Corn
Price action: December corn lost 8 3/4 cents to $4.71 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation today. The bulls are losing steam as a price uptrend on the daily chart is now in serious jeopardy. Solid losses in the soy complex futures also spilled over into selling in the corn market.
European crops will continue to be stressed this week with low soil moisture in many areas, but nowhere more serious than in France and the southern United Kingdom, according to World Weather Inc. Hotter weather later this week into next week coupled with ongoing limited rain will add to production concerns.
World Weather Inc. today also said two more weeks of mostly favorable conditions for crops will occur across much of the Midwest, leaving yield potential high with a close watch warranted on a timely rain event occurring Thursday into Saturday in the driest areas from eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota into western Iowa. Much of the remainder of the Midwest will receive at least some rain that will be timely and will buy crop more time before stress would increase due to a lack of soil moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur Monday into Aug. 12 and the showers that occur most days will slow drying rates, but much of the Midwest will dry down overall. There will be a growing need for rain towards the middle of the month, with much of the region still likely to have adequate soil moisture to support crops deep into the second week of August with some exceptions.
Corn traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. corn sales of 500,000 to 1.6 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and faded again today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at this week’s high of $4.85. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 27 1/4 cents to $11.92 3/4, near the daily low and hit a two-week low. September soybean meal lost $3.40 to $317.90, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. September soybean oil fell 148 points to 68.66 cents, near the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market saw more heavy profit-taking and weak long liquidation today. Weather forecasts for the far western Corn Belt are now calling for better rain chances the next couple weeks.
World Weather Inc. today said relief from heat and dryness is expected in the northwestern U.S. Corn and Soybean Belt late this week leading to some crop improvement. Cooling in the Midwest next week will be of interest in the heart of the Midwest, where soybeans may have need for warmer conditions.
Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. bean sales of 700,000 to 1.8 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. A price uptrend on the daily chart for November beans was negated today. A bearish broadening pattern has also formed on the daily chart, to also suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.72 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.85 and then at $11.72 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $320.00 and then at today’s high of $322.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $315.00 and then at $312.50.
Bean oil has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart soundly negated this week. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 71.11 cents and then at this week’s high of 72.87 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW lost 1 3/4 cents to $6.60 3/4, nearer the daily low. September HRW fell 3/4 cent to $7.25 1/2, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $7.05.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw pauses today, with buying interest limited by the solid losses in the corn and soybean complex futures.
The Turkish government will allow milling wheat exports after a year-and-a-half pause. In a statement, the Turkish Grain Board said the export restriction — in place since March 2025 — was lifted after an assessment of production and current stocks deemed food supply to be sufficiently secure. Exports will be carried out in a “controlled and balanced manner” and will be subject to the Board’s assessments of applications, according to Bloomberg.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically in Nebraska, Colorado and parts of Kansas during the next week to 10 days will be good for summer crops. However, a more general soaking rain is needed to improve long term soil moisture after recent hot weather. Some summer crop improvement is expected, but more rain will be needed for dryland crops to ensure the best yields. In the Northern Plains, excessive heat persists across the crop region and yield potentials are still coming down in spring wheat production areas from Montana into the Dakotas due to the heat, poor soil moisture and minimal rain. Upcoming showers and thunderstorms in eastern portions of the crop region will provide some relief to the dry conditions, though more rain is still greatly needed. Excessive heat will rebuild in western portions of the crop region again in the coming days, though cooling will occur early next week, bringing 70s and 80s back to the crop region and alleviating some of the crop stress in the area.
Wheat traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 500,000 MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market still bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Bulls need to step up and show better power soon, to keep their advantage. A price uptrends on the daily bar chart for SRW has been negated. Also, bearish broadening patterns have formed on the daily bar charts for September SRW and HRW futures. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.30. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at this week’s high of $6.82. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.50 1/2 and then at $6.40.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.40 and then at this week’s high of $7.52 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.17 1/2 and then at $7.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 100 points to 79.53 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today was also negative for cotton. Cotton bulls got no traction from the solid rally in crude oil prices today.
World Weather Inc. today said hot to excessively hot, dry and stressful conditions for cotton continued in much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma Tuesday, with the central and eastern Panhandle hottest. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands and the Coastal Bend, while crop stress increases from South Texas into the southern Blacklands.
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 81.30 cents and then at last week’s high of 82.05 cents. First support is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.