Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $4.12 1/4, near the daily low and hit another contract low. For the week, December corn lost 24 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: A new contract low in December corn, along with the technically bearish weekly low close, sets up the market for more follow-through selling pressure early next week. Today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report did not offer much for the bulls. The agency cut old-crop corn carryover by 25 million bu. from last month, but it was still 7 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA did raise U.S. corn exports by 100 million bu., to 2.75 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.30, down a nickel from last month. Meantime, new-crop corn carryover was taken down 90 million bu. from last month and is 60 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA put the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.20, unchanged from last month.
30-day outlook: Weather in the U.S. midwest still leans firmly price-bearish, with extended forecasts not projecting any serious threats to a corn crop that is at present getting soil moisture reserves boosted almost by the day. World Weather Inc. today said “significant rain and a bolstering of soil moisture occurred from Thursday into this morning from east-central and northeastern Nebraska and nearby South Dakota through northern Illinois and portions of southern Wisconsin.” The bottom line to the two-week outlook remains favorable for crops in much of the Midwest, “where a lack of significant heat along with regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next ten days will leave soil moisture favorable and production potentials high,” said the forecaster.
90-day outlook: Risk appetite in the general marketplace did erode late this week. President Donald Trump announced Thursday the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, effective Aug. 1. Trump has also threatened other major trading partners with new tariffs if new deals are not moving forward. This situation is limiting buying interest in corn futures. On the positive side, strong export demand for U.S. corn continues, with the weekly export sales pace exceeding USDA’s estimate by a notable margin. Corn export sales rose to the highest level since May and were an all-time high for the week ended July 3, according to the government’s weekly sales data. The corn market bulls are hoping the strong export pace will at least put in a price floor in the corn market soon.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans fell 8 1/4 cents to $10.04 1/4 and saw the largest weekly loss since the week ended July 12, 2024, at 51 1/4 cents. August soymeal slid $1.10 to $270.30 and gave up $7.10 on the week, while August soyoil rose 26 points to 53.75 cents, but still marked an 80-cent weekly loss.
5-day outlook: Soybeans forged a fresh for-the-move low immediately after USDA’s late-morning supply and demand update, but quickly bounced from the low, which formed below the psychological $10.00 area. However, near-term oversold conditions limited sellers to end the week.
USDA reported old-crop ending stocks were unchanged from June, which was shy of analysts’ average pre-report estimate of 358 million bu. No changes were made to old-crop supply, though exports were increased 15 million bu. To 1.865 billion bu. on the demand side of the balance sheet. However, that increase was offset by a 15-million-bu. Cut to estimated residual use to 27 million bu. Meanwhile, new-crop ensign stocks rose 15 million bu. from June and were 8 million bu. Above the average pre-report estimate. Total supply was lowered 5 million bu. Amid a light downside adjustment in harvested acres from the June Acreage Report. New-crop crush was projected up 50 million bu. From June to 2.54 billion bu., though exports were slashed by 70 million bu. To 1.745 billion.
30-day outlook: USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, which was unchanged from the previous week while 7% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” While the soybean crop is in decent shape, weather during the latter half of July and August will determine yield and overall production.
World Weather Inc. maintains the two-week outlook remains favorable for crops in much of the Midwest where a lack of significant heat along with regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next ten days, which will leave soil moisture favorable and production potentials high.
90-day outlook: Exports will be closely monitored over the coming months as trade deals or lack thereof dictate the flow of commodities. Soybean exports of late have proven robust despite the calendar indicating a typically seasonal lull amid freshly harvested South American supplies. A diving U.S. dollar and lower prices have undoubtedly stirred export demand, with some buying attributed to countries securing supplies ahead of potential tariffs.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat futures fell 9 1/2 cents to $5.65 1/2, near the session low and for the week down 12 3/4 cents. December HRW wheat futures lost 10 cents to $5.48 1/4 and gave up 12 1/2 cents on the week. December spring wheat fell 18 cents to $6.1 3/4, and down 33 1/4 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: Wheat futures saw sharp declines across the board after the monthly crop production report showed an increased production forecast for the U.S. Without a negative weather event on the horizon and harvest in full swing on winter wheat, prices look to remain bearish in the short term.Weather conditions for the next week across much of the Midwest are expected to be cooler than usual, with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. Spring wheat condition in Montana has declined each week since the start of June, mainly due to drought conditions. The chance for rainfall in the 10 day forecast gives an opportunity for conditions to reverse that trend. Weather in Russia has improved wheat conditions, causing SovEcon to raise their forecast for wheat exports by 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 42.9 MMT.
30-day outlook: USDA released their first 2025 production forecast with all wheat classes today. The production forecast increased 8 million bushels from last month to 1,929 million bushels Despite the increase in production and beginning stocks, 2025/2026 ending stocks were forecast 8 million bushels lower from June mostly due to an increase in expected exports by 25 million bushels. Realizing the increase in exports will likely require trade deals to be announced by the new August 1 deadline of tariffs taking effect. Keeping an eye on the corn and soybean markets effects on the wheat futures will also be important throughout July.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index remains near the 3 year low despite gains in the last week, which may help achieve the increased forecasted exports from the U.S. Although it is still early in the crop year, total commitments are currently outpacing last year at this time by 22 million bushels, and are the highest for this time of year since 2019. However, Russia dropping their wheat export tax for the time being may temper this increased pace as they increase worldwide supply.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 31 points to 67.42 cents, and ended the week down 107 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures favored the downside but held the recent sideways pattern amid consolidation. Technical headwinds continue to loom for cotton amid the sideways trading action. A new catalyst is likely required to push prices out of that trading range. Price action following USDA’s supply and demand update earlier today was not what the bulls were looking for. However, the government did lower old-crop ending stocks by 300,000 bales from June, making no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. Though on the demand side exports were increased 300,000 bales, to 11.8 million. Meanwhile, new-crop carryover rose 300,000 bales from last month amid increased production of 600,000 bales due to an increase in harvested acres from the June Acreage Report. No changes were made to the demand side of the new-crop balance sheet.
Next week, traders will continue to process today’s report and continue to look towards condition ratings and advancements or lack thereof on the trade front.
30-day outlook: USDA rated the cotton crop as 52% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, which was up a point from the previous week but 7 points above the same week last year. While current ratings are fairly good currently, traders will continue to monitor weather closely as the growing season progresses, especially as the hurricane season approaches.
World Weather Inc. reports West Texas cotton needs warmer temps and additional rainfall to induce ideal cotton development, while the Texas Blacklands should see a favorable mix of weather over the next ten days along with the U.S. Delta and southeastern states.
90-day outlook: U.S. and global economic conditions will be the long-term focus as the U.S. continues to contain or get a grip on inflation, while China continues to battle deflationary conditions. Traders will continue to closely monitor CPI and other inflationary markers to gain insight into potential rate cuts. Meanwhile, U.S. cotton exports will be closely monitored, which will likely be dictated by trade deals.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.