Corn
Price action: December corn rose 9 3/4 cents to $4.49, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today got a bullish USDA monthly supply and demand report. In its monthly update (WASDE), the agency cut its U.S. corn crop estimate 141 million bu. from last month. The average yield declined 1.6 bu. to 179.6 bu. per acre, 6.9 bu. Below last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 88.506 million acres. USDA cut 2026-27 corn carryover 91 million bu. from October. USDA dropped total supplies 141 million bu. from last month due to the smaller corn crop estimate.
USDA also this morning reported daily sales of 312,700 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico during 2026-27. Heavy short covering was featured today.
Monday afternoon USDA said 81% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 74% a week earlier, behind the five-year average of 86% for this time of year.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier reports farmers in Brazil’s largest grain producing state of Mato Grosso are exploring alternatives to safrinha corn as a second crop in the face of climate risks. Two of the new alternative crops are sesame and mung beans, which have less water needs and lower production costs. Cordonnier maintained his South American 2026-27 corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina at 140 MMT and 60 MMT, respectively. He noted, however, that farmers in Argentina may end up planting more corn than originally intended as planting efforts are ahead of normal for this time of year.
World Weather Inc. today said timely rain in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will support crops during the next two weeks. There will continue to be low subsoil moisture present in parts of northern Brazil and that situation will be monitored, but there should be timely rain in these next two weeks. Meantime, U.S. harvest weather is improving in the western production areas where it became a little too wet earlier last week. Net drying is likely this week. The eastern Midwest, however, will trend a little wetter and cooler in the second half of this week into early next week slowing fieldwork.
Technical analysis: December corn now sees the price downtrend on the daily chart in serious jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.70. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the June low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.55 1/2 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at $4.45 and then at this week’s low of $4.38.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 39 3/4 cents to $12.28, near the daily high. December soybean meal gained $5.80 to $328.70, near the daily high. December soybean oil rose 74 points to 62.77 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw a bullish USDA report. The agency increased its U.S. soybean production estimate 13 million bu. from last month, but not as much as the trade expected. The yield rose 0.2 bu. to 53.3 bu. per acre, up 0.3 bu. from last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 85.881 million acres. Soybean carryover for 2026-27 was reduced 15 million bu. from last month. USDA raised total supplies 12 million bu. from last month due to the larger crop estimate. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA raised its export forecast 25 million bushels to 1.72 billion bushels. Heavy short covering was featured in soybeans today.
USDA also this morning reported daily sales of 150,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to Mexico during 2026-27.
USDA Monday afternoon pegged U.S. soybean harvest at 92% finished as of Sunday, up from 88% a week earlier. It was two percentage points behind the average estimate but a percentage point ahead of the five-year average.
China’s agricultural ministry raised its 2025-26 soybean import estimate to 111.62 MMT and left its 2026-27 import forecast unchanged, according to its November outlook released earlier today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, summer crop planting will be slowed by rain during the next two weeks and also in Paraguay, with some opportunities for farming activity during the drier periods. Many areas from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to central and northern Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo remain in need of rain to improve conditions for summer crop development and will benefit from regular rain through the next two weeks. Enough rain should fall to induce significant increases in soil moisture that should favorably support crop development deep into the month. Argentina will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around the occasional rounds of rain expected. The soil is moist enough in much of the country to favorably support crop development and maintain high production potentials. Santiago del Estero to central Chaco is an exception and is in need rain to improve soil moisture for crop development and some crop stress may occur until rain increases.
Technical analysis: January soybeans now see a downtrend on the daily bar chart in very serious jeopardy. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $11.84. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.30 3/4 and then at $12.42. First support is seen at $12.15 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal futures are also see a downtrend on the daily bar chart in serious jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $328.30 and then at $333.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $319.10 and then at this week’s low of $316.50.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 65.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 63.08 cents and then at 63.71 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 61.34 cents and then at 60.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 4 3/4 cents to $5.92 3/4, near mid-range. December HRW gained 1 3/4 cents to $6.34 1/4, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures rose 6 1/2 cents to $6.28 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some mild spillover buying interest from higher corn and soybean futures prices today. USDA’s monthly supply and demand report this morning showed U.S. wheat carryover increased 3 million bu. from last month. USDA left the supply side of the balance sheet unchanged this month. On the demand side, USDA decreased food use by 3 million bu. to 957 million bu. resulting in total use also falling 3 million bushels to 1.856 billion bushels. USDA puts the 2026-27 national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.20, down a dime from last month. Gains in wheat futures were somewhat limited by a rally in the U.S. dollar index following a warm U.S. CPI report this morning.
A new round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials got under way in Abu Dhabi Tuesday, with U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son in law, leading mediation efforts,Bloomberg reported.
U.S. winter wheat plantings were 89% complete as of Sunday, just below the 90% average estimate, which is also the five-year average. USDA also said 49% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent, up five percentage points from the previous week and topping the average estimate of 46%. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) for hard red winter wheat rose a substantial 11.29 points to 337.44 this week.
World Weather Inc. today said drought remains in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and a part of the northwestern and west-central Great Plains and these areas would benefit from additional moisture to induce the best establishment. Most of the Midwest crops are rated favorably and rain and snow in the eastern Midwest later this week should prove beneficial for improved crop establishment. Meantime, greater rain in Europe later this week and into the weekend will help improve winter crop establishment, although some crops may move into dormancy this season without being as well established as usual. Russia’s Southern Region winter crop areas will get moisture Wednesday into Saturday and again next week to improve establishment – mostly in the spring. Snow cover will be needed during extreme weather this winter to protect crops that may not be as well established as usual.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.85 and then at $5.75.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.49 1/2 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.22 and then at $6.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 9 points to 78.69 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw USDA trim its U.S. cotton production estimate 722,000 bales from last month to 13.175 million bales. Harvested area was unchanged at 8.164 million acres. The U.S. average yield was trimmed 15 pounds from last month to 775 pounds per acre. U.S. cotton carryover decreased 100,000 bales from last month. Total supplies declined 260,000 bales from last month due to the reduction in the cotton crop. USDA cut total use 100,000 bales due to a 100,000-bale cut to domestic mill use. USDA put the 2026-27 national average on-farm cash cotton price at 76 cents, down a penny from last month.
Buying interest in cotton futures today was squelched by a rally in the U.S. dollar index following a warm U.S. CPI report this morning that also pressured the U.S. stock indexes.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop was 71% harvested as of Sunday. The crop had 94% of bolls opening.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in south Texas and that coming over the next couple of weeks will improve planting moisture for 2027 crops, although much more will be needed during the winter to restore soil moisture and water supply. U.S. Delta drought has only been partially eased with recent precipitation and there is still a big need for moisture prior to spring 2027. El Nino should bring greater moisture to at least southern parts of the region this winter. There is also some need for more moisture in the southeastern U.S. where dryness recently has supported the harvest, but has the ground quite dry in some areas. West Texas also needs more moisture, although that which fell a week ago was welcome. Favorable harvest weather is likely over the coming week. Arizona and southern California will be dry through this workweek and then some weekend rain may evolve to disrupt harvesting.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 79.90 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.50 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.