Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1/2 cent to $4.97 1/4, nearer the session low and closed at a six-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a pause and some chart consolidation today. The U.S. dollar index rallied to a 1.5-year high again today, which limited the upside in corn futures.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 129,540 MT to Mexico during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.368 MMT during the week ended Oct. 1, down 213,314 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ range of expectations from 1.25 to 1.5 MMT.
AgRural reported first corn plantings were 38% complete in Brazil’s center-south region, up four percentage points on the week and 2 points behind year-ago at this time.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The corn crop condition is expected at 57% good to excellent, the same as last week. Traders expected 25% of the corn crop to have been harvested as of Sunday, compared to 18% complete last week at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the next two weeks will be dry across the Midwest and harvesting of corn will occur rapidly in most areas, with some additional drying time needed before aggressive fieldwork occurs in the wetter areas from northeastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into southern Michigan. One round of rain is expected with that event occurring Oct. 12-15, when the rain should not be heavy enough to cause lasting delays to fieldwork. Moisture will be beneficial in many winter wheat areas and especially southeastern Missouri to Kentucky, where soil moisture is still low.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart to better suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.92. First resistance is seen at $5.05 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.95 and then at $4.92.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $12.80 3/4, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal lost $0.40 to $347.10, near mid-range and hit a four-week low. December soybean oil gained 73 points to 69.35 cents, near mid-range and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures got some buying support today as USDA reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 104,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during 2026-27. Gains were somewhat limited today by a jump in the U.S. dollar index to a 1.5-year high today.
The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.138 MMT during the week ended Oct. 1, down 17,657 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the low-end of the pre-report range of estimates from 1.0 to 1.44 MMT.
Brazilian farmers had planted 7.3% of the expected 2026-27 soybean crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The soybean crop condition is expected at 58% good to excellent, the same as last week. Traders expected 27% of the bean crop to have been harvested as of Sunday, compared to 17% complete last week at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said a big change toward drier weather is forthcoming this week and possibly into the coming weekend in the U.S. Midwest, Delta and Great Plains. The new environment will be ideal for maturing crops in a better environment and promoting better harvest conditions for some areas. Meantime, rain coming to Brazil in the next 10 days will eventually support more aggressive planting and emergence in center-west, although southern Brazil is likely to be a little too wet at times delaying fieldwork for a while and possibly raising the potential for replanting. Center-west planting and establishment conditions should improve as rain falls more periodically.
Technical analysis: November soybeans see a fledgling downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s high of $13.22 1/2. First support is seen last week’s low of $12.73 1/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal has seen a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at Friday’s high of $353.10 and then at $357.60. First support is seen today’s low of $344.20 and then at $340.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.77 cents and then at 68.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 9 1/4 cents to $6.92 1/4, nearer the daily high. December HRW gained 7 cents to $7.42 1/4, near mid-range. December spring wheat futures rose 10 1/2 cents to $7.08 1/2, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw short-covering bounces today. Buying support came in part due to massive Russian airstrikes targeting industrial and port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odessa region, Reuters reported. Russia’s September grain exports are estimated at 2.8 MMT, according to SovEcon, up from 2.4 MMT in August. Somewhat limiting buying interest in wheat futures, the U.S. dollar index rallied to a 1.5-year high today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 302,356 MT during the week ended Oct. 1, down 34,691 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 200,000 to 300,000 MT.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, with traders expecting 37% of the U.S. winter wheat crop planted as of Sunday, compared to 27% last week at the same time.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment will improve greatly in the next 10 days due to recent rain and the anticipated sunnier and warm-biased weather that is forthcoming. Meantime, western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture, but improvements are likely in the next week except in northwestern France and southern parts of the U.K. where rain will be quite limited. Eastern Europe will be drier biased for a while favoring winter crop planting, but greater rain will soon be needed to support the best possible emergence and establishment. The Black Sea region is also expecting a generally dry biased pattern for a while. Rain will soon be needed in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Argentina’s wheat has benefited from recent rain and that which is expected later this workweek. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably; however, rainy weather in the next ten days will delay harvesting, slow maturation and may reduce grain quality across Parana and a few neighboring areas.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.03 and then at $7.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.70 3/4 and then at $6.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.51 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $7.62 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.29 and then at $7.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 198 points to 80.86 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw short covering and perceived bargain buying today. Gains in soybeans and wheat, as well as a rally in the U.S. stock indexes, supported better buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will benefit from drier weather through much of the next two weeks that will allow some cotton fibers to be bleached white and for harvesting to accelerate. A few light showers will occur infrequently. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and harvesting in the Blacklands should advance well around some infrequent showers while much of the cotton in the Coastal Bend and South Texas has been harvested with these regions likely to see additional showers into Thursday. Rain may return to a large part of the region Oct. 13-16.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures still see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 81.00 and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.77 cents and then at last week’s low of 77.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.