Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.47 3/4, near the daily low, closed at a four-month low close and for the week down 8 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market had a technically bearish weekly and monthly low close today. And every Friday in October has seen a bearish weekly low close in December corn. A big sell off in the U.S. stock market late this week likely squelched the corn bulls. If the stock indexes continue to deteriorate next week, corn bulls may also stay on the sidelines. Commercial hedge selling pressure will also likely be active next week as the U.S. corn harvest is on the downhill side.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said corn harvesting in the Midwest should advance well overall during the next two weeks around rain into Sunday that will favor southwestern into central areas before a significant precipitation event Sunday night into Thursday temporarily stalls farming activity. A close watch will be made on rain next week and although some moderate to heavy rain is likely, the soil should be dry enough to absorb much of the precipitation without becoming excessively muddy. Drier weather Nov. 6-13 will be important in allowing fieldwork to resume.
90-day outlook: Attention of the grain markets will turn from U.S. supplies to export demand in the coming months. Demand for U.S. corn abroad has been decent in recent weeks. The South American growing season and weather patterns there will also move closer to the front burner of the corn futures market for the next few months. Also, natural gas prices saw a spike amid rising expectations that another round of U.S. strikes against Iran is coming soon. Given natural gas’s key role in fertilizer production, uncertainty around input costs is likely to linger into the 2027 growing season.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 1/2 cent to $12.34 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 34 1/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $4.70 to $324.60, nearer the daily low, hit a two-month low and for the week down $21.50. December bean oil rose 26 points to 65.90 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week down 93 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean futures market today saw some modest short covering early on but gains faded by the close, limited by the slumping meal futures market that today saw, along with January beans, a technically bearish weekly and monthly low close, which suggests still more downside for those markets. U.S. soybean harvesting continues strong, which is seeing better commercial hedge selling that is also capping the upside for the soy complex futures, and will likely continue to do so next week. However, harvest in some parts of the U.S. has wrapped up for the season, to see cash basis improve. USDA will release its oilseed crushings report on Monday, showing crush for the month of September.
Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans has picked up recently. USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales totaling 297,150 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27. U.S. soybean meal exports hit a record 18.6 million tons in 2025-26 and are projected to hit 20.6 MT in 2026-27 – growth of around 66% since 2020 as the nation’s share of global meal trade has risen from 18% to a projected 23% over the same period, according to North Dakota State University’s monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor. The report attributes the export boom to growing domestic crush capacity tied to renewable diesel demand.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather in much of the U.S. recently has been a boon for field progress but a more active weather pattern is coming to the Midwest that will delay fieldwork over the coming week to 10 days. Western crop areas will get rain this weekend while the east will see it next week. Meantime, concern remains over the condition of center-west Brazil, where rainfall may offer some short-term benefit to crops. However, very low subsoil moisture will remain a serious concern, especially when drier and warmer-than-usual weather occurs in weeks two and three of the forecast. Southern Brazil and Paraguay remain wet and would benefit from some drying but that is unlikely outside of Rio Grande do Sul, leaving the flood potential relatively high. Northeastern Brazil still needs greater rain. Argentina will see a good mix of weather to support soybean planting in November.
90-day outlook: Weather and growing conditions in Brazil and Argentina soybean regions will move closer to the front burner in the coming months, as trader focus shifts from U.S. supplies to South American supplies, as well as export demand for U.S. beans.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1/4 cent to $6.03 1/2, near mid-range and for the week down 21 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat lost a penny to $6.44 1/4, near mid-range and for the week down 20 1/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 3/4 of a cent to $6.23 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 17 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw some tepid short covering early on today but prices faded to end the trading week and month. Still, technical selling pressure may resume early next week as prices continue to trend down on the daily bar charts. Any fresh news on the proposed Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks among Presidents Trump, Putin and Xi will be market-sensitive for wheat futures. Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region early Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported, ending a two-week pause. The report noted Ukrainian forces last hit an oil refinery on Oct. 15 and hadn’t struck energy infrastructure of any kind since Oct. 20 amid repeated demands by President Donald Trump and other officials to stop hitting refineries.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said drought remains in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and a part of the northwestern and west-central Great Plains would benefit from additional moisture to induce the best establishment. Most of the Midwest crops are rated favorably and rain coming to the lower eastern Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin will bring some dryness relief that will favor wheat establishment. Meantime, some beneficial rain fell in western Europe recently and that improved winter crop establishment. The coming week’s weather will be drier once again. Eastern Europe still has some dryness from Slovakia through Hungary, Serbia and parts of Romania and moisture is needed to induce the best winter crop establishment, but the region will be dry biased for a while. Recent rain in Ukraine and Moldova was ideal in bolstering soil moisture for better winter crop establishment. Russia’s southern region still needs significant rain to get crops as well established ahead of dormancy as possible. Some showers are likely this weekend and especially next week in all of these areas. India’s wheat planting is under way and will continue over the next few weeks. Some beneficial moisture has fallen in a part of the production region recently, but there is need for more rain over a broader area to ensure the best emergence and establishment in unirrigated fields. Southern Australia is expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall and some additional moisture would be welcome in a few immature crop areas in the south. Argentina’s wheat benefited from recent rain and more may evolve in the next couple of weeks. Southern Brazil wheat is vulnerable to a quality decline, although Rio Grande do Sul weather has improved recently.
90-day outlook: Focus will remain in the amount of grain being shipped out of the Black Sea region and any progress on a ceasefire between warring Russia and Ukraine. China has recently indicated interest in purchasing U.S. wheat for the first time since the Trump-Xi summit, where they had expressed interest in further ag purchases. Weekly USDA export sales Thursday morning showed a marketing year high of 849,000 MT of net sales across all wheat classes.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 67 points to 77.83 cents, near the daily low and for the week down 237 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw a technically bearish weekly low close today and came close to a monthly low close. Bears have some technical momentum on their side following the early-week downside “breakout” from a sideways trading range. Cotton traders will again be influenced by price action in the grain futures markets next week.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see three more rounds of rain during the next two weeks, slowing harvesting while increasing quality declines with some production cuts possible due to boll rot and stringing out of cotton. Much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will receive 0.25-1.25” of rain and locally more today with some pockets of lighter rain and some bands of heavier rain and southwestern Oklahoma seeing the least rain. Scattered and light showers will bring rain to parts of the region Saturday. Much of the Panhandle will receive up to 0.60” of rain and locally more Sunday into Monday with light showers extending into northern parts of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Today’s forecast is wetter for Nov. 6-8 than what was advertised earlier this week and the period will be closely monitored with nearly widespread rain likely before an impact period of drier weather and improving conditions for harvesting occurs Nov. 9-13. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the resulting rain will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture.
30-day outlook: Traders will be watching for signs of export demand and weather impacts on remaining crop quality. The U.S. cotton harvest, as well as higher USDA production and stock forecasts, are likely to continue to limit the upside in cotton futures in the coming weeks. However, a recently weaker U.S. dollar index, higher crude oil prices (boosting polyester costs), residual weather concerns and mixed export demand may provide support.
90-day outlook: The approaching holiday season and better demand for apparel may offer some better support to cotton futures. However, the downdraft in the U.S. stock market this week did spook the cotton bulls, too. Sustained selling pressure in the stock market into the end of the year would very likely dent holiday apparel demand. Sales of U.S. cotton abroad also need to continue to improve in order for cotton futures prices to sustain an uptrend.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.