Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 6 cents to $4.15 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a four-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market got a bearish USDA quarterly grain stocks report today that took away what little wind the bulls had left in their sails. The agency reported U.S. corn stocks in all positions came in 195 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and well above the top of the analysts’ range. Stocks at 1.532 billion are down 231 million bu. (13.1%) from year-ago.
USDA rated the U.S. corn crop as 66% “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sept. 28, unchanged from last week. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined .4 points to 369.9 but remains 3.9 points ahead of year ago. Meanwhile, USDA reported harvest was 18% complete, one point behind the five-year average.
Argentina’s 2025-26 corn production is estimated at 58 MMT, up from 49 MMT during the previous harvest season, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable drying conditions are likely across the U.S. Midwest during the next week, supporting summer crop maturation and good harvest progress. The exception will be in northwestern parts of the region where rain is expected from Nebraska to the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota late this week and into the weekend. A larger part of the northern and western Midwest will get rain next week while the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and lower eastern Midwest stay dry for at least 10 days.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.20 and then at this week’s high of $4.22 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.14 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 8 3/4 cents to $10.01 3/4, near the daily low and hit a six-week low. December soybean meal lost $2.10 to $273.30, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close. December soybean oil fell 20 points to 49.59 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a 3.5-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw spillover selling pressure from lower corn and wheat futures prices today, despite a slightly friendly USDA quarterly grain stocks report. U.S. soybean stocks in all positions came in 6.5 million bu. below the average pre-report trade guess. Total soybean stocks at 316.5 million are down 26 million bu. (7.6%) from year-ago.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the soybean crop as 62% “good” to “excellent,” up a point from last week, and 11% “poor” to “very poor,” which was down a point from last week. On our CCI, the soybean crop increased 1.3 points to 359.1 but remains 5.8 points below year-ago. Meanwhile, USDA estimated soybean harvest to be 19% complete, up 10 percentage points on the week, but still slightly behind the five-year average of 20%.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates Argentina’s soybean production for 2025-26 will reach 48.5 MMT, down from 50.3 MMT in 2024-25.
World Weather Inc. today said warm and mostly dry Midwest U.S. weather will continue through Saturday “and crop maturation rates will be higher than usual, while aggressive harvesting occurs before a period of wetter weather occurs Sunday into Friday of next week.” The period of wetter weather Sunday into next week should not result in heavy rain in many locations, with mostly temporary interruptions to fieldwork most likely to result while the moisture will benefit soils. Early indications suggest drier weather will resume Oct. 11-14 and harvesting should quickly accelerate. Temperatures will be much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm into Friday before this weekend is a little cooler. Some frost is possible in the northwest Midwest next Tuesday.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today amid a bearish downside price breakout from a bearish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the September high of $10.52 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $9.81 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.13 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $10.25. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at $9.90.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $280.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $275.80 and then at this week’s high of $277.80. First support is seen at $272.60 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 50.25 cents and then at last week’s high of 50.77 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 48.89 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat lost 11 1/2 cents to $5.08, near the session low and hit a contract low. December HRW fell 10 1/2 cents to $4.97 3/4, near the daily low and hit a contract low. Spring wheat futures fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.62 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets sold off following a bearish USDA quarterly grain stocks report today and solid losses in corn and soybeans.
USDA forecast U.S. wheat stocks in all positions at 66 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total stocks at 2.120 billion bu. are up 128 million bu. (6.4%) from year-ago. The agency also put all U.S. wheat production at 1.985 billion bu. The trade expected 1.921 billion bu. and compares with 1.927 billion bu. in August data and 1.979 billion bu. in 2024.
USDA Monday afternoon in its weekly crop progress report said the U.S. winter wheat crop was 34% planted as of Sept. 28, up 14 points on the week, but still behind the five-year average of 36%. Emergence was estimated at 13%.
The Buenos Aires Grains exchange estimates Argentina’s 2025-26 wheat production at 22 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 20.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country unusually dry and warm weather with increasing wind speeds will deplete topsoil moisture. This will benefit summer crop maturation and harvesting. Some thunderstorm activity will occur Saturday through Monday. However, this is unlikely to reach the southern 30% of the region until the second week of the outlook. Soil moisture is good-enough to support winter wheat planting and germination. However, the need for greater rainfall will start to increase, especially in central Oklahoma and north-central Texas where soil moisture is lowest and not favorable, said the forecaster. Meantime, in the northern U.S. Plains, some rain is expected in the next seven days, mainly Saturday into Sunday. This rain event could be enough to cause some harvest delays. However, this is not expected to be a big issue. Conditions will otherwise be mostly supportive of fieldwork and harvest advancement. Temperatures will trend colder after Saturday with frosts and freezes returning to the region. No big fieldwork delays are anticipated as of right now, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.35 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.19 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.27 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.06 3/4 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $5.24. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.08 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.15 1/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.96 and then at $4.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 27 points to 65.77 cents, near mid-range after hitting a six-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market saw some short covering in a bear market today, following Monday’s losses. Gains were limited by lower grain futures markets today.
USDA’s crop progress report Monday afternoon rated the U.S. cotton crop as 47% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating declined a point to 17%. Harvest was estimated to be 16% complete, up four percentage points on the week and in line with the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said warm temperatures and limited rainfall in all of Texas during the next week to 10 days will help expedite the development of cotton in the west and support maturation and harvesting in the Blacklands. U.S. Delta crops received some rain last week that may have discolored open boll cotton fiber. Dry weather through the next week to 10 days with warm-biased temperatures should bleach the crop white again. Harvesting will resume after the crop dries down again. Cotton in the Carolinas and Virginia may have suffered a quality decline because of rain during the weekend and that which is expected through Tuesday, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 64.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.62 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 65.25 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.