Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 1/4 cents to $4.68 1/2, near the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more profit-taking and weak long liquidation today. The bulls are losing steam as a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 362,900 MT for 2025/2026 were up 9 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 2026-27 totaled 1.062 MMT. Old-crop sales were near the low end of the pre-report range of estimates, while new-crop sales topped analysts’ expected range from 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today also said relief from heat and dryness is expected in the northwestern U.S. Corn Belt late this week, leading to some crop improvement. Cooling in the Midwest next week will be of interest in the heart of the Midwest.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.75 1/2 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at $4.65 and then at $4.60.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 4 cents to $11.88 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. September soybean meal lost $0.40 to $317.50, near mid-range. September soybean oil fell 44 points to 68.22 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets paused today as traders caught their breath amid this week’s price downdrafts. Bean oil saw continued technical selling pressure and weak long liquidation today. Weather forecasts for the far western Corn Belt are calling for better rain chances the next couple weeks.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2026-27. The agency this morning also reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 302,300 MT during the week ended July 23 for 2025/2026, which were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Net new-crop sales totaled 1.333 MMT. Net old- and new-crop sales topped analysts’ pre-report range of estimates.
Grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland said today it will invest upgrades at four U.S. oilseed crushing facilities to expand North American processing capacity, as strong demand for renewable fuels drives growth in vegetable oil markets. The company expects projects in Frankfort, Indiana; Deerfield, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska and Spiritwood, North Dakota to be completed between mid-2028 and early 2029.
World Weather Inc. today said two more weeks of mostly favorable conditions for crops will occur across much of the Midwest, leaving yield potential quite high with a close watch warranted on a timely rain event occurring today into Saturday in the driest areas from eastern Nebraska and the eastern Dakotas into western Iowa. Moderate to heavy rain and seasonable temperatures into Saturday from eastern South Dakota and nearby areas to southern Wisconsin and central and northern Illinois will induce notable improvements in crop and soil conditions in the drier areas while bolstering soil moisture elsewhere. Much of the remainder of the Midwest will receive at least some rain that will be timely and will buy crop more time before stress would increase due to a lack of soil moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur Monday into Aug. 13 and the showers that occur most days will slow drying rates, but much of the Midwest will dry down overall. There will be a growing need for rain towards the middle of the month with much of the region still likely to have adequate soil moisture to support crops deep into the second week of August with some exceptions.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend on the daily chart for November beans has been soundly negated. A bearish broadening pattern has also formed on the daily chart, with both developments suggesting a near-term market top is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.72 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.15 and then at $12.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.84 1/4 and then at $11.72 3/4.
Soybean meal has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $322.40 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $315.00 and then at $312.50.
Bean oil has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart soundly negated this week. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 71.11 cents and then at this week’s high of 72.87 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 2 3/4 cents to $6.63 1/2, nearer the daily low. September HRW rose 5 1/4 cents to $7.30 3/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures rose 6 1/2 cents to $7.11 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest bounces in prices today on reports the Black Sea region is virtually closed to grain shipping. A Ukrainian drone attack has inflicted “significant damage” on a major grain export terminal at Russia’s Taman port on the Kerch Strait, according to an agricultural market source, cited by Reuters. A solidly lower U.S. dollar index today also aided the wheat market bulls.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 285,200 MT during the week ended July 23 for 2026/2027, which were down 2 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report estimates, which ranged from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
French wheat growers said today the country’s soft wheat yield was expected to fall 7.0 MT per hectare, which is down 3% from the five-year average.
World weather today said good harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays. Spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain and very warm to hot temperatures. Not much rain is likely through the next 10 days and production potential will continue to decrease for some of the driest areas, although some short-term cooling will be possible this weekend and next week. Too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next ten days. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s southern region and parts of Ukraine. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market still bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Bulls need to step up and show better power soon, to keep their advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart for SRW has been negated. Also, bearish broadening patterns have formed on the daily bar charts for September SRW and HRW futures. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.30. First resistance is seen at $6.80 and then at today’s high of $6.86 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.50 1/2 and then at $6.40.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at today’s high of $7.55 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.22 1/2 and then at last week’s low of $7.17 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 114 points to 80.67 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw a rebound from Wednesday’s losses on technical buying amid a price uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. A sharply lower U.S. dollar index today also aided the cotton market bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands and the Coastal Bend, while crop stress increases from south Texas into the southern Blacklands.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales of 29,700 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--a marketing-year low--were down 42 percent from the previous week and down 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (14,200 RB), Pakistan (5,300 RB), India (3,400 RB) and China (3,200 RB). Exports of 233,800 RB were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (78,600 RB), Pakistan (49,400 RB) and Indonesia (18,000 RB).
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 81.40 cents and then at last week’s high of 82.05 cents. First support is seen at 80.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 79.20 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time