Corn
Price action: December corn rose 9 cents to $4.69 1/2, near the daily high and hit a six-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw fresh technical buying from the speculators as a price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. Big gains in winter wheat futures today also spilled over into better buying interest in the corn market. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the corn market bulls. And it’s still a weather market in the grains—albeit not as impactful on the U.S. corn crop as it is wheat.
World Weather Inc. today said despite heat in the west into early next week and net drying in much of Midwest during the next two weeks, moist soils in place and a lack of significant heat in most areas through at least late next week “will allow corn pollination to occur favorably in much of the region and production potentials will remain quite high. Exceptions will occur in and near eastern South Dakota into Monday, where highs will reach the middle and upper 90s with some lower 100s with upper 90s extending into eastern Nebraska and nearby Iowa Friday and Saturday and the remainder of the southwestern Corn Belt Sunday and Monday. Crops in these areas will see rising levels of stress and where corn is pollinating some declines in yields are likely due to the heat, with greater stress in parts of eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota where soil moisture is short,” said the forecaster.
Corn traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 800,000 to 2.1 million MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.90. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.50. First resistance is seen at $4.75 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 10 3/4 cents to $12.01 3/4, near the daily high. September soybean meal rose $2.60 to $317.60, nearer the daily high. September soybean oil rose 52 points to 72.18 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw spillover buying support today from strong gains in wheat and solid gains in corn. The meal and bean oil markets mostly paused today.
The U.S. soybean crush exceeded trade expectations in June as the daily pace of processing rebounded from an eight-month low posted in May to the strongest level in three months, according to the monthly NOPA data issued today. NOPA members crushed 214.340 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 2.7% from May and up 15.7% from June 2025. Last month’s crush had been expected at 203.989 million bushels. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of June 30 fell to an eight-month low of 1.501 billion pounds, down 13.5% from stocks totaling 1.735 billion pounds at the end of May. The total was below all trade estimates.
World Weather Inc. today said showers Sunday into July 29 are not likely to bring enough rain to prevent much of the Midwest from drying down overall, while subsoil moisture in place should continue to support the needs of most crops outside of the drier areas of the northwest Corn Belt, where stress to crops should increase and yield potentials likely decline. Cooling will occur next Tuesday and much of the Midwest will see mild temperatures Tuesday into late next week. By early August a larger part of the Midwest will be in need of rain to maintain the best possible yield potentials.
Soybean traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. bean sales of 700,000 to 2 million MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.07 1/4 and then at $12.14. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.84 3/4 and then at $11.72 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $318.80 and then at this week’s high of $321.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $313.90 and then at this week’s low of $311.10.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend back in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 72.73 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 70.32 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 32 1/2 cents to $6.77 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month high. September HRW rose 42 cents to $7.20, near the daily high and hit a two-month high. September spring wheat rose 25 1/4 cents to $6.83 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw strong buying interest as Ukrainian forces hit multiple Russian vessels in the Black Sea Wednesday as Kyiv expands the scope of its naval attacks against Moscow. “The first round of the naval battle is over” after Ukraine hit more than 100 Russia-linked ships in the Sea of Azov in recent days, drone unit commander Robert Brovdi said in a statement on Telegram and as reported by Bloomberg. Ukraine has lost about a third of its capacity to export grain via its vital Black Sea ports due to intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks, the country’s main farmers’ union said. Meantime, France’s farm ministry on Wednesday forecast the country’s 2026 soft wheat production at 32.0 MMT, down 4% from last year and 2% below the five-year average, according to Reuters. A weaker U.S. dollar index today was also supportive for wheat futures.
World weather today said improved wheat harvest weather is likely in the central U.S. Plains and Midwest, but dryness in the northern Plains may stress some wheat and the region needs to be closely monitored. Not much rain is expected in spring wheat areas for a while. Some crops in southern Canada’s Prairies will also dry down for about a week and then receive some welcome rain. Temperatures will be warm for a while. Western Europe weather has been hot and dry recently, stressing some crops. However, most of the crops outside of France had sufficient subsoil moisture to support small grain development without much concern. Portions of France have been too dry and hot recently for ideal winter wheat and barley conditions. The crop will be smaller than originally expected, though much of the adverse conditions came late in the season after reproduction which may limit the impact of heat and dryness on the crop.
Wheat traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 275,000 to 600,000 MT in all marketing years..
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.29 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.82 3/4 and then at $6.90. First support is seen at $6.65 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.58. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.59 1/4. First resistance is seen at $7.25 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 68 points to 81.55 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more technical buying amid a price uptrend that remains in place on the daily bar chart. Rallies in the grain futures markets also spilled over into better buying interest for cotton today. A drop in the U.S. dollar index today was also supportive for the cotton market, as was another tamer U.S. inflation report that should work to keep consumer confidence levels up.
World Weather Inc. today said daily showers will continue into Saturday in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, and southern parts of west Texas will see further improvements in soil and cotton conditions. Many northern parts of west Texas will also benefit from at least some rain with rain in southwestern Oklahoma and the Panhandle mostly light with many areas dry. Outside of some infrequent showers, Sunday into July 29 will be dry most often and greater rain will be needed soon to prevent the moisture from the coming rain from being lost to evaporation as well as to improve conditions for cotton in the Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma. The Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will benefit from rain into Thursday that will induce further increases in soil moisture and allow cotton to develop favorably into at least late this month while South Texas misses much of the rain and likely sees rising crop stress during the next two weeks.
Cotton traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 82.96 cents and then at 84.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 80.25 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.