Corn
Price action: July corn closed 2 1/4 cents higher to $4.49 3/4, though still plunged 19 1/4 cents in the fourth consecutive weekly decline.
5-day outlook: Corn futures saw a choppy session of trade, struggling to maintain sharp gains in the overnight session. Traders are looking forward to Monday’s reports from USDA, which will give an update to the old-crop balance sheet and the first monthly look into the balance sheets for 2025-26. A poll of analysts done by Bloomberg shows expectations for old-crop ending stocks to fall 20 million bushels from the April update to 1.445 billion bushels. The largest shift is likely coming from exports as the pace analysis points to a likely beat of the current USDA export forecast. New crop ending stocks are seen as coming in at 2.042 billion bushels. Given how beat down prices have been over the past month, it is hard to imagine a bearish outcome to Monday’s reports. Tariff policies have not changed much over the past month and the 2025-26 balance sheet will represent trade policies that are currently in place, which will be vastly different from what will be in place come September, assuming the bulk of tariffs that are currently paused until July do come into play. July futures are oversold on the daily chart and a push lower Monday would likely be met with corrective buying. The downside is likely limited over the coming week, but nearby futures have ignored the tightening balance sheet and robust demand often over the past month, so anything seems to be possible.
30-day outlook: Weather is quickly becoming the key trade driver aside from tariff headlines as the latter portion of the planting season is already here. Much of the Midwest is expected to be dry over the next couple of weeks. While the spring has been wet over much of the Corn Belt, resurgent dryness could become a concern, but current soil moisture levels should be sufficient for crop development in the near future. There are historically opportunities to take advantage of rising corn prices in the summer as weather premium is built into the market. We will be actively looking for these opportunities and believe they will happen as a lot of risk premium has been taken out of both old-crop and new-crop futures over the course of the past month.
90-day outlook: Trade will continue to dominate headlines over the course of the coming quarter with little concrete deals made thus far. The U.S. and U.K. have apparently come to terms with agriculture, a forefront of the proposed deal, namely ethanol. Agriculture has been mentioned in talks with India and South Korea as well, both of which are top buyers of U.S. commodities. Export demand for corn has remained incredibly robust over the past several weeks, with sales topping expectations this week. Key will be how that continues as Brazil’s safrinha crop hits the world market and U.S. reciprocal tariffs come into play this summer. The old-crop balance sheet continues to tighten and the market has not been respecting old-crop stocks, obviously given the collapsing July-December spread this week, which we wrote about in this week’s bullpen in the Pro Farmer newsletter.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 6 3/4 cents to $10.51 3/4 and for the week, gave up 6 1/4 cents. July meal fell 60 cents to $294.10, down $2.80 on the week. July soyoil fell 12 points to 48.57 cents and lost 86 points week-over-week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans rebounded to end the week but held a range inside recent consolidation as resistance at the 200-day moving average served up solid resistance. However, USDA reported the second straight daily flash sale of 120,000 MT to Pakistan, bringing this week’s total to 345,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year. This week’s sales marked their first soybean purchase in nearly three years. Meanwhile, a meeting between the U.S. and China over the weekend will garner serious attention, with the Trump administration reportedly considering a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports during high-level talks in Geneva this weekend. Overnight trade Sunday is likely to prove quite volatile, though Monday’s Supply and Demand Report may yield increased caution. Pre-report estimates indicate analysts are expecting old-crop ending stocks of 375 million bu., with new-crop ending stocks anticipated to be 362 million bu.
30-day outlook: Soybean plantings continue to advance well in the U.S., with 30% planted as of May 4, which was seven points ahead of average for the period. However, weather conditions will continue to be closely monitored as wetter conditions return the Delta and Tennessee River basin, which remains saturated. In the northwestern and central Soybean Belt, dry conditions will remain ideal for spring planting, though a need for rain will increase greatly over time, according to World Weather Inc. Some hot temps are expected in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, which will accelerate drying.
