Corn
Price action: July corn fell 9 cents to $4.46 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a three-month low. For the week, July corn was down 16 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures ended the week and the month with less than a whimper. Today’s technically bearish weekly and monthly low closes set the corn futures market up for more chart-based selling pressure early next week. This week’s downdraft in crude oil prices cast a pall over most of the raw commodity futures market sector.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn sales of 1.015 MMT during the week ended May 21, down 52% from the previous week and 30% from the four-week average. Net sales of 618,600 MT were reported for 2026-27. Net sales for 2025-26 were within the expected pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 2.0 MMT, while new-crop sales topped pre-report expectations, which ranged from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Next week’s reports will likely show most of the U.S. corn crop has been planted.
30-day outlook: Weather in the Corn Belt leans overall price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said net drying is expected in a part of the U.S. Midwest over the coming 10 days and temperatures will be seasonably warm. Most of the change will be welcome but there are parts of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana and southwestern Michigan that need a moisture boost already and may become too dry over time. Recent rain in southeastern South Dakota, Nebraska and neighboring states has brought some relief from dryness, though more rain is needed. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil have been trending drier recently. Northern Safrinha crop areas are dry and crops are filling, maturing and beginning to be harvested. The late-June USDA planted acres updates will be a highlight for the month.
90-day outlook: Don’t be surprised to see some degree of a weather-market scare in pop up rapidly in corn in the coming couple months. More years than not, one occurs. They develop quickly and can then fizzle out just as fast. This week’s downdraft in corn futures prices could make for a stronger weather-market rally, if one occurs this growing season.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 7 3/4 cents to $11.86 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 9 3/4 cents. July soybean meal lost $4.30 to $329.80, near the daily low and for the week down $2.10. July bean oil gained 102 points to 77.72 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a contract high. For the week, July bean oil was up 374 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal markets were caught in the downdraft in much of the raw commodity futures sector today, led by a sell off in WTI crude oil futures that saw prices drop below $87 at one point. The technically bearish weekly low closes in July beans and meal set those markets up for follow-through selling pressure from the chart-based specs early next week. Bean oil continues to be supported by a global move toward more biofuels.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 192,000 MT to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26 and 132,000 MT is for delivery during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean sales of 299,900 MT for the week ended May 21, down 15% from the previous week but up 41% from the four-week average. Net sales of 137,700 MT were reported for 2026-27. Net sales for 2025-26 were within the pre-report range of 150,000 to 400,000 MT, while new crop sales were also within the range of expectations of 0 to 300,000 MT.
The U.S. soybean crush in April likely slowed to 6.441 million short tons, or 214.7 million bushels, as the daily processing pace likely dipped to the lowest point in seven months, analysts said in a Reuters survey ahead of the monthly USDA crush report due out Monday.
Monday’s weekly USDA crop progress data will be closely scrutinized by soybean complex traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. Midwest regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the next two weeks, with rain infrequent enough in most areas to allow planting to advance and soon be completed in most areas. Central into eastern areas will see mostly dry weather and favorable conditions for fieldwork into Wednesday. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for late next week and additional showers June 6-12 from eastern Iowa into central and northern Illinois and Wisconsin, where the topsoil has recently firmed up and mostly dry conditions are expected into Wednesday. Soil moisture in place in much of the Midwest and rain advertised during the next two weeks should favorably support crop development deep into June
90-day outlook: Our economist Lane Akre did a study that shows there have been 55 summer soybean market rallies over the last 46 years, with 22 of those beginning in the first week of June. Looking at only the first rally of summer, the average starting date was June 24 and concluded on July 21, averaging about 26 days. Rallies typically last between three and four weeks. Some years, however, see one long rally, such as the 2012 rally which lasted over three months and rose 41%, while some years see multiple shorter rallies, like 2020, which saw three rallies for 3%, 5% and 20%, amid volatile trade.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 13 1/2 cents to $6.10 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. For the week, July SRW was down 35 3/4 cents. July HRW wheat lost 15 1/2 cents to $6.49 3/4, near the daily low, hit a five-week low and for the week down 32 1/4 cents. September spring wheat futures fell 13 1/2 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week down 21 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling featured today, prompted mostly by this week’s sell off in the WTI crude oil futures market. The technically bearish weekly and monthly low closes today in July SRW and HRW set the stage for still more technical selling early next week.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 807,300 MT for 2025-26, a marketing-year low, were down noticeably from the previous week and from the four-week average. This morning’s export sales report saw the largest all wheat cancellations on record for a single week going back to 1990, though this was partially offset by strong new-crop sales. Net sales of 1.058 MMT were reported for 2026-27. Net old-crop sales were well below the pre-report range of 0 to 200,000 MT, while new-crop sales were well above expectations running from 100,000 to 300,000 MT.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring in portions of the region recently, with central areas wettest. That has improved soil moisture for summer crops and may be aiding wheat yields and quality in some locations. Additional rain is expected in portions of hard red winter wheat country during the next 10 days and sufficient moisture will occur to perpetuate the trends of this week in central and eastern parts of the production region. There is need for greater rain in the west. In the Northern Plains, beneficial rainfall is still expected in the next seven days in Montana. Additional rain will be needed. However, what rain does fall should provide a good and much-needed increase in topsoil moisture. Conditions farther to the east should involve a mostly favorable mix of rain and sunshine, though some of the rain may be a little lighter than preferred.
90-day outlook: U.S. wheat harvest is rapidly approaching as maturation remains ahead of average pace. Heavy rains recently in the eastern U.S. have raised concern of potential development of fungal diseases which could limit yield gains from the bolstered soil moisture levels. USDA began taking its monthly samples for objective yield this week, with the survey now expanding to more northern growing regions. If lower yields are confirmed in more states, that should offer some longer-term support to HRW.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 62 points to 76.15 cents, nearer the session low and for the week down 127 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today was also caught in the downdraft in most raw commodity futures prices amid this week’s sell off in the crude oil markets. Today’s technically bearish weekly and monthly low close in July cotton suggests more chart-based selling pressure early next week.
The cotton futures market sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart, which also suggests more selling pressure in the near term. Cotton traders will also scrutinize next Tuesday’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 153,600 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up 17 percent from the previous week and up 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (48,800 RB), Pakistan (41,300 RB) and China (24,900 RB). Net sales of 112,000 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Pakistan (68,300 RB), Mexico (26,100 RB) and South Korea (8,800 RB). Exports of 317,700 RB were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (101,600 RB), Pakistan (70,900 RB), Turkey (36,500 RB) and China (17,900 RB).
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see some mostly light showers into Monday and planting should increase as much of the region dries down before another round of more significant showers and thunderstorms occur Tuesday into Saturday, June 6 before June 7-12 is dry most often. Recent and additional rain into June 6 will leave much of the region with improvements in soil moisture and conditions for dryland germination, establishment, and development and planting should increase when drier weather returns June 7-12. Many areas will need another round of timely rain in the second half of June. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see little rain into Sunday and fieldwork should increase before showers occur most days Monday into Monday, June 8, slowing fieldwork while maintaining mostly favorable soil moisture.
90-day outlook: Cotton futures bulls have faded badly in recent weeks amid improving field and crop conditions in key U.S. growing areas. Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose to a near three-year high in April, underscoring potential demand destruction for cotton. If crude oil prices continue to decline, such would be another bearish element for cotton futures.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.