Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.64, nearer the daily low, hit a two-week low and for the week down 23 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market bulls stumbled badly this week, including today’s technically bearish weekly low close, to suggest the summertime rally has run its course. Wetter weather forecasts for the drier western Corn Belt are also bearish for prices. Solid losses in winter wheat futures markets today also weighed on corn.
FranceAgriMer rated the French corn crop as 34% good to excellent as of July 27, down four percentage points from a week earlier and down from 69% year ago.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. USDA’s 4 percentage point drop in the good to excellent categories in this week’s report reflected the impact of hot and dry weather in the western Corn Belt. While condition ratings are not a perfect predictor of the initial yield forecast, markets will closely eye Monday’s Crop Progress report for clues to what USDA will release in its initial yield forecast on August 12.
Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect USDA on Monday afternoon to report 466 million bushels of corn were crushed for ethanol in June, which would be up 4.4 percent from last year.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said relief from heat and dryness is expected in the northwestern U.S. Corn Belt late this week, leading to some crop improvement. European crops will also continue to be stressed this week, with low soil moisture in many areas, but nowhere more serious than in France and the southern United Kingdom. Hotter weather later this week into next week coupled with ongoing limited rain will add to production concerns that are already present. China and the Former Soviet Union crops will remain in good condition, although there will be a few pockets of concern. Xinjiang, China is expected to become excessively hot in early August. Areas from Sichuan to western Henan, China need rain. India’s recent rainfall and that expected should be supportive of late summer crop planting, emergence and early growth during the next ten days to two weeks. Too much rain may induce some local flooding from Odisha to eastern Maharashtra. Mexico’s monsoon is also expected to bring some beneficial moisture to corn and sorghum production in the west, but below normal rainfall is likely in the east. Safrinha corn harvesting in center west Brazil should advance well over the next week to 10 days.
90-day outlook: The Pro Farmer crop tour in late August is coming into trader focus. It’s so far looking like a good corn U.S. corn crop will be harvested this fall. However, domestic and export demand for corn remain solid. With August arguably the most important growing month for the U.S. soybean crop and with geopolitics moving the wheat markets, don’t be surprised if the corn futures market becomes a follower of soybeans and/or wheat markets for the next several weeks.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 1/4 cents to $11.87 1/2, near mid-range, hit a three-week low and for the week down 66 cents. September soybean meal lost $2.60 to $314.90, near mid-range, hit a three-week low and for the week down $15.90. September bean oil fell 96 points to 67.26 cents, nearer the daily low, hit a four-week low and for the week down 621 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures markets bulls faded badly this week, to suggest the summertime highs will not be revisited in the near term. It’s very likely going to take a U.S. soybean crop weather market scare in August to reignite bullish enthusiasm in beans and meal. The other potentially bullish factor for the complex would be any surge in China demand for U.S. soybeans. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 252,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations during 2026-27.
China’s Sinograin sold about half of the 504,000 MT of imported soybeans on offer at the auction, which was the biggest since January, according to Reuters who cited traders familiar with the matter. “Prices are not particularly attractive. Some traders maintain the auctions are to make room for the arrival for new U.S. soybean cargoes.
Soybean traders on Monday afternoon will get the weekly USDA crop progress reports and the USDA monthly crushing report. The crush data is expected to show soybeans crushed in June around 10% higher than at the same time last year.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said two more weeks of mostly favorable conditions for crops will occur across much of the Midwest, leaving yield potentials high with a close watch warranted on rain advertised for next week in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt as parts of this region that missed out on significant rain Thursday and today will need rain soon. Moderate to heavy rain into Saturday from central Minnesota to north-central through eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and central and northern Illinois to Michigan and northwestern Ohio will induce notable increases in soil moisture resulting in favorable soil conditions beyond the middle of the month. Most of the remainder of the Midwest outside of some western areas will receive at least some rain that will be timely and will buy crop more time before stress would increase due to a lack of soil moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur Monday into Aug. 14, but there will be showers that occur most days that will slow drying rates and ensure soil moisture is favorable beyond the middle of the month. Many areas will dry down overall Aug. 7-14 and there will be a growing need for rain during the second half of the month, with much of the region still likely to have adequate soil moisture to support crops into the third week of August with some exceptions.
90-day outlook: Soybeans notched two sizable days of losses this week as flash sales from China remained sparse. The most recent weekly export sales report showed no purchases made by China in the week ending July 23, though the country did step in with 264,000 MT of flash sales this week. Still, total commitments remain below pace needed to hit 25 MMT. Tensions between the U.S. and China over the war in Iran will also heighten the importance of domestic crush use in keeping demand firm. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C. in September.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat lost 24 1/4 cents to $6.39 1/4, nearer the daily low, hit a three-week low and for the week down 38 3/4 cents. September HRW wheat fell 23 1/4 cents to $7.07 1/2, nearer the daily low, hit a nearly three-week low and for the week down 37 3/4 cents. September spring wheat futures fell 21 3/4 cents to $6.89 3/4, near the daily low and for the week down 24 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the speculators. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes set the markets up for follow-through, chart-based selling pressure early next week.
Bulls got no traction today from reports Russia’s main grain lobby group warned on Friday that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and ports shut down grain exports via the Black Sea in the near future. Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters and Producers told Reuters that the shortfall in supply of Russian wheat to other countries this season could reach 30-25 MMT, accounting for around 15% of total global wheat trade. It would not be possible to cover the shortfall by increasing exports from alternative countries, it said.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said good harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays. Spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain and very warm to hot temperatures. Not much rain is likely through the next 10 days and production potential will continue to decrease. Meantime, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields. Northeastern Europe has trended cooler and wetter periodically this season, but sufficient bouts of warmth and drier weather have occurred, as well, keeping most crops in favorable shape. Southeastern Europe drying should help promote winter crop maturation and harvest progress. Rain may be needed in a few spring cereal areas of eastern Europe. Australia’s wheat and barley are well established except in Queensland. Seasonal cooling is pushing some southern crops into semi-dormancy and any new moisture will be of use during the spring.
90-day outlook: Despite today’s losses, the prospect of reduced shipping volumes in Black Sea region will likely keep a floor under futures prices. Global wheat ending stocks could potentially move lower from current levels once again, as most of Western Europe has seen hot and dry weather damage crops there. Persistent scorching temps in the U.S. Northern Plains are also likely to crimp spring wheat production this year. U.S. spring wheat acres impacted by drought hit a high for the growing season at 42 percent as of July 28. The 18 percent increase from last week was the sharpest week-over-week gain since 2018, with most of the impacted acres being in Montana and North Dakota. Harvest is in its earliest stages with 2 percent of the U.S. crop harvested.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 112 points to 81.79 cents, nearer the daily high, closed at a nine-week high close, and for the week up 181 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw chart-based buying as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart remains in place. Today’s technically bullish weekly high close also gives the bulls confidence heading into trading early next week. Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands and the Coastal Bend, while crop stress increases in South Texas.
90-day outlook: Price action in the major U.S. stock indexes has turned wobbly and leaning bearish heading into August. Meantime, retail gasoline prices at the pump are rising and back above $4.00 a gallon, on average. These are headwinds for consumer confidence heading into the Autumn apparel season. Still, better global demand and concerns over the U.S. crop outlook continue to provide fundamental support for cotton futures.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.