Corn
Price action: December corn closed steady at $4.62, nearer the daily low and for the week down 2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market saw some short covering and position evening for most of the session, to keep prices above unchanged but lost its modest gains late on position evening. Wetter weather forecasts for the Corn Belt the next couple weeks will likely limit buyer interest in corn futures. However, a positive for the grain markets late this week is a slumping U.S. dollar index that today hit a seven-week low.
Corn futures were also supported by USDA today reporting daily U.S. corn sales of 286,097 MT of corn to Mexico. Of the total 29,808 MT for 2026-27 and 256,289 MT for 2027-28.
The French corn crop is expected to decline 35% to 9.0 MMT, its lowest since at least 1980, after heatwave and drought hurt the crops, according to the farm ministry earlier today.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. Traders are also anxious to see what USDA will estimate in its initial yield forecast next Wednesday, August 12.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said milder temperatures and some periodic showers and thunderstorms in the all of the U.S. Midwest in the coming 10 days will be welcome. Crop stress in the northwest has been reduced, although soil moisture deficits will remain and that region will need to be closely monitored for dryness and crop stress later in August when warming returns. Dryness in canola, sunseed and a few other coarse grain and oilseed production areas in southern Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains will be closely monitored for a possible further decline in potential yield. Meantime, European crops will also continue stressed with low soil moisture in many areas, but nowhere more serious than in central and northern France and the southern United Kingdom. Warm to hot weather in central and southern Europe will add heat stress to the dryness issue in many areas from France to Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine and Greece.
90-day outlook: The Pro Farmer crop tour in late August is coming into trader focus. It’s so far looking like a good corn U.S. corn crop will be harvested this fall. Higher oil prices earlier have lifted demand for corn, with use for fuel alcohol in the month of June at 466.7 million bushels, according to USDA, up 4.5% from the same time last year. The ethanol blend rate in U.S. gasoline also hit a record high 11.29% in May as rising oil costs increased biofuels demand.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 1 1/2 cents to $11.76 1/4, near the daily low and for the week down 11 1/4 cents. September soybean meal lost $2.70 to $308.90, near the daily low and hit a four-week low. For the week, September meal was down $6.00. September bean oil rose 50 points to 68.24 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 98 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw early short covering and then lost the mild gains late due to position evening ahead of next week’s USDA monthly supply and demand report on Wednesday, when U.S. production and yields updates will be issued. Meal was pressured today by spreaders buying bean oil and selling meal. It’s very likely going to take a U.S. soybean crop weather market scare in August to reignite bullish enthusiasm in beans and meal. So far, weather forecasts are not indicating such.
Bulls got some traction from USDA this morning reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 238,000 MT to China during 2026-27. Meantime, China’s July soybean imports fell 1.6% from a year earlier to 11.48 MMT, according to data from the General Administration of Customs earlier today. The country’s oilseed import volume was down from a high base from last year’s surge after the buying of Brazilian beans amid the trade war in the U.S. Shipments also declined due to reduced buying expectations of weaker feed demand amid a shrinking sow herd size, according to Reuters.
Palm oil harvest in Southeast Asia’s islands of Borneo and Sumatra are being disrupted as rising prices of fuel and supply shortages force smallholders to cut back on fruit production, threatening yields of the world’s most widely used edible oil, notes Reuters.
Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks and a lack of significant heat through at least the next week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potentials are quite high in much of the Midwest deep into the month of August, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt. A close watch will continue on east-central and southeastern South Dakota and nearby Nebraska into northwestern Iowa as well as eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota where soil moisture is marginal to short and stress to crops will increase until significant rain falls. Recent rain induced some relief from dryness, but the soaking of rain needed to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture has not occurred and is not likely outside of a few pockets where locally heavy rain will fall. Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday will likely bring additional relief from dryness to the region and yield potentials should stabilize or possibly increase overall during the next two weeks.
90-day outlook: Tensions between the U.S. and China over the war in Iran will also heighten the importance of domestic crush use in keeping demand firm. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington, D.C. in September. While short-term factors weighed on soybean complex futures this week, longer-term fundamentals paints a different outlook. Soybeans crushed in June hit 6.53 million tons, up from both month-ago and year-ago levels. Despite the increase in crush, stocks of meal and oil continued to decline, highlighting that demand continues to stay strong. A potentially historic El Nino set up could also impact South America’s growing season in the coming months, resulting in a tighter global balance sheet if realized.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat rose 8 1/2 cents to $6.39 3/4, near mid-range and for the week up 1/2 cent. September HRW wheat gained 14 1/4 cents to $7.14, nearer the daily high and for the week up 6 1/2 cents. September spring wheat futures rose 8 1/2 cents to $6.79 1/2, nearer the daily high and for the week down 10 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today as some major wheat-growing regions of the globe have seen weather problems, while shipping grains out of the Black Sea remains problematic. Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry has warned exports could fall from 64.4 MMT to 29.6 MMT in 2026-27 without regular port operations.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders. Traders also get the monthly USDA supply and demand report next Wednesday, August 12.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Some slowdown in fieldwork is expected due to more frequent rainfall in the coming week to 10 days. No crop quality issues are likely, although drying will become more important over time. U.S. spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain. Cool weather briefly this week will reduce crop stress, but the heat is expected to return later this month. Some rain “may” fall during mid- to late-week next week that could bring a little relief. Too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop harvesting. Dryness this season reduced yields. Southeastern Europe has been drying out recently and that is helping to promote winter crop maturation and harvesting, but some spring crops will need rain soon.
90-day outlook: Impacts of the European heatwave are becoming more evident, with Britain expecting the smallest grain harvest since 1984. The Black Sea conflict continues to help wheat perform well relative to other crops. FESCO, a Russian shipping company, suspended applications for shipments due to the increased risks. Until the waterway is fully re-opened, the world’s largest wheat exporting region is going to face logistical hurdles bringing the crop to market. Spring wheat futures have seen price pressure from the ongoing harvest.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 124 points to 84.40 cents, near the daily high, hit a nearly three-month high and for the week up 261 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw more chart-based buying as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart remains firmly in place. Today’s technically bullish weekly high close also gives the bulls confidence heading into trading early next week. Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders also get the monthly USDA supply and demand report next Wednesday, August 12.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and a few South Texas locations while crop stress increases elsewhere. The next week will be warmer than normal and highs across the region will be in the middle 90s to the lower 100s, with some lower 90s in the Coastal Bend. Hot and dry weather continued in the San Joaquin Valley and most of southern Arizona, where light rain fell on a few central and southern areas while a few small minor cotton areas in the east received enough rain to temporarily boost soil moisture.
90-day outlook: A surprising surge in the U.S. stock market during what typically are the summer doldrums has helped out the cotton futures bulls and puts consumers in a better frame of mind heading into the fall apparel season. However, retail gasoline prices at the pump are back around $4.00 a gallon, on average. That’s a significant headwind for consumer apparel buying and probably supersedes the bullishness of the rallying U.S. stock market.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.