Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 1/2 cents to $5.27 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw modest profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation today as prices are at the lower boundary of the three-week-old trading range at elevated levels. Weaker wheat and soybean futures prices today also limited buying interest in corn. A rally in the U.S. dollar index today to a nearly three-month high was a bearish outside-market element for the grains again today. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 838,300 MT during the week ended Sept. 17. Net sales were just above the low end of analysts’ range of pre-report estimates from 800,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rainfall in the northern Midwest has disrupted fieldwork and some of the wetter areas will need a few days of drying, especially in the wettest areas from northern Missouri and Iowa into Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. Additional waves of rain are expected through the first half of next week keeping fieldwork sluggish or on hold. This year’s dryness in France, the U.K. and southeastern Europe has cut into summer crop production. Some of that dryness has extended into Russia’s Southern region, as well. Although the focus of attention is now shifting to rapeseed planting and without much improved soil moisture, the planting season could be delayed. Recent rain from Ukraine to the Baltic States should help induce some planting. Mexico’s monsoon is expected to bring some beneficial moisture to corn and sorghum production areas in the west, but below normal rainfall is likely in the northeast. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil led to some earlier than usual planting of first- season corn.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the September low of $5.23 1/4. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1/2 cent to $13.17 1/2, near mid-range. December soybean meal rose $1.80 to $372.40, near mid-range and hit a more-than-two-year high overnight. December soybean oil fell 26 points to 67.55 cents, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market was pressured today by more profit taking and weak long liquidation from the specs as well as a strong U.S. dollar index that hit a two-month high today. A tepid weekly export sales report also limited buying interest in the complex. USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2026-27. USDA reported weekly sales of 582,400 MT during the week ended Sept. 17. Net sales were well below analysts’ pre-report expectations, which ranged from 1.5 MMT to 2.0 MMT.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that he and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to extend the trade truce reached in South Korea last fall for two months, to Jan. 10. “I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don’t know whether we will just roll the current deal,” Bessent said, according to Bloomberg.
World Weather Inc. today said crop areas west of the Mississippi River will see a week of wet weather that will slow fieldwork with some heavy rain from eastern Nebraska and nearby areas into western, central, and southern Iowa and northern Missouri into Saturday. Much of Iowa and some nearby areas already have nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding may result from rain into Saturday and with follow-up rain next week, delays to fieldwork will be extended deeper into October. Much of the region is still expected to see little rain Oct. 4-8 and gradual improvements in conditions for fieldwork will occur in the wetter areas while a steady increase in fieldwork occurs elsewhere. Areas east of the Mississippi River will see quickly improving conditions for fieldwork during the next several days as little rain is expected into Tuesday before a period of wet weather occurs late Tuesday into Sat., Oct. 3 with today’s forecast wetter for Oct. 2-3 than what was advertised Wednesday. Soil moisture is still short from southern Illinois into Kentucky where rapid harvesting and planting of winter wheat are likely into Tuesday with rain beginning later Tuesday important for winter wheat germination and establishment.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.35 1/4 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s low of $12.92.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $376.90 and then at $380.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $365.90 and then at $360.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.20 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 1 1/2 cents to $7.07, near mid-range and hit a nearly four-week low. December HRW fell 4 3/4 cents to $7.67, near mid-range and closed at a nearly four-week low close. December spring wheat futures fell 8 1/2 cents to $7.20 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling pressure and weak long liquidation today as both SRW and HRW are in price downtrends. The U.S. dollar index today hit a two-month high, which was a bearish outside-market element for the wheat markets. Talk of potential peace in the Black Sea is a negative element for wheat futures. A Russian envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, is set to meet U.S. officials in New York to discuss the war with Ukraine, reports Bloomberg. Dmitriev will sit down with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to receive U.S. proposals on the conflict.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 267,600 MT during the week ended Sept. 17, down 18% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of analysts’ pre-report estimates, which ranged from 350,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said relief to months of hot, dry, weather is coming to the southern Plains late this week through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase soil moisture from the southwestern Plains into Nebraska and temperatures will be mild to warm. Improved winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment conditions are likely as time moves along during the next two weeks. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across portions of the crop region, alongside seasonable to slightly warmer than usual temperatures. Rainfall will inhibit fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $7.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.85. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $7.17 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $7.36. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.85.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen Wednesday’s high of $7.81 3/4 and then at $8.00. First support is seen at $7.50 and then at $7.47 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 42 points to 83.31 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. Gains were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar index today that hit a two-month high.
Cotton traders are closely watching the Trump-Xi summit. Bulls are hoping China may buy more U.S. cotton if trade relations between the two countries improve.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed cotton sales of 230,500 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (69,800 RB, Vietnam (51,200 RB) and Pakistan (44,500 RB). Net sales of 123,000 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Mexico (120,000 RB), Pakistan (2,500 RB), and Japan (500 RB). Exports of 164,700 RB were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (49,000 RB), India (32,100 RB), Pakistan (25,700 RB) and Mexico (8,900 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see additional rain through Friday along with another round of rain Monday into Wednesday that will benefit some irrigated cotton. The rain will come too late to benefit most cotton with the potential for quality declines and boll rot likely outweighing whatever benefits occur. Another round of rain will occur Monday into Wednesday when much of the region receives another 0.40-1.60” of rain and locally more with some bands of heavier rain. Confidence is low for the Monday into Wednesday rain event and some adjustments to timing and rain amounts may be needed in future forecasts. Some cotton discoloration is likely to result from the rain while concerns over boll rot increase with some potential for cotton fibers to be strung out where rain is heaviest. Drier weather advertised for Oct. 1-8 will be important in drying out cotton bolls and bleaching the fibers white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will be dry most often through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment around a few infrequent showers and one round of organized rain Tuesday into Friday of next week.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices still trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 88.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 83.96 and then at 84.50 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 80.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.