90-day outlook: Demand will continue to be the long-term market driver, especially as trade unknowns linger. Traders are looking for continued progress toward trade deals, along with a biofuels mandate. Recent purchases from Pakistan and easing tensions with China lends optimism toward future demand, though concrete details will be a requirement, especially as the looming reciprocal tariff deadline approaches. Look for volatility to persist until that evidence surfaces.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.21 3/4, near the daily low and hit a contract low. For the week, July SRW lost 21 1/4 cents. July HRW wheat futures dropped 7 1/4 cents to $5.17 1/2, nearer the session low and hit a contract low. On the week, July HRW fell 23 3/4 cents. Spring wheat futures fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.93 1/2 and gave up 21 1/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: Look for follow-through technical selling pressure from the speculators early next week, following this week’s dismal price action. Monday’s midday USDA supply and demand report for May will help set the tone for trading in the grain markets’ price action early next week. U.S. wheat ending stocks are likely to come in slightly higher than in the April report, according to a Bloomberg survey. U.S. all wheat production this year is seen at 1.886 billion bushels and compares with 2.0 billion bushels in 2024. Traders will also scrutinize Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports for the latest wheat crop conditions and spring wheat planting progress.
Weather in world wheat-producing regions is a mixed bag, but presently leans price-bearish for U.S. wheat, suggesting better production prospects later this summer. World Weather today said wheat conditions in the U.S. “are improving and will continue to improve through the next week.” Dryness is a concern for non-irrigated crops in the Pacific Northwest while the Midwest soft wheat is rated favorably.
30-day outlook: Grain market traders in the coming weeks will continue to closely track potential U.S. trade deals with major countries, or lack thereof. Reports late this week said the Trump administration is considering a significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports during high-level talks in Geneva this weekend. Meantime, administration officials are indicating there are many countries lined up to get trade deals inked with the U.S. If those deals come to fruition they will likely be announced in the coming weeks. That would likely be supportive for the grain markets. However, mostly silence on the trade deals front in the coming weeks would be an ominously bearish development for the grain markets.
90-day outlook: The late-June USDA acreage updates will be coming into focus for the grain futures markets in the coming weeks. Grain traders will also be monitoring the crude oil futures market. Crude oil prices this week showed promising signs of a market bottom being in place. Continued gains in crude oil in the coming weeks would be a significantly positive signal for the grain markets, as crude oil is the leader of the raw commodity sector. Continued rallies in the U.S. stock indexes this summer would also energize the bullish speculative grain traders amid what would be keener risk appetite in the general marketplace amid the stock market strength.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 8 points to 66.61 cents, marking a 180-point weekly loss.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures faced pressure this week but ended the week on a quiet note ahead of weekend talks between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, risk appetites have firmed at the end of the week following a U.S.-U.K. trade deal. However, investors are hoping talks with China will prove constructive and lead to a timely resumption in bilateral trade. Overnight trade on Sunday could certainly prove volatile given the direction of the weekend discussions in Geneva, though Monday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report likely has traders positioned for reduced exposure.
30-day outlook: USDA reported 21% of the cotton crop was planted as of May 4, up six points on the week and a point ahead of the five-year average. Planting efforts will continue to be monitored closely as conditions in the Delta and Tennessee River basin continue to prove too wet. However, in West Texas planting prospects have recently improved due to rains, though more is needed in the dryland areas of the southwest, according to World Weather Inc. South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend received some much-needed rain Thursday and most of that has ended, with dry weather expected today and to prevail for up to ten days.
90-day outlook: While it’s not uncommon for export sales to decline as the marketing-year winds down, cotton exports have proven especially lackluster throughout the past several months. However, as the growing season progresses amid much lower acres, and trade deal prospects evolve, it could certainly help catapult the natural fiber out of its recent range. However, economic effects of trade uncertainty, including increased inflation could dampen domestic demand as interest rates remain elevated, crimping disposable incomes and the appetite for products made with cotton.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.