Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.43 1/2, near mid-range and hit another contract and three-year high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw buying support early in the session from the chart-based speculators, and also saw buying interest today from a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices. However, some late profit taking from the shorter-term traders pushed prices below unchanged on the day. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said too much heat and dryness in the southwestern U.S. Corn Belt may be cutting into some yields. Soil moisture in the heart of the central and eastern Midwest is still rated well and crops are likely developing favorably. Northwestern Corn Belt areas have remained drier biased, which has likely cut into a little yield and that situation is unlikely to change for at least another week. Late season Safrinha corn harvesting in Brazil should be winding down over the next week to ten days. Argentina’s harvest of summer crops is nearly complete.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.55. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at this week’s low of $5.31 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 7 1/2 cents to $13.10 1/4, nearer the daily low and poked to another contract high and 2.5-year high early on. December soybean meal lost $3.00 to $349.60, near mid-range and hit a two-year high early on. December soybean oil fell 167 points to 70.96 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets for most of the session today paused in their solid price uptrends. However, some late profit taking from the shorter-term traders set in by the close. Sellers remain timid amid continued demand from China. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 202,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year. Indonesia’s palm oil output in 2027 is expected to drop by 2.9% to 56.8 million metric tons due to prolonged dry weather that has disrupted plantation maintenance, an official from the palm oil association GAPKI said on Wednesday.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through next Monday in the northwestern Corn Belt, where some soybeans will benefit from the rain. Much of the remainder of the northern and eastern Midwest will also receive at least some rain. Some soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt will see small increases in yield after the coming rain with the precipitation too late for a major boost in production. The southwestern Corn Belt will be mostly dry into early next week, with little rain extending into south-central areas as well. Warm to hot temperatures from the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt through the next week favors crop maturation and early harvesting, with subsoil moisture adequate to support most late crop development.
Technical analysis: November soybeans are still overbought on a short-term technical basis and due for a corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $13.24 and then at $13.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $13.00 and then at this week’s low of $12.77 1/4.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $365.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $354.40 and then at $358.00. First support is seen at $346.00 and then at this week’s low of $342.50.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at the July high of 73.82 cents and then at 74.55 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 8 1/2 cents to $7.74, nearer the daily low and hit a contract and three-year high early on. December HRW lost 11 cents to $8.34 1/4, nearer the daily low and poked to another contract and three-year high early on. December spring wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $7.82 nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets paused for most of the session today but some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term traders pushed prices lower by the close. Selling interest continues to be limited by the Black Sea supply constraints as Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s export infrastructure. Russia suspended the floating export duty on wheat, barley and corn through the end of 2026 as Ukrainian attacks disrupted shipments through the Black and Azov seas, affecting routes for more than 70% of exports,” said a Bloomberg report overnight. The decision was made “given the need to restructure logistics,” the Economy Ministry said in an emailed statement on Wednesday. Meantime, Russia sees no grounds for the Black Sea grain deal to resume, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told reporters today.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report
World weather today said summer crop stress “has been horrific” in the southern Plains recently, with persistent excessive heat and no rain. “Production cuts are common.” The hot weather was briefly relieved late last week but temperatures became oppressively hot again during the weekend. Limited rain and very warm to hot temperatures will prevail for another 10 days leaving crops and livestock stressed. Wheat planting usually begins in the southwestern Plains in the first days of September and that process may be slowed by the region’s heat and dryness. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside warmer-than-normal temperatures. Days of dry conditions will benefit spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need more rainfall before winter wheat planting begins.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are still firmly in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $7.95 and then at $8.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.64 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $7.55 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $8.58 1/4 and then at $8.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $8.25 and then at this week’s low of $8.16 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 262 points to 88.93 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw routine profit-taking pressure today. The lower-range daily close today hints the bulls may now be exhausted. Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Stress to crops will be eased when some cooling occurs late next week into the following weekend, with some showers possible Sep. 9-11. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through most of the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 87.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 90.00 cents and then at today’s high of 91.55 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 87.56 cents and then at 86.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.