Corn
Price action: May corn fell 4 1/4 cents to $4.65 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week was down 1 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw some corrective selling pressure after good gains the past two sessions. A stronger U.S. dollar index today and less risk appetite in the general marketplace did limit buying interest in corn. Still, the near-term technical posture for corn leans bullish, which should at least keep a floor under futures prices next week. Any new and upsetting developments in the Middle East war next week could again squelch the corn market bulls.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks will favor Paraguay and southern, western, and northern Brazil, where the moisture will benefit Safrinha corn while fieldwork is slowed at times. Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais will be wettest overall. Central and eastern Parana into eastern Sao Paulo will be driest and the little rain that does fall there will be important to Safrinha corn, with the precipitation not likely great enough to do much more than temporarily boost topsoil moisture. Some Safrinha corn in this region may be stressed by a lack of soil moisture during the next two weeks as the soil dries down. In Argentina, enough rain should fall during the next two weeks to boost soil moisture in the drier areas and improve conditions for immature crops while temporary interruptions to fieldwork occur in most areas with a few exceptions.
The late-March USDA planting intentions report is coming more into focus, with spiking fertilizer prices and availability bringing a new twist for corn potentially less corn acres this year.
90-day outlook: The acreage debate continues to dominate discussion at this time of year. Farmers have felt the squeeze of low working capital, and those that were unable to apply nitrogen in the fall or secure spring purchases ahead of time may opt for planting more soybeans as opposed to corn due to the recent run-up in nitrogen specifically. This change in decision- making in the Midwest may be partially offset by the expectation that acres historically planted to cotton may attempt the switch to corn, as low cotton prices have pushed southern producers to find alternatives.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 7 1/4 cents to $11.61 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 48 cents. May soybean meal fell $4.50 to $328.00, nearer the session low and for the week up $5.30. May bean oil rose 10 points to 65.51 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week down 193 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw some technical selling pressure as price action this week has formed a classic bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar charts for May and July futures. Soybean bulls were also disheartened that meal futures prices today lost much of Thursday’s solid gains. A higher U.S. dollar index today was a negative outside market for the soy complex futures. The soybean complex markets bulls may be more subdued again next week due to keener risk aversion in the general marketplace, if the war in the Middle East continues to run hot.
China’s soybean imports from the U.S. dropped in the first two months of 2026, from a year earlier, as most shipments, following a late October truce haven’t arrived yet, according to Reuters. China imported 1.49 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. in January and February, down 83.7% from 9.13 MMT a year earlier, according to customs data.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said Brazil weather continues to be favorable for ongoing crop development. There is need for greater rain in southern areas and some of that will be provided in the second week outlook. Argentina will get timely rainfall in the next week to 10 days with some of it heavy enough to induce local flooding.
Data from NOPA this week that surpassed all analyst estimates is a sign that while foreign demand is in question, domestic crush use continues to be a bright spot for the soy complex futures.
The late-March USDA planting intentions report is coming more into focus, with spiking fertilizer prices and availability bringing a new twist for corn versus soybean acres this year.
90-day outlook: The limit-down price moves in May and July soybeans on Monday came after the planned summit between President’s Trump and Xi in early April was pushed back to sometime in May. The delay of the Trump-Xi summit caused concern regarding the country’s appetite for U.S. soybeans going forward.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 12 3/4 cents to $5.95 1/4, near the daily low and for the week were down 18 1/2 cents. May HRW wheat lost 21 cents to $6.06 1/4, near the daily low and the week down 23 3/4 cents. May spring wheat futures fell 15 3/4 cents to $6.28, near the daily low and for the week were down 17 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets had a choppy and volatile trading week but kept price uptrends on the daily bar charts in place. Lower corn and soybean prices today, as well as solid gains in the U.S. dollar index, helped to pressure wheat prices today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a significant and potentially historic warm-up for this time of year continues to be in-progress for the region and temperatures will occasionally be extreme by March standards, with record-breaking heat expected. The unusually strong high-pressure ridge responsible for the heat will also continue to cause dry weather. Topsoil moisture and subsoil moisture are very short in many areas and the early-season heat will further stress livestock and raise concerns in the conditions of the winter wheat crop. A weather pattern change is likely to evolve in the second week of the outlook with better opportunity for rain and potential for some cooling. Severe weather is a possibility as the changes interact with the still-lingering warmth. In the Northern Plains, some limited precipitation is still expected in the next seven days. The main weather story for the region continues to be the unusual and likely record-breaking warmth. Temperatures will occasionally be significantly warm for this time of year through Wednesday before some greater cooling occurs Thursday.
30-day outlook: Risk appetite in the general marketplace, or lack thereof amid the Middle East war will likely continue to impact the grain markets in the coming few weeks. This includes the trajectory of crude oil prices and the U.S. dollar index. The late-March USDA planting intentions report is the next major grain-market data point for traders.
90-day outlook: Soil temperatures are on the rise in the eastern U.S. as the crop begins breaking its dormancy phase. Increased fertilizer prices may alter producer decisions on the amount of nitrogen used to top dress wheat, which would limit the higher end of yields. Key growing regions remain drought stricken after missing out on rainfall last week, with wildfires now breaking out across multiple states in the southern Plains states. Cash prices have firmed favorably amid potential production concerns for the new crop. Spring wheat is one of the classes that may stand to benefit from potential Chinese purchases of non-soybean row crops. The country produces enough wheat to meet demand domestically but has shown a willingness to purchase HRS over other classes so far this year.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 36 points to 67.31 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 146 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures bulls fizzled late this week, including today’s technically bearish weekly low close. Still, Monday’s solid gains still have cotton prices in a near-term uptrend. Cotton traders next week will continue to monitor the daily price movements in crude oil, the U.S. stock indexes and the U.S. dollar index. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace due to the war in Iran could keep the cotton bulls mostly on the sidelines.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. A few showers are possible in early April, but a general soaking seems unlikely prior to that time. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected – most of which will occur in the first days of April. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Timely rain has occurred in recent weeks in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. However, soil moisture is still a little low from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama to North Carolina and timely rain will be needed later this spring to ensure the best environment for planting, emergence and establishment.
90-day outlook: An improvement in U.S.-China trade relations would be a positive on the export demand front for U.S. cotton in the coming months. Presidents Trump and Xi are now scheduled to meet sometime in May. President Trump this week reiterated that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping have a good relationship.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.