Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 1/4 cents to $4.51, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some more profit taking and weak long liquidation after strong early-week gains. Somewhat improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace today did help lift corn up from its session low.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 565,800 MT for 2025/2026 were down 23 percent from the previous week and down 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 401,700 MT were reported for 2026-27.
Traders are looking forward to Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said the U.S. corn crop varies greatly from drought-stressed areas of the far northwestern Corn Belt to excessively wet in some central Midwest locations. The coming week of weather will provide some rain and sunshine while maintaining seasonably warm temperatures. The end result should be mostly good for the corn crop, although there is potential for some heavy rainfall in the lower eastern Midwest. Crop moisture stress may worsen over the weekend and into next week in the northwestern Corn Belt. World Weather Inc. added that “an impressive ridge of high pressure will build through the Rocky Mountain region to the Great Plains and a part of southern Canada’s Prairies over the next few days.” The ridge will suppress rainfall for a week to nearly 10 days and it will induce several days of very warm to hot temperatures. The result will be a notable dry-down period for the northern U.S. Plains and northwestern corn and soybean belt that will stress dryland crops.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.65 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.55 1/2 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.49 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 10 3/4 cents to $11.81 1/2, nearer the daily low. September soybean meal rose $4.70 to $314.40, near the daily high. September soybean oil fell 90 points to 69.48 cents, near the daily low but hit a three-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw some more profit taking from the shorter-term speculators today, but losses were limited by good gains in the meal market. Spreaders appeared to be unwinding long bean oil, short meal trades today.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China and 120,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly sales totaled 54,300 MT for 2025/2026 during the week ended July 2, up 30 percent from the previous week, but down 81 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 408,300 MT were reported for 2026-27.
Traders are looking forward to Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see highly favorable conditions for crop development into at least the middle of next week as there will be a lack of significant heat in much of the region along with moist soils and least some rain in many areas. Heat will return to the eastern Dakotas and portions of western Minnesota this weekend where some areas will see highs in the middle and upper 90s. Warmer weather will occur next week along with a drier weather pattern Saturday into July 23 with the eastern Dakotas and nearby areas warmest. Subsoil moisture should still be adequate in much of the Midwest by the time the fourth week of the month begins outside of the drier areas in the western Corn Belt, where greater rain will be needed soon to ensure stress to summer crops does quickly induce production cuts.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.94 1/4 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at $11.75 and then at $11.60.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $315.00 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $307.90 and then at this week’s low of $303.00.
Bean oil sees bulls working on a fledgling price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 68.33 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 12 cents to $6.19 3/4, nearer the daily high. September HRW gained 9 cents to $6.54 1/4, nearer the daily high. September spring wheat futures gained 8 1/4 cents to $6.39.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw chart-based buying from the shorter-term speculators featured today. There are also growing notions that the European wheat crop will be cut short due to an extreme heat wave in western Europe.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 313,100 metric tons (MT) for 2026/2027 during the week ended July 2.
Argentina’s 2026-27 wheat harvest is projected to reach 20.5 MMT, according to the Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday, raising its previous forecast by 500,000 MT due to an expanded planting area.
Traders are looking forward to Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, a mostly good mix of weather is predicted over the next two weeks for wheat maturation and harvesting. There will be some showers and thunderstorms periodically, though resulting rainfall is unlikely to be great enough to seriously threaten unharvested crops. In the Northern Plains, excessive heat will build across the crop region by this weekend, with highs reaching near 110 degrees Fahrenheit in portions of Montana and South Dakota. Evaporation will be amplified across the crop region, as well as energy usage, and crop and livestock stress. More rainfall will be needed to maintain soil conditions in the western portions of the crop region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.74. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.27 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.64 1/2 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.34 and then at $6.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures closed down 10 points to 80.57 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures paused today, which favors the bullish camp after prices closed limit up on Tuesday. Improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace also favored the cotton market bulls today and limited selling interest in the natural fiber..
USDA this morning reported U.S. export sales of 66,400 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 36 percent from the previous week, but down 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (23,500 RB), India (23,400 RB) and Mexico (10,400 RB). Net cotton sales of 87,000 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for Vietnam (48,700 RB), Turkey (30,800 RB), Japan (2,400 RB) and Indonesia (2,400 RB). Exports of 230,100 RB were up 5 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (85,400 RB), Pakistan (42,800 RB), Turkey (23,900 RB) and Bangladesh (21,200 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said light showers will occur in the Panhandle today before nearly all cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma benefit from at least some rain Friday into next Wednesday, when daily showers and thunderstorms affect the region. Little rain is expected July 16-23 and greater rain will be needed soon to prevent the moisture from the coming rain from being lost to evaporation. Today’s forecast is wetter for south Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend than what has advertised earlier this week and the region will benefit from rain Sunday into Wednesday that will increase soil moisture and allow cotton to develop favorably for a while longer. Topsoil moisture has become short, while subsoil moisture is still supportive of cotton development in most areas and if the coming rain event were to falter stress to cotton would likely increase beyond the middle of the month as the subsoil dries out. South Texas will see the least rain and has the least soil moisture and will need rain again soon.
Traders are looking forward to Friday’s late-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on a near-term price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 81.30 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.30 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.