Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 1/2 cent to $4.19, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today paused ahead of USDA data out Thursday. Another sell off in the stock market today did crimp trader and investor risk appetite, which limited buying interest in corn. Very good overall corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present remains a bearish element in the corn futures market.
Corn traders are looking forward to a big USDA data dump on Thursday, including the weekly export sales report and the monthly supply and demand report. The export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 900,000 to 1.8 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The monthly WASDE report is not expected to show any significant changes in the USDA balance sheet for corn.
U.S. ethanol production for the week ending June 5 was unchanged from the prior week at 1.108 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks declined 154,000 barrels to 24.452 million barrels.
World Weather Inc. today said “very high yield potentials for summer crops will remain in place through the next two weeks” as regular rain is expected in much of the Midwest, and soil moisture will be left favorable in nearly all areas. No significant heat is expected through the next week and most areas will be colder than normal this weekend into early next week. As long as timely rain falls as advertised June 18-21, most areas will be left with adequate soil moisture to support summer crop development through the end of the month and likely longer, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. A bear flag pattern may now be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 3/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $4.18 1/4 and then at $4.15.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is still oversold from a short-term technical perspective. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 1/2 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.18 1/4 and then at $4.15.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 9 1/4 cents to $11.23, nearer the daily high. July soybean meal rose $0.80 to $301.90, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil rose 42 points to 75.33 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw short covering and perceived bargain buying today, while bean oil was supported by a rally in crude oil prices today. Weather in the Midwest still leans firmly price-bearish for the soy complex at present.
Soybean complex traders are looking forward to a big USDA data day Thursday, including the weekly export sales report and the monthly supply and demand report. The export sales report is expected to show U.S. bean sales 250,000 to 700,000 MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The monthly WASDE report is not expected to show any significant changes in the USDA balance sheet for soybeans.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to see frequent showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks, maintaining a good outlook for summer crops. Cooling this weekend and next week in the Midwest and Plains may slow crop development and drying rates for a little while. Any late season-planting in the U.S. may be slowed by rain this week and a close watch on fieldwork and rainfall may be warranted.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily chart. However, the market is short-term oversold and overdue for a corrective bounce. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.29 3/4 and then at $11.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.10 1/4 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $309.20 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 78.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.86 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.87 1/2, nearer the daily low. July HRW lost 1/4 cent to $6.30 1/2, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures gained 1/4 cent to $6.43 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some more tepid short covering in bear markets. A sell off in the stock market today limited the upside in wheat. Prices remain in downtrends on the daily bar charts.
Wheat traders are looking forward to a big USDA data release day Thursday, including the weekly export sales report and the monthly supply and demand report. The export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 100,000 to 600,000 MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The monthly WASDE report for June may show a modest decline in U.S. winter wheat production.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, alternating periods of rain and sunshine will impact the region during the next 10 days to two weeks. Some central and eastern parts of the production region may get some heavy rain and the frequency of precipitation will be great enough to raise some concern over grain quality. Some drier weather may be needed soon. Greater rainfall impacted wheat areas a little late in the growing season and may not have had as great an impact on yields as some producers would have liked. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun, alongside generally cooler biased temperatures this week, will aid in maintaining soil conditions and supporting crop development across the crop region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.00 1/4 and then at $6.10 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.74 3/4 and then at $5.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.45 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.25 and then at last week’s low of $6.14 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures lost 16 points to 71.10 cents, near the daily low and hit a nine-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw mild technical selling pressure today. July cotton prices remain in a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. A sell off in the U.S. stock market today limited buying interest in cotton, but a rally in crude oil prices limited the downside, too.
Cotton traders are looking forward to a big USDA data dump on Thursday, including the weekly export sales report and the monthly supply and demand report. The WASDE report is expected to show no significant changes to the supply and demand balance sheet for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. southern Plains, beneficial, but mostly light, rain fell on the northern Panhandle Tuesday while other areas were mostly dry. Rainfall totals were up to 0.48 inch with some totals suspected to be near 1.0 inch. Recent and additional rain into Tuesday will leave most dryland areas with enough soil moisture to support germination and development of cotton, but warm to hot temperatures through Sunday will evaporate the moisture quickly leaving much of the region in need of follow-up rain soon. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see regular rounds of showers during the next two weeks slowing drying rates and keeping soil moisture favorable in much of the region.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 73.86 cents and then at 75.00. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.