Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3 1/2 cents to $4.67 1/2, near the daily high and for the week up 6 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market posted a nice bounce from early lows today, as the bulls stepped in to buy the dip. Prices are still trending up on the daily chart, which should at least limit the downside early next week.
The condition of France’s grain maize crop deteriorated again last week, FranceAgriMer said today, as exceptionally dry and hot weather continues to bite in the European Union’s largest grain producer. Ratings showed that 41% of the maize crop was in good or excellent condition by July 13, down from 47% a week earlier and 72% a year ago. Crop development was running one week ahead of average.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said despite some heat in the west into early next week and net drying in much of Midwest during the next two weeks, moist soils in place and a lack of significant heat in most areas through at least the next week will allow corn pollination to occur favorably in much of the region, leaving production potential high. Exceptions will occur in and near eastern South Dakota into Monday, where highs will reach the middle and upper 90s with some lower 100s with similar conditions extending into the southwestern Corn Belt Monday. Crops in these areas will see rising levels of stress and where corn is pollinating some declines in yields are likely due to the heat, with the greatest stress in parts of eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota where soil moisture is short. Rain in much of the eastern and parts of the central Corn Belt today into Tuesday will provide a timely boost in topsoil moisture and will support pollinating corn. Showers next Wednesday into July 31 are not likely to bring enough rain to prevent much of the Midwest from drying down overall, while subsoil moisture in place should continue to support the needs of most crops outside of the drier areas mentioned above. By early August a larger part of the Midwest will be in need of rain to maintain the best possible yield potential.
90-day outlook: The Pro Farmer crop tour in late August will be coming into trader focus as the month of July ends. Corn futures were surprisingly not the price leader for the grains complex in a week where the pollination window is in full swing for the Midwest. With pollination issues largely localized at this time, it’s looking like a good corn U.S. corn crop will be harvested this fall. U.S. crop conditions remain remarkably steady overall, with USDA rating the crop 68% good to excellent as of last Sunday. The corn crop in the European Union and other foreign countries however was lowered by USDA last week, resulting in tighter global ending stocks that will be price supportive in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 8 cents to $12.03, nearer the daily high, closed at a two-month high close and for the week 12 1/4 cents. September soybean meal lost $3.40 to $317.10, nearer the low and for the week down a dime. September bean oil rose 222 points to 73.93 cents, nearer the daily high, hit a six-week high and for the week up 301 points. Soybeans and bean oil closed at technically bullish weekly high closes today.
5-day outlook: The soybean and bean oil futures got support today from USDA this morning reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 340,000 MT to China, 256,634 MT to Mexico and 110,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27. Solid gains in crude oil prices today boosted bean oil. Spreaders were also buying bean oil and selling meal today.
Argentina’s soybean processing industry is increasingly relying on imports from Paraguay to keep crushing plants running, as local farmers sell their crop at the slowest pace in years, brokerage ActivTrades said on Thursday, according to Reuters.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt this week, resulting in some concern over yield potentials. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored. Weather models for August will begin to come into clearer focus over the next week, and be a key driver of price action ahead of USDA’s initial survey-based yield forecast on August 12.
90-day outlook: August is arguably the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. Early week trade was supported by continued Chinese interest as well as strength across row crop futures. Flash sales were reported on four consecutive market days with China purchasing just over 1 MMT in total. Traders are wondering how long China will keep up its buying of U.S. beans—especially after President Trump last night accused China of meddling in the 2020 U.S. election. Meantime, NOPA crush reports continue to show demand is red-hot at the domestic level. The organization reported 214 million bushels were crushed in June, surpassing all analyst estimates and rebounding sharply from the May maintenance window.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat gained 8 cents to $6.82 3/4, near the daily high and for the week up 42 1/2 cents. September HRW wheat rose 15 3/4 cents to $7.32 1/4, near the daily high, hit a seven week high and for the week up 56 cents. September spring wheat futures rose 6 1/2 cents to $6.91 3/4, near the daily high and for the week up 39 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw renewed technical buying interest after the pause on Thursday. Bulls have technical momentum heading into trading early next week, following today’s bullish weekly high closes.
An industry group expects the wheat crop in Australia’s largest grain-exporting state to shrink by almost 30% year-on-year, due to hot and dry conditions forecast over the next few months, Bloomberg reported. In its first survey of production for the 2026 crop, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia forecast that the state will harvest 9.5 million tons of wheat. That’s down from 13.3 million tons in 2025.
Russian Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Friday that prospects for this year’s harvest were good, but she acknowledged that there were fuel concerns in all regions. She promised farmers that the state would ensure they received the fuel they needed. Andrey Sizov from the SovEcon Black Sea research consultancy told Reuters: “If there is no military solution to open up the Sea of Azov, and the situation drags on for most of the second half of the year, Russia could fall short of supplying the global market by 5 to 10 million tons of wheat.”
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said improved harvest weather is likely in the central U.S. Plains and Midwest but dryness in the northern Plains may stress some wheat and the region needs to be closely monitored. Not much rain is expected in spring wheat areas for a while. Some crops in southern Canada’s Prairies will also dry down for about a week and then receive some welcome rain. Temperatures will be warm for a while. Too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next 10 days. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields. Northeastern Europe has trended cooler and wetter periodically this season, but sufficient bouts of warmth and drier weather have occurred, as well, keeping most crops in favorable shape.
90-day outlook: The prospect of reduced shipping volumes in the Sea of Azov continues to be the main market driver in winter wheat. U.S. harvest is nearing completion, with the crop expected to be the smallest in 63 years according to the current forecast by USDA. HRW futures now find themselves north of technical support in the form of long-term moving averages. Global ending stocks could potentially move lower from current levels once again, as most of Western Europe is not expected to receive rainfall that would provide much-needed relief in the coming week according to World Weather Inc. For hard red spring wheat, the heat dome that was expected to move out of the U.S. Plains by now has lingered, which may cause deterioration in conditions, though national level ratings remain stable for now. Prospects for the North American spring wheat crop are positive compared to winter wheat, which may temper gains from geopolitical uncertainty.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 67 points to 78.63 cents, near mid-range after hitting a two-week low early on. For the week, Dec. cotton was down 291 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s big losses, to produce a technically bearish weekly low close that sets the table for some more speculator selling interest early next week. Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said daily showers will continue into Sunday in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Southern parts of west Texas will see further improvements in soil and crop conditions, with mild temperatures in place beneficial as well while the remainder of the region does not likely receive enough to significantly increase soil moisture. Outside of some infrequent showers, Monday into July 31 will be dry most often and greater rain will be needed soon to prevent the moisture from recent and expected rain from being lost to evaporation as well as to improve conditions for cotton in the Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a much drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell earlier this week in the Blacklands and the central and northern Coastal Bend. South Texas and the southern Coastal Bend missed much of the significant rain and should see rising levels of crop stress through the period.
90-day outlook: Price action in the major U.S. stock indexes has turned wobbly to slightly bearish recently. Meantime, retail gasoline prices at the pump are creeping back higher. This does not bode well for better consumer confidence in the coming months, which in turn will influence consumer demand for apparel this fall. Weather uncertainties will now be a key driver for cotton futures up until harvest.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.