Corn
Price action: December corn rose 6 cents to $5.33 3/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw fresh technical buying from the shorter-term speculators today. Gains in the soybean and meal futures markets spilled over into some better buying interest in corn futures. Traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA monthly S&D report. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the U.S. average corn yield to fall to 178.1 bu. per acre in Friday’s report. Still, some firms, such as StoneX who pegged yield at 182.9 bushels, see rising crop prospects from the August estimate. Weekly USDA export sales are also out Friday morning.
A Politico report notes that this summer’s European drought and the virtual shutdown of Ukraine’s cheapest export routes is seen creating an opening for U.S. corn exports to the EU. Expana cut its 2026-27 EU corn production forecast to 46.2 MMT, down from 29.1 MMT last month – that would be the smallest volume since 1992, notes Reuters.
Argentina’s corn exports are set to hit a record 10 million metric tons in August and September, Reuters reported, the result of a bumper harvest and strong international demand tied in part to Europe’s crop woes and Ukraine’s export bottlenecks.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the next week and although harvesting will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south rain should be infrequent enough to allow early harvesting to advance well overall. Recent and additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce highly beneficial increases in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in some jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.37 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at this week’s and last week’s low of $5.26 1/2 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 22 3/4 cents to $13.32 1/4, near the daily high and hit a contract and 2.5-year high. December soybean meal rose $5.50 to $356.90, near the daily high. December soybean oil gained 135 points to 71.92 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw fresh speculator and chart-based buying amid fresh demand news from China. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 272,000 MT of soybeans to China and 206,500 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during 2026-27. China has bought around 1 million MT of U.S. soybeans this week, four traders told Reuters, as the world’s top oilseed buyer steps up purchases ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, D.C., later this month. “The purchases take China’s total U.S. soybean buying to nearly half of the 25 million MT the White House said Beijing had committed to annually through 2028, said the report.
Russia has resumed attacks on oilseed processing plants critical to Ukraine’s exports, striking a major facility in the eastern city of Dnipro, owned by Bunge, according to Reuters. The Dnipro plant is among Ukraine’s five largest and can process 1,600 tons of oilseeds per day.
World Weather Inc. today said wetter weather in the western Corn Belt is fixing long term moisture deficits, but delaying crop maturation and harvest progress. A wet bias will remain through next week from Nebraska and Kansas across Iowa and Missouri to Wisconsin and Illinois.
Soy traders are awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. The average analyst estimate in the Bloomberg poll pegged yield at 52.4 bushels per acre, down from 52.7 bushels in August and below the Pro Farmer estimate at 53.3 bushels. Harvested acres are estimated unchanged from August at 85.8 million acres, bringing production to 4.492 billion bushels, 27 million bushels below USDA’s figure a month ago. Weekly USDA export sales are also out Friday morning.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $13.31 1/2 and then at $13.40. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at $12.90.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $357.70 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $350.00 and then at $345.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 73.00 cents and then at 73.82 cents. First support is seen at last today’s low of 69.88 cents and then at week’s low of 68.23 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 12 1/2 cents to $7.41 1/4, near the daily high and hit a two-week low early on. December HRW gained 12 1/2 cents to $8.18 3/4, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 14 1/2 cents to $7.62 1/2, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some fresh technical buying today and were also supported by solid gains in soybeans and a rally in corn futures.
Expana raised its outlook for European Union soft wheat exports this season as reduced Black Sea shipments shifted demand to the bloc. The commodity data firm put EU soft wheat exports in 2026-27 at 29.5 MMT, up from 28.7 MMT projected in August, while lowering its estimate for 2025-26 shipments to 28.5 MMT.
World Weather today said rain is needed in winter wheat production areas in the U.S. Plains, western and southeastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia’s southern Region, but there is plenty of time for this to evolve. There may eventually be need for greater rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. Australia’s wheat and barley is still rated well in the south while that in Queensland and northern New South Wales will likely underperform this year because of El Nino heat and dryness. Some rain will fall in a few U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas during the next two weeks.
Wheat traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly WASDE report but not much is expected to change on the balance sheet for wheat. Weekly USDA export sales are also out Friday morning.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW are in some jeopardy of being negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at this week’s high of $7.63. First support is seen at $7.15 and then at $7.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $8.31 3/4 and then at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. First support is seen at $7.97 1/4 and then at $7.92 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 94 points to 88.22 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more perceived bargain hunting today. Strong gains in crude oil prices also supported cotton futures.
Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, expected to show U.S. cotton production this year at 13.19 million bales, which would be down around half-a-million bales from the last USDA estimate, according to a Bloomberg survey. U.S. exports are seen at 12.14 million bales, down slightly from the last USDA forecast, said the Bloomberg survey. Weekly USDA export sales are also out Friday morning.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see two more rounds of rain during the next two weeks that will benefit irrigated crops while most of the dryland crop has been damaged too greatly by hot and dry weather in recent weeks to benefit from the moisture. Warm to hot temperatures through the next week will quickly evaporate most of the moisture soon after it falls. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also have occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment as there should be enough drying time between showers to dry out cotton fibers.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. A bear flag or bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 93.74 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 84.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 89.00 cents and then at 90.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 86.65 cents and then at this week’s low of 85.56 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.