs greater moisture. Recent rain in Ukraine and Moldova was ideal in bolstering soil moisture for better winter crop establishment. Russia’s southern region, though, still needs significant rain to get crops as well established ahead of dormancy as possible. Some of that rain may evolve late next week and into the following weekend. India’s wheat planting is under way and will continue over the next few weeks. Some beneficial moisture is present in the far north, but other areas need more rain to ensure the best emergence and establishment in unirrigated fields. Recent rain in the Yellow River Basin and North China Plain has improved China’s winter crop establishment potential. Some follow up rain would be welcome. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall in recent weeks and some additional moisture that is expected in some areas. Some wheat quality declines may occur in northern New South Wales and Queensland in areas where harvesting is not complete. Most of the crop has likely been harvested. Argentina’s wheat has benefited from recent rain and more may evolve in the next couple of weeks. Temperatures will be mild to cool maintaining a favorable environment for wheat and barley development. Southern Brazil wheat is vulnerable to a quality decline from Parana into Rio Grande do Sul and Paraguay because of too much rain this year, although recent drying has helped to reduce some of that concern temporarily.
90-day outlook: Focus will remain on the amount of grain being shipped out of the Black Sea region and any progress on a ceasefire between warring Russia and Ukraine. Egypt’s state grain buyer announced intentions to purchase wheat with the likely sources from central or western Europe. The country is typically a reliable importer of wheat sourced from the Black Sea, another early sign of the impact of transit disruptions. Spring wheat futures have seen milder losses than winter wheat futures recently. Still, poor export commitments are pressuring prices as demand remains weak.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 59 points to 80.20 cents, near the daily low and for the week up 20 cents.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market remains trapped in a three-week-old trading range on the daily bar chart. Buying interest was limited by a very wobbly U.S. stock market, led by a big sell off in the technology sector recently.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather and good harvest progress today before rain Saturday into Tuesday (western and northern areas will be wettest) and showers Thursday into next Friday slows harvesting, causes quality declines and possibly causes some production cuts due to boll rot. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain. Much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
30-day outlook: Traders will be watching for signs of export demand and weather impacts on remaining crop quality. Cotton futures traders will continue to look to the grain futures markets for price direction in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: The approaching holiday season and better demand for apparel may offer some better support to cotton futures. However, sales of U.S. cotton abroad need to continue to improve in order for cotton futures prices to sustain an uptrend.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.