Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 cents to $5.33 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some buying support from the potential for lingering rains and flooding in central Iowa that could cause some early-harvest delays.
USDA in its weekly export inspections report out this morning said 1.525 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. corn was inspected for export in the week ended Sept. 10, down from 1.675 MMT the previous week and within the 1.25 MMT to 1.775 MMT range found in a Reuters survey of analysts.
The latest weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed managed money trimmed back 5,891 corn futures contracts from their previously record net long in futures and options. That net long remains at a huge 425,171 contracts as of September 8.
Corn traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 56% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which would be unchanged from last week’s reading. The U.S. corn crop is expected to be 9% harvested as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said wetter weather in the western Corn Belt will help fix long-term moisture deficits, but delaying crop maturation and harvest progress. A wet bias will remain through the next 10 days from Nebraska and Kansas across Iowa and Missouri to Wisconsin and Illinois. Meantime, Mexico’s monsoon is expected to bring some beneficial moisture to corn and sorghum production areas in the west, but below normal rainfall is likely in the northeast. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil may lead to earlier-than-usual planting of first-season corn.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.37 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 7 3/4 cents to $13.04 1/4, nearer the daily high. December soybean meal rose $3.40 to $356.20, nearer the daily high and hit a two-year high for the contract. December soybean oil gained 51 points to 70.19 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw corrective bounces and some fresh technical buying as both markets remain in price uptrends. The complex was also somewhat supported by sharply higher crude oil prices today.
USDA this morning reported 674,000 MT of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, up from 465,000 the previous week and above the top end of forecasts.
The latest commitment of traders report from the CFTC showed net speculative longs in soybean futures hit a record 266,031 contracts as of Sept. 8, up 24,848 from the previous week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Sep. 22 and although harvesting will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested. Where crops are ready to be harvested in the south, rain should be infrequent enough to allow harvesting to advance well overall.At least some additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture. Some heavy rain will fall into Wednesday from eastern Nebraska and nearby areas to Wisconsin and central Michigan and some local flooding may result. Drier weather will resume Sep. 23-28 and that will be important where heavy rain falls into Sep. 22.
Soy traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 58% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which is unchanged from last week.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at $13.20 and then at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. First support is seen at $12.90 and then at $12.75.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $359.00 and then at $365.00. First support is seen at $350.00 and then at $345.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 72.23 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 69.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 68.23 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $7.22, near mid-range and hit a three-week low. December HRW lost 6 cents to $7.92 1/2, near mid-range. Spring wheat futures slid 9 1/4 cents to $7.35 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some profit taking and weak long liquidation today. Wheat may be seeing selling pressure from reports President Trump has urged Russia and Ukraine to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, with Trump claiming both sides have agreed on the matter.
USDA this morning said 457,000 MT of U.S. wheat were inspected for export last week, up from 431,000 MT the previous week and within the range of estimates.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, very warm to hot weather will continue into mid-week this week in the southern
Plains but cooling is likely later this week. There may also be some periodic showers in the north through the next 10 days and more infrequently in the south during the latter part of this week into next week. Any rain and cooling will be welcome, but more moisture will be needed to get fields in the best conditions for wheat planting. Summer crop harvest progress will advance around the anticipated rain. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside with fluctuating temperatures. Areas with dry conditions will benefit remaining spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need to see more rainfall before winter wheat planting begins.
Wheat traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which is expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop at 93% harvested as of Sunday. The U.S. winter wheat crop planting is seen at 8% complete.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW are in some jeopardy of being negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at $7.35 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at $7.20 and then at $7.10.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.19 and then at last week’s high of $8.31 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.82 and then at $7.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 151 points to 84.55 cents, near the daily low and hit a four-week low today.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more technical selling today. A weaker U.S. stock market and stronger U.S. dollar index today were bearish outside-market elements for the cotton market.
Cotton traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through most of the next two weeks, with rain events in the Panhandle and northwestern parts of west Tuesday and rain in much of the region Friday into next Monday.Some cotton discoloration is likely to result from each rain event, while developing cotton will benefit from the moisture before drier weather Sep. 22-28 is important in drying out the bolls and allowing cotton fibers to be bleached white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment as there should be enough drying time between showers to dry out cotton fibers.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls are fading fast. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are starting to trend lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 90.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 86.51 cents and then at 87.50 cents. First support is seen at 84.00 cents and then at 83.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.